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THE Subprime Situation Thread (merged)

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Subprime lending collapse?

Postby I_Like_Plants » Sat 03 Mar 2007, 01:21:48

The thing that's bothered me all along about the real estate bubble is, in a normal market, it costs the same to buy or rent. A little more upfront to buy, but you get that back when you do your taxes.

Now, you have things like .... my present apartment is $1050, but buying the equivalent place turned into a condo would cost me at least $3000 a month.

This is why right now, it makes a lot more sense to rent than buy.
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Re: Subprime lending collapse?

Postby Tuike » Sat 03 Mar 2007, 17:18:27

http://www.mortgageimplode.com/

This link was in another thread, I'll spam it here too. There are 30 subprime lenders gone bankrupt in just two or three months.
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Re: Subprime lending collapse?

Postby DantesPeak » Sun 04 Mar 2007, 00:43:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ElijahJones', 'I')'ll tell you what happens. The slow march of time, and depletion raises the core prices in the economy just at the time that your funny loans are about to be adjusted. So who wins? The folks who used 9/11 to offer you a loan you and they knew you could not afford. Long term noone is going to win because the housing crash of the next couple years will never be forgotten, books will be written about it.


Yes, I'm afraid the post 9/11 real estate bubble economy is soon coming to an end. Late Friday after the market close announcements were particularly ominous.

While it was not the top story on Wall Street this week, General Motors delaying its financial reports and revising five years of earnings should have been the number two story (with China deservedly getting number one attention as it is the number one financier of US government debt).

General Motors, 51% owner of GMAC, which is the owner of Residential Capital, which runs Ditech Mortgage, will sooner or later be recognizing billions upon billions of subprime mortage losses. Essentially the prior deal to sell the 49% interest in GMAC will be effcetively cancelled out by GM covering losses of Ditech under the terms of the GMAC sale.

It appears to me then that at this point General Motors is either functionally bankrupt, or will be functionally bankrupt by the end of 2007. It is possible for the US government or other large corporation to take over GM and conceal this fact, but it will still be bankrupt none the less if all its future liabilities are considered.

GM may be able to pull off some accounting magic by March 16 (when their revised reports are due) to make things look better than they are. I'm hoping they will – because otherwise the stock market may fall into a steep dive before I have a chance to liquidate my IRA investments. I have some energy related investments. Unfortunately even if oil keeps going up, oil stocks and other energy investments probably will still fall in any severe market downturn.

Edit: I found this article that better explains my comments:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'G')eneral Motors and the housing bust

How bad is it? According to the Houston Chronicle, "At the end of the third quarter, ResCap, long viewed as the crown jewel in GMAC's businesses, held $57 billion of subprime mortgages for investment, or 77 percent of its total loans held for investment. Its exposure to 'residual interest' in mortgage securities -- the high-yielding slices that suffer some of the first losses if loan defaults are higher than expected -- was $1.4 billion as of Sept. 30."

GM, the largest car maker in the world, is a pretty big institution, and GMAC is a pretty big financial player. But due to the opaque nature of the derivatives trading business, no one, not even, apparently, GM itself, is clear on exactly what ResCap's subprime woes might mean for the larger picture. But it can't be good.

Last fall, GM sold 51 percent of GMAC to Cerberus Capital Management, in a cash-raising effort aimed at bolstering the company's shaky finances. But the two parties have since been squabbling over the fine print. There now appear to be some questions as to whether GMAC was properly valued at the time of the deal.

All in all, not a good week for Wall Street. Monday morning should be interesting.


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Re: Subprime lending collapse?

Postby master_rb » Sun 04 Mar 2007, 11:22:53

I_Like_Plants, you got good point that's why i'm not buying a house till things get back to normal

and if all the doomers are right probably will never have a chance to buy one :-D
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Re: Subprime lending collapse?

Postby Eli » Sun 04 Mar 2007, 15:17:25

Wow Dantes thanks for that cheery outlook.

57 billion in subprime loans. Damn! :?

