[Subjectivist]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'I') think forward markets are good, they add liquidity and predictability, both are beneficial. I don't mind the gamblers (as long as they are playing with their own chips)

What I don't know is at what level the position limits should be set. Should they be somewhere around the same number of deliverable contracts? 10 time as many? 100? 1,000?

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'P')roducers don't sell future contracts. They sell oil. Speculators sell futures contracts . . . to each other.

[Pops]

The argument isn't that oil price is controlled by speculators, but that volatility is magnified by too much unregulated speculation to everyone's disadvantage but the speculators. I'm surprised you continue to take up for speculators who add nothing except volatility and distortion. I see your argument totally centered on a fear that any chink in the story of PO=2005 means the whole idea collapses.

Don't worry, PO is alive and well.

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '[')url=http://www.wsj.com/articles/oil-companies-reap-large-gains-after-cashing-in-hedging-bets-1427397947]Oil Companies Reap Large Gains After Cashing In Hedging Bets[/url]
What does that prove, Pops?

[ennui2]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '
')What do you mean? You said oil producers don't hedge and I showed you they do. You said futures contracts don't affect price and I showed that right now production is propped up by profits from contracts sold last year.

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'E')stimates vary but typically industry sources concur that
90-95% of all crude oil and oil products are sold under term
contracts. ...
The balance, 5-10%, is sold on the spot market. ...

Typically, spot sales are surpluses or amounts that a
producer has not committed to sell on a term basis or
amounts that do not “fit” scheduled sales. Buyers may also
have under- or over-estimated their consumption and may
have oil surpluses to sell or shortages to cover. ...

A variety of derivatives instruments are available that allow
people to lock in or hedge a price for oil deliveries in the
future. These include forwards, futures, options and swaps.

[Tanada]

The thing uppermost in my thoughts on the topic are, how will my local, State and Federal governments react when Peak becomes undeniable?

Back in 2008 there was a surprising chain of events that unfolded when prices went sky high. The county I was living in laid off 65 percent of the Sheriff Deputy officers to save money on patrolling squad cars. The county seat only laid off about 20 percent of their officers, but street repairs almost stopped and they went through and eliminated stoplight signals at many intersections returning them to the four way stop signs of the 1950's.

What will the reaction be this time?

[KingM]

Are people still going to be posting to this thread in another decade, when oil prices are somewhere between $50 and $100?

The collapse is coming! Any day now . . .

[ennui2]

A site like this that only has about a half-dozen regular posters constitutes as a ghost-town already. Frankly, the main reason I came back here is boredom, because current-events don't really justify a very high doom-o-meter. For AGW, yes, but not peak-oil proper. I don't feel I'm learning much here that I can't learn elsewhere. Most of the people come here to bond over fringe ideology and joust with the few dissenters. It's all about "isn't this (country|politican|political party|ideology|demographic group|economic-system) terrible?" Basically an eternal whine-fest.

[ROCKMAN]

It still makes me grin when I see the title of this post. To think how many folks don't really understand that they've been dealing with the important aspects of PO for over 30 years. It's as if so many folks really think they are waiting for something different to happen then what they've been experiencing for decades: high prices, low prices, drilling booms/busts, oil wars, political instability in oil exporting countries, wasted tax payer monies, high/low unemployment, etc. etc.

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ennui2', 'I')'m just here for the ad homs...

[Keith_McClary]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ennui2', 'A') site like this that only has about a half-dozen regular posters constitutes as a ghost-town already. Frankly, the main reason I came back here is boredom, because current-events don't really justify a very high doom-o-meter. For AGW, yes, but not peak-oil proper. I don't feel I'm learning much here that I can't learn elsewhere. Most of the people come here to bond over fringe ideology and joust with the few dissenters. It's all about "isn't this (country|politican|political party|ideology|demographic group|economic-system) terrible?" Basically an eternal whine-fest.

[KingM]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KingM', 'A')re people still going to be posting to this thread in another decade, when oil prices are somewhere between $50 and $100?

The collapse is coming! Any day now . . .