by DantesPeak » Sun 04 Mar 2007, 00:43:51
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ElijahJones', 'I')'ll tell you what happens. The slow march of time, and depletion raises the core prices in the economy just at the time that your funny loans are about to be adjusted. So who wins? The folks who used 9/11 to offer you a loan you and they knew you could not afford. Long term noone is going to win because the housing crash of the next couple years will never be forgotten, books will be written about it.
Yes, I'm afraid the post 9/11 real estate bubble economy is soon coming to an end. Late Friday after the market close announcements were particularly ominous.
While it was not the top story on Wall Street this week, General Motors delaying its financial reports and revising five years of earnings should have been the number two story (with China deservedly getting number one attention as it is the number one financier of US government debt).
General Motors, 51% owner of GMAC, which is the owner of Residential Capital, which runs Ditech Mortgage, will sooner or later be recognizing billions upon billions of subprime mortage losses. Essentially the prior deal to sell the 49% interest in GMAC will be effcetively cancelled out by GM covering losses of Ditech under the terms of the GMAC sale.
It appears to me then that at this point General Motors is either functionally bankrupt, or will be functionally bankrupt by the end of 2007. It is possible for the US government or other large corporation to take over GM and conceal this fact, but it will still be bankrupt none the less if all its future liabilities are considered.
GM may be able to pull off some accounting magic by March 16 (when their revised reports are due) to make things look better than they are. I'm hoping they will – because otherwise the stock market may fall into a steep dive before I have a chance to liquidate my IRA investments. I have some energy related investments. Unfortunately even if oil keeps going up, oil stocks and other energy investments probably will still fall in any severe market downturn.
Edit: I found this article that better explains my comments:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'G')eneral Motors and the housing bust
How bad is it? According to the Houston Chronicle, "At the end of the third quarter, ResCap, long viewed as the crown jewel in GMAC's businesses, held $57 billion of subprime mortgages for investment, or 77 percent of its total loans held for investment. Its exposure to 'residual interest' in mortgage securities -- the high-yielding slices that suffer some of the first losses if loan defaults are higher than expected -- was $1.4 billion as of Sept. 30."
GM, the largest car maker in the world, is a pretty big institution, and GMAC is a pretty big financial player. But due to the opaque nature of the derivatives trading business, no one, not even, apparently, GM itself, is clear on exactly what ResCap's subprime woes might mean for the larger picture. But it can't be good.
Last fall, GM sold 51 percent of GMAC to Cerberus Capital Management, in a cash-raising effort aimed at bolstering the company's shaky finances. But the two parties have since been squabbling over the fine print. There now appear to be some questions as to whether GMAC was properly valued at the time of the deal.
All in all, not a good week for Wall Street. Monday morning should be interesting.