Ok,Gm is even more screwed than before. GMAC was supposed to be the valuable piece of the company now it looks like it is the part that will drag the auto division down. And that is really saying something considering the how bad the auto division is.


The subprimes is where the growth in the housing has been coming from and it is going to take down all the big lenders.

The subprime market didn't come out of nowhere all the major banks created new companies to make the loans. As the subprime lenders go tits up it they will cut deep into all the major banks.

My dear Lord this is going to be ugly.

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Re: Subprime lending collapse?

Postby DantesPeak » Sun 04 Mar 2007, 15:49:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Eli', 'W')ow Dantes thanks for that cheery outlook.

57 billion in subprime loans. Damn! :?

Ok,Gm is even more screwed than before. GMAC was supposed to be the valuable piece of the company now it looks like it is the part that will drag the auto division down. And that is really saying something considering the how bad the auto division is.

My dear Lord this is going to be ugly.
[/url]


This is becoming a bit overwhelming.

The quick shut down of the sub-prime mortgage market is proceeding much faster than even a pessimist like myself expected.

Since the US economy, indeed the entire US dollar worldwide trade regime, is based upon ever expanding and secured debt within the US, the financial markets are quickly headed towards some type of crisis as a result of this debt problem. It will be a crisis never before seen.

The US economy was pulled out a steep pre & post 9/11 economic dive by the housing bubble. So what will the Fed do to restore the financial footing of the US this time?


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'F')rom The Sunday TimesMarch 04, 2007

US triggers $11bn HSBC fall-out
John Waples and Grant Ringshaw

EUROPE’s biggest bank, HSBC, is to write off $11 billion to cover mounting losses in its troubled American offshoot, HSBC Finance Corporation.

Stephen Green and Mike Geoghegan, the bank’s chairman and chief executive, are making the huge provisions — which will be announced alongside tomorrow’s full-year results — in an attempt to draw a line under the bank’s miserable experience since buying the business, then known as Household, for $14 billion (£7.2 billion) four years ago. The duo are under unprecedented pressure from shareholders over ballooning bad debts at its US mortgage business.

HSBC’s US business has faced escalating losses from thousands of low-income families who have been unable to repay loans. But the scale of its write-off, largely linked to the US business, will surprise many investors; they will want to know whether the worst is now over and whether the write-off, technically called an “impairment charge”, covers anticipated losses for this year as well.


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Re: Subprime lending collapse?

Postby fireplaceguy » Sun 04 Mar 2007, 16:38:26

Retiree pension and healthcare obligations would have eventually sunk the company anyway - we should look at the GMAC debacle as merciful - it shortens the suffering of the patient.

But not to worry - the talking heads on the Sunday shows said this is just a minor correction we're seeing...
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Re: Subprime lending collapse?

Postby I_Like_Plants » Sun 04 Mar 2007, 20:29:08

master-rb - you are smart. Remember, in a normal market, renting = buying, in reality, buying means you're making a promise to pay X amount for 20 or 30 years, you're giving up mobility.

This market is SO far out of whack it's amazing. It takes a lot of work to realize this though, the average 'Merkin is getting a constant barrage of "real estate ALWAYS goes up!" and all that BS, everyone around them is buying, etc. But, a few brave souls have worked the numbers and shown that a renter can save up money and rent all along, and at the end of 30 years have enough to buy the house outright plus an extra quarter-million to play with, if I remember correctly. But that's assuming things will stay constant, and of course they won't. We're in the equivalent of the 1920s right now, houses were still cheaper in the 1950s and there'd been a war and a depression in between.

Right now my inclination is to invest in SKILLS SKILLS SKILLS. Farming (food will never become cheaper and organic farming pays well) carpentry, medical/vet skills, music (people will really crave it when the lights go out) etc.
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Re: Subprime lending collapse?

Postby username » Sun 04 Mar 2007, 21:21:24

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Re: Subprime lending collapse?

Postby I_Like_Plants » Sun 04 Mar 2007, 21:24:04

Ahh, Bob The Angry Flower....... love that strip most of all!
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Re: Subprime lending collapse?

