[copious.abundance]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('basil_hayden', 'N')ah, it's all the trucks delivering stuff to North Dakota wellheads and trucking the oil back to distribution facilities.

37 trucks of stuff per wellhead, plus frack water (~1 million gallons per frack at about 6 thousand gallons per trip) then trucking the crude to the railroads, which also run on distillate. I'Il bet that alone could account for increased distillate demand,and the hokey GDP increases lately.

2nd month in a row of 13+ million auto sales SAAR (last month was 13.1 million)

Chrysler sets pace as industry sales climb 8%
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]Sales hit a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 13.26 million units, just shy of the 2011 high of 13.29 million rate set in February.

It was also the second consecutive month and fifth month this year the SAAR has topped 13 million units.

The sales rate hit a 2011 low of 11.54 million units in June – when Japanese stockpiles neared lows following the March earthquake in Japan.

[basil_hayden]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('basil_hayden', 'N')ah, it's all the trucks delivering stuff to North Dakota wellheads and trucking the oil back to distribution facilities.

37 trucks of stuff per wellhead, plus frack water (~1 million gallons per frack at about 6 thousand gallons per trip) then trucking the crude to the railroads, which also run on distillate. I'Il bet that alone could account for increased distillate demand,and the hokey GDP increases lately.

[copious.abundance]

Here's a chart of North Dakota No.2 diesel sales though August. It did, in fact, take a big leap in August.


Data

Here's the same data set for the entire US


Data

North Dakota's 2,230.7K barrels accounts for 1.55% of the US's 143,379.8K barrels of consumption, as of August. Now, let'[s look at this graph again:



The past several weeks, distillate demand has increased by some 430K barrels/day, or about 12,900K barrels per month. So, North Dakota's ~2,231K diesel consumption would have had to increase more than 5-fold in just a month to account for the entire increase in US distillate consumption the past month.

Unlikely.

[basil_hayden]

But the proppant comes from China via California or as sand from Minnesota; and the oil leaves ND to other parts of the country. And the people are coming from all over. You can't measure the increase strictly from ND and make a statement regarding the economic impact of the happenings in that state. We're talking a million more truckloads per year, minimum, plus locomotives (that's trains for AntiDoomer). That's a lot of freaking diesel. Also, after Snowtober, expect kerosene sales to be up, another distillate. Most folks in CT at least are heating this week with kerosene heaters (except for the dummies using BBQ grills and filling the ERs with CO poisoning). What we're witnessing in ND is the most inefficient oil boom ever, at this point; you can't discount its effect on GDP, it is certainly measurable.

Tell you what though, as fracking doesn't happen in the winter, let's keep an eye on the drop I expect in about a month, and the increase in Spring.

[copious.abundance]

I'm sure that other stuff you mentioned will add some to the totals I outlined, but the US is just too big with too many trucks and trains and too much other activity for one oil play, no matter how active it suddenly got, to account for such a sizable increase. As I said before, I've no doubt it accounts for some of it, but it's fantastically unlikely to account for all of it or even most of it.

[copious.abundance]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('basil_hayden', 'F')acetious? Not one bit - look at the numbers of trucks per well.

37 for equipment
100 for proppant
200 for frack water

multiply by the number of active rigs 200, 30 days per well

67,400 truckloads per month, easy

and 250,000 barrels a day out of the ND via truck to railroad cars (the other 250,000 via pipeline)

2100 more truck loads

This alone could explain upward GDP and economic activity while the rest of the USA sinks further in the pit.

...

[copious.abundance]

And, related to the article I posted above, here's something else which could account for some of the increased distillate consumption the past several weeks: Increased deliveries of new cars.

[basil_hayden]

I was looking more at the whole year than yet another quarter that will be revised downward some time in the future.

New cars? Amazing how replacing losses from such things as a hurricane can end up counting as GDP growth.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('basil_hayden', 'I') was looking more at the whole year than yet another quarter that will be revised downward some time in the future.

[Armageddon]

GDP was never intended to measure the health of an economy. Anytime debt constitues growth, it is flawed. That's like somebody charging $100,000 on their credit cards and calling themselves wealthy.

[peripato]

U.S. Food-Stamp Use Reaches Record 45.8 Million, USDA Says
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he number of Americans receiving food stamps reached a record 45.8 million in August, the government said.
The figure was 1.1 percent higher than the previous month and 8.1 percent more than a year earlier, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said today in a report on its website. Assistance rolls are increasing as joblessness remains at 9.1 percent of the workforce.
Texas had the most food-stamp recipients in August, at 4.12 million, followed by California with 3.82 million, according to the USDA. Spending was a record $6.13 billion.
The number of Americans receiving food stamps under the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program has set records every month but one since December 2008.

