[lorenzo]

Which professional category will be made "redundant" first and will feel that something's wrong, fastest?

Mind you, this is only a selection of professional categories. But I have the feeling those will be affected more seriously than say hard scientists, military, or law enforcement.

[killJOY]

You made my day by having the psychotherapist category listed first. I checked that one just because I can't stand the whole lot of them. Pseudoscience. Blah.

[Wildwell]

The areas at risk are as follows:

Short/medium term

Airlines – high fuel costs mean more costs
Road freight - high fuel costs mean more costs
Designers, advertising and media – Companies squeeze costs and cut back on these budgets first


Medium term/long

Therapists – when people have less money to spend they cut back on luxury services.
Some support staff in order to reduce costs
Some customer service staff

The really big danger area is Airlines and Tourism.

I think the area which will gain is farming, IT and internet. Print media will shrink and is shrinking now.

[Riverside]

I would have to say truck drivers. You will see small companies and owner/operators folding, and large companies raising rates.

Last year dh worked for a small trucking company with 9 drivers. When diesel hit $2.10 they laid off 2 drivers. He left months ago, I don't know how they are doing with prices at $2.40. Right now he works for a national carrier. The problem is he is hauling dog food to a national pet store. How long do you think this pet store will be in business when people realize they can get Fido's food at "China Mart"? Especially when that savings is needed to go toward the food budget.

I think there will be massive job losses in transportation, then small bussiness and "niche" markets failing.

Carla

[Jack]

I noticed that 2,000,000 tourists visited the Alamo, in San Antonio, Texas last year. That represents a lot of revenue - not only to hotels and restaurants, but to all the employees hired by those organizations. Additionally, the city's budget depends on revenue from those operations.

So if gasoline goes to a mere $3.00 per gallon, and if airfares increase substantially, what happens to tourism? Suppose the 2E6 tourists decline to 1.5E6. How much unemployment does that imply? A lot, I think. And San Antonio is not alone in hitching its wagon to the tourism star.

[PenultimateManStanding]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('killJOY', 'Y')ou made my day by having the psychotherapist category listed first. I checked that one just because I can't stand the whole lot of them. Pseudoscience. Blah.

[trespam]

I hope the first thing to go is these stupid speculative waste of time polls.

[Trab]

I didn't see the option for lawyers...

[PenultimateManStanding]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Trab', 'I') didn't see the option for lawyers...

[trespam]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PenultimateManStanding', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Trab', 'I') didn't see the option for lawyers...

[DomusAlbion]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('killJOY', 'Y')ou made my day by having the psychotherapist category listed first. I checked that one just because I can't stand the whole lot of them. Pseudoscience. Blah.

[Tyler_JC]

Tourism is on its way out. Only the rich will be able to afford to travel long distances for no purpose other than recreation. Millions of people are about to lose their jobs in the tourism industry.

Think about a motel. Do you really need 3 of them in your town if no one ever drives 600 miles to visit grandma?

What about Disney World? Will people be willing to shell out big bucks just to see Mickey?

[TrueKaiser]

truckers first.
their main job is useing gas.

[DomusAlbion]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TrueKaiser', 't')ruckers first.
their main job is useing gas.

[maverickdoc]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DomusAlbion', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TrueKaiser', 't')ruckers first.
their main job is useing gas.

[trespam]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('maverickdoc', '
')I am with Domus, I think "luxury" jobs will go first like tourism, pet grooming etc. Things one can easily live without. I think we are already seeing signs of this.

[TrueKaiser]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DomusAlbion', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TrueKaiser', 't')ruckers first.
their main job is useing gas.

[shortonoil]

"The first thing we do is hang all the lawyers"
King Lear

[mgibbons19]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('trespam', '
')So the first thing we're going to see: less volume for new construction. Some impact on tourism. I think people will continue to travel on special trips, but they will probably travel more locally. Get away at the ocean or a lake or something like that, not jump on a friggen airplane to spend three days in Mexico or the Bahamas.

[gg3]

Killjoy, you shot yourself in the foot and disproved your own hypothesis.

You dislike psychology & social sciences, and explain the dislike by calling them psuedosciences. Then you let your emotional attitude toward those fields influence your judgement about which field would suffer first during a downturn or crash.

"I don't like Bob. Therefore I think Bob will die early in a flu pandemic." Do you see the illogic of that?

It illustrates precisely the point that the cognitive and social sciences are in fact relevant to how humans face the coming crises. Even a tiny bit of self-knowledge is sufficient to protect one against the more blatant types of faulty reasoning.