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Under/Over on When 1 Gall.Gas>Min.Wage

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Your under/over number . . .

1 year
1
No votes
2 years
6
No votes
3 years
6
No votes
4 years
2
No votes
5 years
4
No votes
6 years
0
0%
7 years
0
0%
8 years
0
0%
More than 8 years . . .
4
No votes
 
Total votes : 23

Re: Under/Over on When 1 Gall.Gas>Min.Wage

Unread postby MrBill » Thu 05 Jul 2007, 05:08:21

The declining value of the US dollar against the yen?
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Re: Under/Over on When 1 Gall.Gas>Min.Wage

Unread postby cube » Thu 05 Jul 2007, 07:08:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Gideon', 'I') figure it's only a matter of time.

Looke at it this way: a minimum wage worker who uses 2 gallons of gas to commute to work would have to work 25% of his/her day just to pay for the gas...
How much is it for a worker who delivers pizza? :wink:

BTW a long time ago....when I was in high school I thought about getting a paper route as a part time job for the summer. You had to have a car. When I looked over the calculations and how much they paid I quited the first day and returned all of their newspapers.

You could make more working minimum wage at a pizza restaurant. :-D
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Re: Under/Over on When 1 Gall.Gas>Min.Wage

Unread postby MrBill » Thu 05 Jul 2007, 07:43:16

Gideon wrote:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'L')ooke at it this way: a minimum wage worker who uses 2 gallons of gas to commute to work would have to work 25% of his/her day just to pay for the gas...


75% profit margin. Sweet, dude! ; - )
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Re: Under/Over on When 1 Gall.Gas>Min.Wage

Unread postby mekrob » Thu 05 Jul 2007, 07:53:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', 'G')ideon wrote:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'L')ooke at it this way: a minimum wage worker who uses 2 gallons of gas to commute to work would have to work 25% of his/her day just to pay for the gas...


75% profit margin. Sweet, dude! ; - )


Add in taxes and you're left with making about $3 an hour. So you'd be willing to work for that Billy?
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Re: Under/Over on When 1 Gall.Gas>Min.Wage

Unread postby MrBill » Thu 05 Jul 2007, 09:46:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mekrob', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', 'G')ideon wrote:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'L')ooke at it this way: a minimum wage worker who uses 2 gallons of gas to commute to work would have to work 25% of his/her day just to pay for the gas...


75% profit margin. Sweet, dude! ; - )


Add in taxes and you're left with making about $3 an hour. So you'd be willing to work for that Billy?


Actually, my first job was cleaning used bricks to re-sell for 10 cents an hour. After that I cleaned toilets. It was a step-up. But I always did a good job, so I made sure my toilets were clean and did not stink!

However, more likely I would turn to a life of crime at this point in my life.

I am just fooling around a little here. But I think you hit the nail right on the head with your comments about minimum wages and taxes.

It obviously makes absolutely zero difference where you tentatively set minimum wage if the USA is running an expansionary monetary policy, which will guarantee that any wage increases are eaten up by inflation.

It's a red herring!

And there is a near zero correlation between minimum wage and the cost of gasoline. As we all know here at peak oil dot com crude oil is a finite, depleting resource that is getting harder and more expensive to find, extract, transport, refine and distribute. So the solution is neither higher minimum wages nor cheaper gasoline. The rest of the civilized world lives with higher gasoline prices, so at some point the whining about prices has to stop. Okay?

Its a dumb point to make to be quite blunt.

The only ones making minimum wage are the severely under-employable, un-educated, under-aged or illegal aliens. Although, like Bill Clinton, I can feel their pain, I cannot base an entire country's fiscal and monetary policy on the unemployable or the illegal. And if I could it certainly would not be the screwed-up monetary and fiscal policy that the USA is running today. That is for sure.

I think it is time to face the facts. The American way of life is simply unsustainable. I am sure glad I do not have to live there! But I wish it were otherwise because unfortunately I do not see a stable world without a stable USA either.

Now, I am off to Cairo tonight where the minimum wage is about $70 per month and a bottle of wine costs as much. And last I checked crude is $74 a barrel there as well? Cheers.
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Re: Under/Over on When 1 Gall.Gas>Min.Wage

Unread postby MrBill » Thu 05 Jul 2007, 10:49:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Gideon', 'M')r. Bill, doing his best to maintain pole position on my "uninformative and irritating to read" list.

There's no such thing as inflation.

"Inflation" is a term that is used to disguise the real issue, which is dollar devaluation.

Every day a dollar loses value.


Anyway, the reason that every Mr. Bill posts bothers me is because Mr. Bill is an economic peacock.

He comes in, shows all the feathers, and is proud.

But the truth is, he's the worst flier in the flock.


Thanks Gideon. That made me laugh! ; - ) Have a nice weekend.
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Re: Under/Over on When 1 Gall.Gas>Min.Wage

Unread postby dissimulo » Thu 05 Jul 2007, 13:16:35

If it ever happens while the dollar is still our currency, I think it will be a long time. Congress will make sure to keep raising the minimum wage to ensure something like the current ratio of hourly wage to gas price exists. To do otherwise risks being voted out at a time when it will be increasingly difficult to find soft, high-paying employment. California will probably lead the way, keeping their minimum wage high enough for all the yard maintenance workers to afford gas for their lawn mowers, trimmers, and edgers.