Postby seahorse2 » Mon 05 Mar 2007, 11:55:46

Subprime lending collapse continues to spread outwards.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'L')ehman Cuts Prime Mortgage Lenders on Spillover From Subprime

By Will Edwards

March 5 (Bloomberg) -- Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. reduced its investment rating on U.S. mortgage companies including Countrywide Financial Corp. because a surge in loan defaults is showing evidence of spreading beyond the riskiest credits and the Federal Reserve hasn't cut borrowing rates.


Bloomberg
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Re: Subprime lending collapse?

Postby seahorse2 » Mon 05 Mar 2007, 17:44:42

News of subprime lending collapse spreads and affects market.

Yahoo News
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Re: Subprime lending collapse?

Postby I_Like_Plants » Mon 05 Mar 2007, 18:07:27

This is interesting - a friend of mine has been essentially living off of his house refinances. Well, real estate has leveled off and even gone down a bit, and my friend is still refinancing because he has to - there's no way a respectable bank is doing this, it must be a subprime lender. But, if the subprimes crash, what I'll see is my friend losing his house and probably moving into an apartment.

It's a friend in the same biz I am, I used to buy a lot of good stuff from him, but I don't buy from him any more because he's not getting much new stuff, and also because he'll lie about stuff because he needs the $$.
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Re: Subprime lending collapse?

Postby TommyJefferson » Mon 05 Mar 2007, 19:14:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('I_Like_Plants', 'I')t's a friend in the same biz I am, I used to buy a lot of good stuff from him, but I don't buy from him any more because he's not getting much new stuff, and also because he'll lie about stuff because he needs the $$.


Your friend may indeed be a sub-prime borrower, but the illicit drug industry will boom after any economic collapse.

Keep your friend in case the market takes off!
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Re: Subprime lending collapse?

Postby I_Like_Plants » Tue 06 Mar 2007, 01:45:07

No no, not illicit drugs, there's not even any money in that, only stupid hillbillies and the ignorant portion of other groups get involved with that.....

Nope electronics junk. There will be *some* need for a while but it will peter wayyyyy out.......
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Re: Subprime lending collapse?

Postby seahorse2 » Tue 06 Mar 2007, 17:23:57

Bernanke urges Congress to bolster regulation of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mack to "guard against any danger their debt poses to the overall economy."

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')ASHINGTON (AP) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke urged Congress on Tuesday to bolster regulation of mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and suggested limiting their massive holdings to guard against any danger their debt poses to the overall economy.


However, he then followed with this contradictory statement:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')gainst this backdrop, Bernanke said he wanted to be clear that by suggesting the change in Fannie Mae's and Freddie Mac's portfolio holdings, he was not advocating a change in the exposure of the mortgage giants' subprime loans.


Yahoo News

How in God's name can he say he fears the danger these large holdings could pose to the overall economy but then say keep making subprime loans?

Check out this earlier statement by then Fed Chairman Greenspan who also warned of the risk that Fannie Mae and Freddi Mac posed to the US economy:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'F')ederal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan yesterday took on the powerful housing industry, warning that the $2 trillion and growing debts being amassed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac pose a threat to the economy and taxpayers.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')"Preventive actions are required sooner, rather than later," he said, echoing warnings from the General Accounting Office and Congressional Budget Office.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')r. Greenspan advocated strict regulation of the enterprises comparable to the strictures imposed on their competitors, big banks like Citicorp and Bank of America. Among other things, the banks are required to set aside substantial reserves to cover losses from loan delinquencies.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he Fed chairman's testimony provoked an outraged response from housing advocates, who portray the substantial advantages enjoyed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac as critical to nurturing the housing boom that buoyed the economy during the recession.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '"')I have learned a lesson a long time ago about not biting the hand that feeds you, and I would think Mr. Greenspan and the Fed would have learned the same message," said Jerry Howard, chief executive of the National Association of Home Builders.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')r. Greenspan stressed that the corporations are well-run and are not in any immediate financial danger in part because they employ hedging strategies aimed at minimizing the biggest risk they face: a sudden rise in interest rates that could devastate the value of their portfolios. But he said it would be impossible for them to fully insure against such risks.

