[gg3]

I don't think any one sector will take a unilateral hit. Rather, a generalized economic contraction with some sectors getting hit harder than others.

It surprised me to see the omission of the financial sector from the list. In terms of banking, globalized institutions like Citi and BofA will be hit hard; local institutions with local customer bases will vary according to local conditions. The "abstraction layer" whose activities more closely resemble gambling, will get hit particularly hard.

Luxury products & services will get hit hard. First, big-ticket luxury goods with high energy consumption, for which SUVs are emblematic. Monster houses will be converted into duplexes, triplexes, and so on. Appliance manufacturers will find demand shifting toward smaller & more efficient units. Sales of large refrigerators and clothes dryers will decline.

Next, the items I call "peripheral services" such as pet grooming, nail parlours, things that play to vanity. People will willingly cut these out before they scale back their yearly vacations.

However, tourism comes next. Or perhaps first, depending on the bird flu pandemic, which will kill international tourism almost entirely. Vacations will shift toward closer-to-home. Large centralized theme parks such as Disney will get hit hard; we will see more local "amusement parks" and these will make subtle use of energy efficient technologies, typically by making better use of gravity and inertia on amusement rides.

We will also see an increase in vacation and travel types that depend on buses or trains, and these will favor regional destinations such as casinos and amusement parks, and ski resorts in those areas that can function with no or minimal snow-making and trail grooming. Camping will be popular, along with other vacation types that are less energy-intensive.

Pleasure boating will shift away from powered craft, toward sailing, including sailboarding and similar smaller-scale applications.

Purchasing of appliances, computers, telecoms hardware, furniture, and so on, will bifurcate: the "commodity sector" driven by low prices, will suffer due to structural price increases and therefore be harder to sustain. High value-added suppliers will expand slightly. A new "middle" will arise of medium-quality goods at medium prices, i.e. more expensive than commodity, less expensive than high value-added. (Disclosure: my work is in telecoms: PBX, voicemail, telecommuter systems; high value-added, not commodity; and I am presently seeing these trends in action, including the expansion of the "middle.")

Construction materials will shift somewhat. We already see shortages of cement and steel. Expect some consolidation of supply chains and their respective infrastructure supply layer. Also expect new business opportunities for smaller-scale suppliers and their respective infrastructure layers. In general a downscaling of building activity (smaller unit-sizes of built space) and all that goes with it.

Therapists etc. will actually see an increase in business. Economic stresses disrupt individual and family life more than almost any other single factor. Those with health insurance will still have access. Conditions such as chronic stress and family dysfunctions that are not treatable with medications, will still require one-on-one counseling. Some of this will shift to churches and similar institutions (as is presently happening), but much will remain in the realm of counseling services as presently structured.

Anything IT-related will grow by leaps and bounds, as information more and more substitutes for transportation.

Anything security-related will also grow similarly, particularly in urban ares subject to higher crime rates.

[lorenzo]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', 'T')ourism is on its way out.

[lorenzo]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('trespam', 'I') hope the first thing to go is these stupid speculative waste of time polls.

[trespam]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lorenzo', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('trespam', 'I') hope the first thing to go is these stupid speculative waste of time polls.