[Armageddon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('peripato', '[')url=http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-01/u-s-food-stamp-use-reaches-record-45-8-million-usda-says.html]U.S. Food-Stamp Use Reaches Record 45.8 Million, USDA Says[/url]
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he number of Americans receiving food stamps reached a record 45.8 million in August, the government said.
The figure was 1.1 percent higher than the previous month and 8.1 percent more than a year earlier, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said today in a report on its website. Assistance rolls are increasing as joblessness remains at 9.1 percent of the workforce.
Texas had the most food-stamp recipients in August, at 4.12 million, followed by California with 3.82 million, according to the USDA. Spending was a record $6.13 billion.
The number of Americans receiving food stamps under the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program has set records every month but one since December 2008.

[peripato]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('peripato', '[')url=http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-01/u-s-food-stamp-use-reaches-record-45-8-million-usda-says.html]U.S. Food-Stamp Use Reaches Record 45.8 Million, USDA Says[/url]
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he number of Americans receiving food stamps reached a record 45.8 million in August, the government said.
The figure was 1.1 percent higher than the previous month and 8.1 percent more than a year earlier, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said today in a report on its website. Assistance rolls are increasing as joblessness remains at 9.1 percent of the workforce.
Texas had the most food-stamp recipients in August, at 4.12 million, followed by California with 3.82 million, according to the USDA. Spending was a record $6.13 billion.
The number of Americans receiving food stamps under the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program has set records every month but one since December 2008.

[basil_hayden]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', 'L')et's see if Oily shows up here this Fall and Winter when ts starts htf.

[Armageddon]

Here is what's propping up the economy:

LPS Mortgage Monitor: Over 4 Million Loans 90+ Days Delinquent or in Foreclosure, 72% in Foreclosure Not Made Payment for at Least 1 Year

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'F')oreclosure timelines continue to increase across the board - almost 40 percent of loans in foreclosure have not made a payment in two years, and 72 percent have not made a payment in a year or more. New problem loan rates increased sharply over the last two months, with 1.6 percent of loans that were current six months ago now 60 or more days delinquent or in foreclosure.

[copious.abundance]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('basil_hayden', 'G')ee, OilFinder2, I'm sorry your lack of intuition is unable to fill in the blanks relating to the "big picture".

Above is a post of yours a whole two pages back in this thread.

It relates the growth of the US GDP in the third quarter by 2.5%.

To recap, I attribute at least 3/4 of that to the Bakken alone.

[sereniaL]

This sounds like good news for a change, we must pursue development of Renewable energy. Anyway I've read some articles about this topic, please allow me to share it here. For those wondering where to go to escape the fear of the downturn, consider North Dakota. CNN notes that while six-figure salaries are possible, the path to the cash isn't really for every person. The North Dakota oil boom, centered on the Bakken oil development, has kept the state's joblessness rate the lowest in the United States at 3.5 percent. Large oil signifies a large number of jobs - if candidates can hack grueling hours, lack of housing and harsh winter months. Article resource: North Dakota oil boom brings jobs aplenty. This article was wonderful news, A positive out-look is essential in order to overcome fossil dependence. We're a very successful and entrepreneurial country who has always followed through when we need to. And alternative energy will be just another successful chapter, in our history.

[peripato]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sereniaL', 'T')his sounds like good news for a change, we must pursue development of Renewable energy. Anyway I've read some articles about this topic, please allow me to share it here. For those wondering where to go to escape the fear of the downturn, consider North Dakota. CNN notes that while six-figure salaries are possible, the path to the cash isn't really for every person. The North Dakota oil boom, centered on the Bakken oil development, has kept the state's joblessness rate the lowest in the United States at 3.5 percent. Large oil signifies a large number of jobs - if candidates can hack grueling hours, lack of housing and harsh winter months. Article resource: North Dakota oil boom brings jobs aplenty. This article was wonderful news, A positive out-look is essential in order to overcome fossil dependence. We're a very successful and entrepreneurial country who has always followed through when we need to. And alternative energy will be just another successful chapter, in our history.

[copious.abundance]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'M')aybe we should wait until Friday's jobs report to see if there was a big increase in employment of truck drivers.