by MrBill » Mon 09 Jul 2007, 04:33:20
Gideon wrote:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')here's no such thing as inflation.
"Inflation" is a term that is used to disguise the real issue, which is dollar devaluation.
Every day a dollar loses value.
This is not correct.
The US dollars recent devaluation against the euro cannot be explained by differences in inflation. The US dollar has also lost value against the GBP that has higher inflation. And what about when the US dollar appreciates against these currencies?
Also, the US dollar has appreciated against the JPY although inflation in the USA is nominally higher than in Japan. The yen has lost value against the euro and Sterling as well despite having lower domestic inflation. They are losing purchasing power, but not from inflation. But from a weaker currency as you surmise is the case with the US dollar.
The Canadian dollar is appreciating against these currencies despite inflation rates that are both higher and lower than theirs (GBP, JPY, USD). Within Canada, inflation in western Canada (Alberta & BC) are much higher than the national average or in central or Maritime Canada. And that is despite sharing a common currency.
Ditto for inflation levels across Europe that share a common currency.
So although US dollar devaluation against its trading partners due to the US' large current account deficits is a serious problem on its own, it does not explain away inflation, which is a separate albeit related issue.
UPDATE: on US dollar and global inflation outlook versus gold & oil prices
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')ut if inflation fears raise no eyebrows in the U.S., it's percolating elsewhere on the planet. That includes Britain, where the Bank of England just raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 5.75%, the highest in six years. It was the fifth straight increase in less than a year. And more rate hikes may be coming for England, David Brown, an economist at Bear Stearns, predicted via Reuters.
"The pace of expansion of the world economy remains robust," the BoE's statement advised. "The margin of spare capacity in businesses appears limited, and most indicators of pricing pressure remain elevated. The balance of risks to the outlook for inflation in the medium term continued to lie to the upside."
By contrast, The European Central Bank left rates unchanged, although hints of a rate hike accompanied the non action. Jean-Claude Trichet, the ECB's president, said in a prepared statement that inflation risks in the medium term are "on the upside." He explained that "as capacity utilization in the euro area economy is high and labor markets continue to improve, constraints are emerging which could lead in particular to stronger than expected wage developments."