[ennui2]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Keith_McClary', 'Y')ou are a true believer in a couple of fringe ideologies, but otherwise totally go with the accepted wisdom (= official gubmint line) and dismiss any contrary thoughts as "tinfoil".
Is that a fair description of your world view?

[Keith_McClary]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ennui2', 'T')infoil isn't accepted wisdom to anyone other than tinfoilers.

[ennui2]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Keith_McClary', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ennui2', 'T')infoil isn't accepted wisdom to anyone other than tinfoilers.

[Tanada]

I have yet to see a main stream Politician admit that Oil even has a limit, let alone that we are pushing pretty hard at those limits for the last decade.

[ennui2]

Keyword: Mainstream.

Roscoe Bartlett made many speeches on the issue. Now he's bugged out. He's more of a hardcore doomer than most here, and a lot of it is really more motivated by religion than science, based on the video I watched that he produced.

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/ ... b9y8flVhBc

By the sound of the article, once peak oil receded from the headlines, he just moved onto whatever doomer fix he could get a handle on. Not a very good spokesperson for the issue.

[MonteQuest]

Is it worth reminding everyone that PO is an economic crisis, not an energy crisis? Much of the effects of PO will manifest long before the peak is in our rear view mirror. Rockman was right when he said we have been seeing the effects for the last thirty years. The world runs on oil which is fueled by debt expansion.

[ennui2]

I'm sure Pstarr will welcome this generic analysis with open arms. It's broad to the point of useless, I'm afraid.

[dolanbaker]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ennui2', 'I')'m sure Pstarr will welcome this generic analysis with open arms. It's broad to the point of useless, I'm afraid.

[Pops]

Good morning all.

In my opinion is the global glut from 85-2005 doesn't say much at all about what might happen post peak. I know, on a PO site, doom one upmanship makes it sage to say that not only are we dead but that we've been so for years and are just too stupid to realise. As well, people have been trying to shoehorn any and every event into PO Doom for a decade. Personally I don't think any of that is necessary.

PO is pretty well evident in the 10 years record prices and flatline in conventional production, all that's left is the shouting— i.e.: decline.

My guess is we aren't likely to have a 20 year global glut post decline like we did '85-'05.* Real prices were lower between '85-05 than 1950! Not too Peaky IMHO.

Yeah the US peaked in 1970, but when the world peaks we likely won't be ordering up a tanker-full from Saturn.*




Overall demand fell in the 70-80s because there were huge efficiencies to be gained that we'd never had reason to consider before. But the decline was mostly in industry and power generation uses, transport was not much affected. Transport fuels consumption is pretty rigid short term. But when we pontificate something like "30 years now", it simplistically ignores all other factors— like the historic increase, then decline in workforce participation over the same period.

In the US, miles traveled has been flat the last 7 years post-recession, dwarfing the little blips in growth during the embargoes. Obviously the prices have been higher, longer than in the '70s. But also the workforce change is in exactly the opposite direction, rising then, falling now.

I like this second chart a lot because it illustrates the correlation between miles driven and the falling workforce participation starting in the mid-90s. Participation peaked then fell, and then it fell precipitously post recession... flatlining the average miles right along with the number of commuters. Oil price was a factor but not the only one.




My thought is conventional decline will tell the tale. We won't need to look very hard for peak oil, won't need to shoehorn every dot into the matrix, and I'm pretty sure won't be drawing parallels to the '80s.


http://euanmearns.com/a-new-peak-in-con ... roduction/


*Never say "never"! LOL

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '[')u]oughtdis werkfoe

[ROCKMAN]

"Peak oil affects different nations and economies very differently dependent on that societies dependence on oil." Which is just another way to say PO has already hit somewhere sometime...in some cases decades ago. Let's be honest: PO is typically only an issue if it hits YOU. lol. In that sense the date of global PO is no more important then when the US hit PO over 4 decades ago. After all 28 years after US PO we had one of the lowest oil prices we had seen in more then 3 decades. As long as the US economy can outbid other economies we'll not be too strongly affected. At least until the higb prices catch up with us. But, so far, the recovery from those high prices haven't been as slow as for many other evonomies. At end of the day it isn't very ctitical how high global oil production might be as the ability to afford the energy needed for an economy to sustain itself. Consider that today the world is producing more oil then ever before yet there are societies still suffering from "PO".

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', 'I')n that sense the date of global PO is no more important then when the US hit PO over 4 decades ago.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', ' ')When US production peaked we simply began importing.

[ROCKMAN]

Actually the US has been importing oil since 1910. But US net oil imports were insignificant prior to 1945. https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafH ... rntus2&f=a

From there it gradually increased to about 1.8 mm bopd in 1971 and then jumped to around 6 mm bopd by 1980. Then down to less than 3 mm bopd with the recession.
and the building again until 2009 when it fell again. Interesting that the first drop correlated with a high oil price period followed by a recession. And now we have a decrease again followed by a high oil price period. But the drop in net oil imports in the early 80's didn't coincide with a significant increase in production: it was a result in a declining domestic demand. Even more interesting: US oil consumption began decreasing in 2008 as a result of higher oil prices which also created increased domestic production. So a decrease in domestic demand coming on at the same time we have a significant increase in domestic production leading to a decrease in oil imports.

The country consuming a very disproportionate volume of global oil production increasing its production while consumption decreases. And few saw that as a potential for a collapse of global oil prices? Oh...that's right: the low prices area result of the KSA evil plan to destroy Chesapeake. lol.

[Pops]

I think so, we already had 2/3 or something way back and still wanted more, lol

PS, beat me to it ROCk

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCK', 'O')h...that's right: the low prices area result of the KSA evil plan to destroy Chesapeake. lol.

[ralfy]

Given production per capita, peak oil took place decades ago.