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THE US Economy Thread (merged)

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: US may default on debt...

Postby Grimnir » Tue 14 Mar 2006, 17:16:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Falconoffury', 'R')aiding? You make them sound like pillagers with medieval weapons and animal skin clothing. I guess they might as well be.


Wish they were. It's a lot easier to recognize the enemy when he's got a sword at your throat.
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Re: US may default on debt...

Postby rogerhb » Tue 14 Mar 2006, 17:22:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Falconoffury', 'R')aiding? You make them sound like pillagers with medieval weapons and animal skin clothing. I guess they might as well be.


Have you not heard of "corporate raiders" and "asset strippers"?
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Re: US may default on debt...

Postby smiley » Tue 14 Mar 2006, 18:00:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he only reason US can borrow more and more money is because people are willing to lend to US.


And because the people allow the government to raid their piggybanks.

1997
Debt held by public 3,7 trillion USD
Intragovernmental holdings (read trust funds) 1,6 USD

2006
Debt held by public 4,8 trillion USD
Intragovernmental holdings 3,5 trillion USD

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Re: US may default on debt...

Postby Jack » Tue 14 Mar 2006, 21:26:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Falconoffury', 'W')on't it be even worse if the debt ceiling gets raised? When is the USA going to draw the line and boldy declare, "This far... no further."


The U.S. has a simple choice - inflate, or face economic ruin. The nation simply cannot pay the existing debt, much less the total obligations that include Social Security and Medicare. So we will debase the currency, resulting in a de facto default.

How often the various creditors will fall for the scheme remains a question. But as we discuss Peak Oil mitigation, I think we must consider the possibility that we will face multiple simultaneous challenges - including a non-oil economic collapse and catastrophic climate change.

It would be ironic if we discovered a solution to Peak Oil, but lacked the means to implement it.
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Re: US may default on debt...

Postby DantesPeak » Tue 14 Mar 2006, 21:44:11

US yearly budget deficits will likely be in the $1 trillion range about 2016 (if there is no inflation), mostly because of retirement, medicare and social security benefits coming due to the newly retired.

So the debt limit is a problem to politicians only because it heightens awareness of a very serious long term problem for the dollar. Just like PO will make oil less available in the future, the dollar will have less value in the future - but the powers that be don't really want us to prepare for either problem.
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Re: US may default on debt...

Postby Novus » Tue 14 Mar 2006, 21:46:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nth', '
')Anyways, I wish Congress do nothing and let the US go into default.
Let's see what will happen after that.
hahaha


I know what would happen. Government checks would start bouncing. If the government can't get more debt the checks simply bounce. Imagine the shock of all the seniors when there SS checks get returned by the banks. hahaha
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Re: US may default on debt...

Postby jaws » Tue 14 Mar 2006, 21:54:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jack', 'I')t would be ironic if we discovered a solution to Peak Oil, but lacked the means to implement it.

We already know the solution to Peak Oil: use less oil. The problem is always the means.
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Re: US may default on debt...

Postby Tyler_JC » Tue 14 Mar 2006, 21:58:07

You guys make it sound like the US Government is Ford Motor Company! Ha!

When the US Government needs more money, it asks the Department of Treasury for help. In turn, John Snow asks the Federal Reserve to create money in a mystery bank in the Carribean and buy US Treasury Bonds.

The government doesn't actually follow the laws it creates. Why should it? The debt ceiling is more of a temporary debt "guideline".

Granted at some point people will notice something isn't making sense.

The Feds could refinance at today's low rates and save themselves a lot in interest payments. But I doubt our creditors would go for that.
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Re: US may default on debt...

Postby dooberheim » Wed 15 Mar 2006, 10:56:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Eli', '[')url=http://www.breitbart.com/news/2006/03/14/060314155502.5zgxciv2.html]John Snow talking about the US Gov defaulting[/url]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')"Rather, they should vote to raise the ceiling this week. It would be unthinkable for them not to take action," he said, warning that the "full faith and credit" of the US government was too precious to be compromised.

Snow has issued increasingly urgent warnings to Congress that the statutory debt limit of 8.184 trillion dollars will be hit this week, and that the government will then lose its borrowing power.


So if the US gov does not pass the legislation necessary the US of A will be proven to be broke.

I was a Veterans Administration research employee through much of the '80s and '90s and saw the effects of not raising the debt ceiling. The Fed doesn't "default" in the usual sense of not paying interest or other obligation. It is simply forced to live within its tax revenues. This means a lot of "nonessential" employees are furloughed (but often Congress winds up paying them anyway after the debt ceiling is raised) and other expenditures are cut back. It is disruptive, and sometimes various agencies make it more disruptive than it needs to be.

For example, the USDA in the '80s furloughed all the meat inspectors for something like 9 days, causing slaughterhouses to have to shut down all over the nation. What they could have done is simply furloughed a few on a rotating basis to minimize the disruption, but the USDA wanted to make the point of how "essential" they were. Other agencies do this too.

It amazes me how Congress seems to go on acting as though deficits don't matter. The ceiling will be raised again - you can count on it...

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Re: US government near to debt limit

Postby nth » Wed 15 Mar 2006, 19:46:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('alecifel', 'w')hat good is a salary of $1000 a week, when bread costs $200?