In the past, economic reality has not been reflected by economic policy. Why should this be any different in the future?
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Re: Under/Over on When 1 Gall.Gas>Min.Wage

Unread postby MrBill » Mon 09 Jul 2007, 04:33:20

Gideon wrote:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')here's no such thing as inflation.

"Inflation" is a term that is used to disguise the real issue, which is dollar devaluation.

Every day a dollar loses value.



This is not correct.

The US dollars recent devaluation against the euro cannot be explained by differences in inflation. The US dollar has also lost value against the GBP that has higher inflation. And what about when the US dollar appreciates against these currencies?

Also, the US dollar has appreciated against the JPY although inflation in the USA is nominally higher than in Japan. The yen has lost value against the euro and Sterling as well despite having lower domestic inflation. They are losing purchasing power, but not from inflation. But from a weaker currency as you surmise is the case with the US dollar.

The Canadian dollar is appreciating against these currencies despite inflation rates that are both higher and lower than theirs (GBP, JPY, USD). Within Canada, inflation in western Canada (Alberta & BC) are much higher than the national average or in central or Maritime Canada. And that is despite sharing a common currency.

Ditto for inflation levels across Europe that share a common currency.

So although US dollar devaluation against its trading partners due to the US' large current account deficits is a serious problem on its own, it does not explain away inflation, which is a separate albeit related issue.

UPDATE: on US dollar and global inflation outlook versus gold & oil prices
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')ut if inflation fears raise no eyebrows in the U.S., it's percolating elsewhere on the planet. That includes Britain, where the Bank of England just raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 5.75%, the highest in six years. It was the fifth straight increase in less than a year. And more rate hikes may be coming for England, David Brown, an economist at Bear Stearns, predicted via Reuters.

"The pace of expansion of the world economy remains robust," the BoE's statement advised. "The margin of spare capacity in businesses appears limited, and most indicators of pricing pressure remain elevated. The balance of risks to the outlook for inflation in the medium term continued to lie to the upside."

By contrast, The European Central Bank left rates unchanged, although hints of a rate hike accompanied the non action. Jean-Claude Trichet, the ECB's president, said in a prepared statement that inflation risks in the medium term are "on the upside." He explained that "as capacity utilization in the euro area economy is high and labor markets continue to improve, constraints are emerging which could lead in particular to stronger than expected wage developments."

Source: A 5-YEAR LOOKBACK
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Re: Under/Over on When 1 Gall.Gas>Min.Wage

Unread postby Pretorian » Mon 09 Jul 2007, 10:49:24

Well , to put it shortly I could retire with 30K in 2000, to do the same now I need $300 000.
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Re: Under/Over on When 1 Gall.Gas>Min.Wage

Unread postby MrBill » Mon 09 Jul 2007, 10:55:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pretorian', 'W')ell , to put it shortly I could retire with 30K in 2000, to do the same now I need $300 000.


Please back that up with some data. Thanks.

By definition if you had retired on $30.000 in 2000 you had a portfolio that adjusted for inflation or did you plan to die before now?

Even $30.000 in 2000 was generating less that $900 per year net in interest income @ 3% real yields, and $30.000 / 7 = $4.285 in capital per year with zero left now. Not much of a retirement?
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Re: Under/Over on When 1 Gall.Gas>Min.Wage

Unread postby evilgenius » Tue 10 Jul 2007, 13:45:44

I think two years if minimum wage stays where it is now. I think three or probably four if inflation presents the poll with a moving target.

Of course, all of this assumes that in two years anybody has a job!
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Re: Under/Over on When 1 Gall.Gas>Min.Wage

Unread postby MrBill » Wed 11 Jul 2007, 03:49:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('evilgenius', 'I') think two years if minimum wage stays where it is now. I think three or probably four if inflation presents the poll with a moving target.

Of course, all of this assumes that in two years anybody has a job!


Do you think they are all going to retire after 2009?
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Re: Under/Over on When 1 Gall.Gas>Min.Wage

Unread postby MrBill » Wed 11 Jul 2007, 08:12:16

Whatever Gideon. As usual you cannot provide me with a rebuttal, so you resort to insults. Never mind the clear examples I provided. As I said, whatever.
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Re: Under/Over on When 1 Gall.Gas>Min.Wage

Unread postby MrBill » Wed 11 Jul 2007, 10:10:12

What exactly am I supposed to predict?

What have I predicted wrongly?

What have you predicted correctly?

Not being an economist, but a banker, I do not get into a lot of econometric theory. I look at markets and try to figure out what is going on.

Most of my time on peak oil dot com is not actually predicting anything, but just cleaning up other people's sloppy thinking and incorrect assumptions about markets and economics.

If that is what bothers you, that I do not let you get away with saying just anything, then I am guilty as charged.

But I have a solution. If you stay away from Depletion Economics as a poster, you will never have to either read my posts nor have yours corrected by me. Fair enough?
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