Washington Times

So, it looks as if Greenspan's warnings should have been heeded, but they weren't, and now, Bernanke's warnings, even if heeded, will be too late to save the literal trillions that are poised for a default. So, after reading Greenspan's warning above, do you think the subprime loan issue will adversely spread to the whole economy?
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Re: Subprime lending collapse?

Postby PenultimateManStanding » Tue 06 Mar 2007, 18:49:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seahorse2', ' ')
So, after reading Greenspan's warning above, do you think the subprime loan issue will adversely spread to the whole economy?
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Re: Subprime lending collapse?

Postby Eli » Tue 06 Mar 2007, 18:56:32

This is complete bull, there was a big turn around today in the market as far as the subprime lenders go.

Bloomberg

My bet is this is PPT at work. The Fed already has too close a relationship with the private banks. To head off a collapse they lend funny money to the major banks propping up there own shill crap loan companies.
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Re: Subprime lending collapse?

Postby cynicalheretic » Tue 06 Mar 2007, 20:28:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Eli', 'T')his is complete bull, there was a big turn around today in the market as far as the subprime lenders go.


This is why

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')ernanke said that unlike fully private firms, the two GSEs face little or no market discipline from their debtholders because of a belief the U.S. government "will back these institutions under almost any circumstances."

Although the debt of the two companies is not explicitly guaranteed by the federal government, many investors believe that because of the companies' public mission, the United States would not allow either company to fail.


It would make since that the government would attempt to bail these companies out in order to keep the rest of the economy going. Of course that means "we" will be bailing them out. But, hey what another 1 trillion dollars to the 8 we already have to pay.

http://money.cnn.com/2007/03/06/news/ec ... tm?cnn=yes
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Re: Subprime lending collapse?

Postby seahorse » Tue 06 Mar 2007, 21:40:19

At one time, I said the difference between a "soft landing" and a "hard landing" was this: a soft landing only affecting the homeowner and builders. A "hard landing" was one that affected the banks. Seems like a hard landing, which was the concern voiced by both Greenspan in 2005 and Bernanke just this month, may be more likely than not. See this article: "Subprime virus on Wallstreet." by Forbes.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'E')leven big banks along with an activist hedge fund manager could be left holding an empty bag after New Century Financial disclosed a criminal probe into the trading of its securities in the days before an earnings restatement last month.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')anks with substantial stakes in New Century include: Morgan Stanley (nyse: MS - news - people ), with 5.45% reported as of Dec. 31, 2006; Goldman Sachs (nyse: GS - news - people ), with 4.76%; State Street, with 3.8%; and Citigroup (nyse: C - news - people ), with 3.5%. The New York State Teachers Retirement System held a 3.6% stake as of the end of last year.

The New Century case is of particular concern because of fears that trouble in the subprime business could spread into prime mortgages, causing pain for many more lenders.


Forbes,com

Many have argued Greenspan created the housing bubble by lowering rates, however, his warnings should nevertheless be heeded. He did warn about the bubble in tech stocks, maybe a little early, but he still saw it coming; so his 2005 warning about the risk to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac should probably be heeded as well.


If the subprime virus wasn't enough, check this out: Goldman Sachs warns of "dead bodies" due to yen carry trade fallout.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')tephen King, chief economist for HSBC, said it would take two or three weeks to gauge the severity of this shake-out. "The world economy is fundamentally strong, but this reversal of one-way bets built up over years creates great uncertainty. The key worry is that this could reveal a weakness in the architecture of financial markets. We just don't know who is trying to liquidate positions," he said.

Bernard Connolly, chief strategist for Banque AIG, said conditions now are more threatening than they were in the six-week sell-off last spring.

"The carry trade was bound to end with a bang rather than a whimper but this doesn't look to me like forced liquidation yet. However, the yen is going up against all currencies this time and not just the dollar, and stocks are looking more panicky.

"This is going to go on for longer because there has unquestionably been a global financial bubble. Eventually, central banks will reflate but it will have to get worse first. "



Telegraph UK
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