Unless you are buying Chinese bread, which will be under $1 as they have a fixed 8:1 currency ratio and they will be able to produce as much bread as you need.


:P
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Re: US may default on debt...

Postby DantesPeak » Thu 16 Mar 2006, 13:49:58

Well, here is something you don't see everyday. The debt limit situation must be getting critical:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')reasury Postpones Auction Announcement

The announcement of 13-week and 26-week bills to be auctioned March 20, 2006 has been postponed pending action in Congress on legislation increasing the debt ceiling.


http://www.treas.gov/press/releases/js4120.htm
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Re: US may default on debt...

Postby DantesPeak » Thu 16 Mar 2006, 13:57:32

I guess cancelling Treasury auctions was the last straw. The Senate passed the limit by 52-48:


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')tatement of Secretary John W. Snow on Debt Limit

I commend Congress for protecting the full faith and credit of the United States with today's action on the debt limit. This legislation ensures that the U.S. can deliver on promises already made, such as Social Security and Medicare payments and aid for the victims of the 2005 hurricanes.


http://www.treas.gov/press/releases/js4123.htm
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Re: US may default on debt...

Postby Falconoffury » Thu 16 Mar 2006, 15:59:55

If any private individual, business, or other private entity begin paying off debts with more debts, and don't attempt to rapidly rectify the situation, then his finances will spiral out of control and he will have no choice but bankruptcy. Is it any different with the national government?
"If humans don't control their numbers, nature will." -Pimentel
"There is not enough trash to go around for everyone," said Banrel, one of the participants in the cattle massacre.
"Bush, Bush, listen well: Two shoes on your head," the protesters chant
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Re: US may default on debt...

Postby smallpoxgirl » Thu 16 Mar 2006, 16:37:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Falconoffury', 'I')f any private individual, business, or other private entity begin paying off debts with more debts, and don't attempt to rapidly rectify the situation, then his finances will spiral out of control and he will have no choice but bankruptcy. Is it any different with the national government?


Well...a couple of differences come immediately to mind.

A: There is no international bankruptcy court that a government can go to. Their only option is default.

B: There are pretty strict penalties for anyone that tries to get rid of his personal debts by just printing more money. For governments it is a lot more tempting.

Be interesting if a government did go into Chapter 7 though. Can you imagine the liquidation sale? "What am I bid for this brand new fully armed M1 Abrams? Who'll give me a million dollars?"
"We were standing on the edges
Of a thousand burning bridges
Sifting through the ashes every day
What we thought would never end
Now is nothing more than a memory
The way things were before
I lost my way" - OCMS
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Re: US may default on debt...

Postby Grimnir » Thu 16 Mar 2006, 16:47:33

The situation with governments isn't like citizen vs. bank or citizen vs. credit card company where one side holds all the cards. It's more like borrowing money from a friend or relative. If you decide not to pay they can't do a whole lot about it, but they'll probably never trust you again.
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Re: US may default on debt...

Postby Geko45 » Thu 16 Mar 2006, 17:56:33

For you folks keeping track at home, the new ceiling of $9 trillion will be reached in 372 days at the current rate of $2.1 billion per day.
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Re: US may default on debt...

Postby Falconoffury » Thu 16 Mar 2006, 18:07:48

I guess money itself is really a ponzi scheme, and the government really is a scammer. It really didn't have to come out like this. The government could have done much better with its finances over the past 30 years, but they probably know that the party is almost over, and they want to go out with a bang.
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Re: US may default on debt...

Postby Geko45 » Thu 16 Mar 2006, 20:03:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Falconoffury', 'I') guess money itself is really a ponzi scheme, and the government really is a scammer.

Life as we know it is a ponzi scheme. The entire 125 years of industrialized civilization has existed on the up-slope of the pyramid. Of course, most everyone here already knows this, but those that don't (and a few that do) are busily trying to recruit the next (and last) generation into the scheme in a desperate attempt to keep it afloat for a few more years. Some don't understand, some refuse to understand, all will lose.
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Re: US government near to debt limit

Postby sicophiliac » Thu 16 Mar 2006, 23:05:18

Well just today they raised the debt ceiling to around 9 trillion dollars! Now based on my limited understanding I can understand a large sum of debt really cant hurt us, otherwise it would have already done so long long ago but my main concern is the accumulation of foreign debt we have. I beleive more then half the money we borrow comes from foreign banks which gives nations like China for example more geopolitical leverage against us if they so choose to use it. No doubt before Bush gets through with his deficit expansion plan (tax cuts for the rich) well have more then doubled the debt we were in when he took office.
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Re: US may default on debt...

Postby oilluber » Fri 17 Mar 2006, 00:36:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Geko45', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Falconoffury', 'I') guess money itself is really a ponzi scheme, and the government really is a scammer.

Life as we know it is a ponzi scheme. The entire 125 years of industrialized civilization has existed on the up-slope of the pyramid. Of course, most everyone here already knows this, but those that don't (and a few that do) are busily trying to recruit the next (and last) generation into the scheme in a desperate attempt to keep it afloat for a few more years. Some don't understand, some refuse to understand, all will lose.


I could not care less if those holding US debt instruments get
creamed. They can't say they were not warned.
In fact, Japan, China, and holders of USD deserve to
be screwed by the US government.
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