[PeakingAroundtheCorner]

Hey pup55, I did the exact same search the other day. Was going to post about it but never got around to it.

We humans are certainly outgrowing our britches. Fuel does indeed equal food and the less we have the more chaos will ensue.

Good post.

[seahorse2]

Pup wrote:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A') lot of people are going to die.

[pup55]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'u')ncharacteristically doomerish coming from you.

[Jack]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seahorse2', '
') ME problems, terrorism (Bin Laden speaks of oil often), poverty, political corruption etc, affects cost of materials thus increasing home costs, infrastructure cost for oil drilling etc., so, its sets off a vicious cascade of effects that could easily get beyond our ability, collectively, to deal with.

[Fishman]

Pup
Best analysis I've seen in a long time. Add a little tribalism, artificial borders created not by the inhabitants, oh, and arm sales, wow, what a mix!

[Twilight]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pup55', 'T')here will be havoc, more refugees, and pretty soon, you will have to leave in the middle of the night and go to your villa in Corsica or wherever, and let the chips fall where they may.

The next guy will do exactly the same thing. I don't see an end game.

[seahorse2]

Pup wrote:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Y')ou know that if there is a fertilizer shortage, the next crop will be worse than this one.

[pup55]

I have to start reading The Onion more often.

Also, I have to think about some participation in this grain thing, except prices are so high now, it is hard to go into the market at a 30 year high. The thing about the grains is, if they have a good harvest down in Argentina it could really screw up the market.

Anyhow, all of this paints a pretty grim picture for some of these places. We have no idea how good we have it.

[seahorse2]

Pup,

Wheat prices are at a 30 year high, but so are oil and gold prices. The question is why? I believe all these commodities are at high prices due to plateau oil and NG. If we on these boards are right, and the world is at a plateau in oil production (arguably a decline or close to a decline), and if NG, at least in NA is also peaked and ready for a decline, then I don't see how the price of wheat and corn can come down much - especially in the breadbasket of wheat and corn production, the USA. Oil and NG prices should remain high, if not go higher. Further, they are both so instrumental in grain prices, that they should keep grain prices high, with or without ethanol. Its a gamble. I don't gamble much, but I'm willing to gamble a little on this.

[cube]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pup55', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'u')ncharacteristically doomerish coming from you.

[pup55]

I used to follow the grains some, but I do not track it regularly, so everything I say is a guess.

Kansas Wheat History

Page 3 of this report has a nice graph on it to the effect that there was a multi-decade period of reduced acreage of wheat in Kansas at least. I guess the stocks got low, and then the ethanol boom hit, and we were off and running.

I also think there were some crop quality issues in China.

Guardian Article

It will be interesting to see what happens. They are planting 14 million acres this year, which will be pretty close to the 1983 record.

The grain market is a lot like the oil market, there are plenty of talking heads trying to figure out what is happening.

[strider3700]

After you do your research on grain take a look at sugar.

Back on topic great writeup

[threadbear]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seahorse2', 'W')ell Pup, anytime I've argued this very point I get shouted down with cries that the problems in the third world have little to do with depletion and everything to do with political mismanagement. My response, I don't see the US being any better politically managed than any other country, so, that factor should be equal. This seems to be a have versus have not issue, meaning, those countries that have money can still buy the expensive oil and those that don't cannot.

Further, PO, plateau oil, whatever we want to call it, exacerbates every other problem we have in society, i.e. - ME problems, terrorism (Bin Laden speaks of oil often), poverty, political corruption etc, affects cost of materials thus increasing home costs, infrastructure cost for oil drilling etc., so, its sets off a vicious cascade of effects that could easily get beyond our ability, collectively, to deal with.

[seahorse]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')but stay up reflecting demand for oil and food.

[threadbear]

Most people think prices will drop to meet demand, or what people can afford. They have a vague idea that if things get rough and people don't have much money, prices will drop to meet affordability. That's not going to happen. That kind of demand, without strong purchasing power, is more aptly called, desire. The real demand will be in the upper tier of people who have managed to salvage purchasing power, one way or another. In other words it's going to look a lot like a third world nation.

[basil_hayden]

The uneven distribution won't be noticed until a neighbor, such as Mexico, bites the dust. Then TSHTF effectively for us. The psychology of it can probably best be described as the first time you see a house on your road with a foreclosure sign on it, and realize you're basically a hop, skip and jump away from that yourself.

Africa is still "way over there" along with "nothing ever changes" as described in your Tanzania post.

And Yes TB, all this time with petroleum we've built things more cheaply as time progressed but charged as much as we could possibly get for them instead of just the actual cost. Pretty soon the actual cost will skyrocket to the point of shortages, because if it's not there it can't be bought at any price, whatever "it" is, as it all stems from petroleum.

Price will not ration petroleum enough to make this a long emergency.

[cube]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', 'M')ost people think prices will drop to meet demand, or what people can afford. They have a vague idea that if things get rough and people don't have much money, prices will drop to meet affordability. That's not going to happen.

[threadbear]

Further to that, Cube, and I've been having this argument with the pure deflationist camp for 7 years. The next logical step for Starbucks is to buy out other strapped specialty coffee places, for cents on the dollar, in a kind of vulture move, monopolize, obliterate any meaningful competition and raise prices even higher than they have to. Why bother being concerned with market share, in the traditional sense, just focus on your target market and gouge. The customers won't care, and competition will never be able to get back in. Who is going to lend them money to start up competing operations?

[GreyGhost]

Definition: In this thread, "TSHTF" is defined as any one or more of these events occurring:
* stock market crash as bad as the great depression
* aggressive use of any large-scale WMD (nuclear, chemical, bio, EMP etc)
* pandemic with monthly death rates as high as the Spanish flu
* oil barrel price tripling within the space of six months

(If you didn't know, all of the above events actually have happened in the past)

[Lighthouse]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GreyGhost', '.').. (If you didn't know, all of the above events actually have happened in the past)