[Eli]

I will tell you what,

I think we all need to quit speculating and making predictions. What I think is happening is powerful people around the world read this site and they are stealing our ideas.

So no more nuke talk.

[peripato]

This is perhaps another clue that we are indeed on the petroleum production plateau now. David Fleming described this phenomenon back in 2001 in a paper submitted to the UK Energy Review entitled, The Great Oil Denial. An excerpt reads;

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he economics of oil is now dominated by its close proximity to the peak, and the graph (figure 1) shows the peak that could be expected in 2005. In fact, the global peak will not take the usual form of a simple turning-point; instead, as production begins to slow down, price increases will begin to speed up, suppressing demand and slowing the rate of growth in production even more. The market will go into "contango". Buyers will want to buy more oil today - i.e. for delivery straight away, since it will be cheaper than oil in the future, while sellers will have an incentive to hold back the supply of oil today, since the oil that is still in the ground is appreciating in value. This increase in demand for today's oil, combined with limited supply, will tend to raise its price while the expectation that oil in the future will be still more expensive will tend to increase the price of future oil too, though not quite so fast. Eventually, the price of today's oil will catch up with that of future oil, returning the market to order and equilibrium, but at a much higher price. Oil production will flatten off towards a plateau for a period, followed by a relatively abrupt downturn onto the path towards exhaustion.

[benzoil]

It might be as simple as providing jobs for the exploding Saudi population. Why not tap some of the downstream revenue rather than just export the raw material? Even in a PO situation, there's a value add for them to produce plastic and refined products.

[nero]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', 'I')f I was a dictator of an oil rich nation I'd do the same thing too!

[TommyJefferson]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', 'W')e all knew the oil exporters would eventually wise up and reduce their output to us oil-swilling fools, saving it for their own use, and for a future when they'll be able to get astronomical prices for it.

[SD_Scott]

It's never good for a country to solely rely on the export of raw materials. It's much better to add value to the product. This creates jobs and creates money circulation. Saudi Arabia and OPEC in general don't have to sell us a thing if they don't want to. They should reduce output to a level that is sustainable and produce the finished products there.

The US has pursued a foreign policy that results in countries exporting their raw materials leaving them with an economy that has little diversity. Then comes the IMF and so on and so on. I believe the world has started to catch on to this scam.

[strider3700]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SD_Scott', ' ')Saudi Arabia and OPEC in general don't have to sell us a thing if they don't want to.

[yesplease]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', 'T')his alone brings Peak Oil upon us, obviously. It makes no difference whether the peak is brought on by geological factors, or by decisions made by the producers. The top of the curve is the top of the curve, no matter what factors put us there.

[highlander]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', ' ')Peak whatever is not about resource depletion per say, it's about economics.

[sameu]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Eli', 'S')o no more nuke talk.

[DantesPeak]

They didn't mention Russia, but it appears that Russia is shifting away from its long standing policy of producing as much oil as possible:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'F')aced with limited interest to send crude outside of Russia because of the country's scathingly high export taxes, Moscow has mapped out a sharp cut of 195,000 barrels per day in Russian oil exports during the third quarter of the year, a period when the country's exports usually peak because of summer's favorable shipping conditions. The cutback is largely visited on outlets of the Druzhba pipeline.

[Dvanharn]

Raymond Learsy, bio here from Huffington Post,$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'R')aymond J. Learsy is the author of the updated version Over a Barrel: Breaking Oil’s Grip on Our Future. A graduate of the Wharton School, he made his life in the fast-paced, risk-filled world of commodities trading, beginning in 1959. In 1963, he started his own firm and over twenty years expanded from the U.S. into Canada, the United Kingdom, Luxembourg, Brazil, and Pakistan, trading in an array of bulk raw materials and commodities, shipping to customers worldwide. In the 1980s, he became a private investor, and from 1982 to 1988, served as a Reagan appointee to the National Endowment for the Arts. Currently, he is a member of the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. Learsy's analysis of the international oil trade, OPEC, and its impact on the American and world economy has been featured in the National Review Online, the New York Times, the Pipeline and Gas Journal, the Huffington Post and on CNBC"

[Fishman]

Check the source, Huffington Post is a loony far left post. Wouldn't worry about them much, as they lean to the far left they tend to whine much and do little. Peak oil will hit the left far worse, can't maintain all those folks under a nanny state unless plenty of money is rolling in the system, might actually have to take care of yourself and family, and OH MY GOD, be responsible for your own actions.
Or, maybe Huffington Post is correct.

[BicycleCommuter]

I guess I respectfully disagree that the left (in general terms) will be harmed more by peak oil then the right (in general terms) on the individual and household level.

Most left-leaning people I know are much more likely than right leaning folks to bicycle to work, own less cars, take transit, live closer to work, live in reasonably-sized homes, buy locally grown food, care about their energy use, practice conservation, and be willing to change their behavior in general.

Not many of my left leaning friends are driving massive SUVs 100 miles back and forth to their office job from their McMansion in the far suburbs. Those kind of people are the ones that are going to suffer.

[Twilight]

KSA is open to the gouging charge until they remove the 1990 revision from their stated reserves and adjust for discoveries and production.

Table.

The same goes for the rest. They either have that oil or they don't. We already know Kuwait doesn't. An angry and frightened world is not going to let them have it both ways much longer.

[Eli]

Yeah I am certain that I have read other stuff from this guy before.

Basically he is totally full of shit.

[v]

I completely agree: WTF - are these people insane???

Just because the USA is very powerful, doesn't mean it owns the world. Saudi Arabia as a sovereign nation can do anything it wants with the oil resources it owns.

Americans have had since the 1970s to realize that they might have some problems being completely dependent on imported oil. If the richest nation on earth hasn't come up with policies, technologies, and motivation to reduce oil usage yet, after more than 30 years , then that is entirely the USA's problem and they have no right to complain to any other country . Even today I don't see any real changes significant enough to make a real difference in fossil-fuel consumption.

[Bas]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('v', 'I') completely agree: WTF - are these people insane???

Just because the USA is very powerful, doesn't mean it owns the world. Saudi Arabia as a sovereign nation can do anything it wants with the oil resources it owns.

Americans have had since the 1970s to realize that they might have some problems being completely dependent on imported oil. If the richest nation on earth hasn't come up with policies, technologies, and motivation to reduce oil usage yet, after more than 30 years , then that is entirely the USA's problem and they have no right to complain to any other country . Even today I don't see any real changes significant enough to make a real difference in fossil-fuel consumption.

[Dvanharn]

Huffington post is indeed a left-wind blog site, which, unlike right-wing sites, allows some conservatives to post blog entries there as well. However, Raymond Learsy is a seriously conservative "free markets can solve all problems" businessman and commodity trader. The subject post is his personal, conservative opinion, and not a view of Arianna Huffington or any consortium of liberals.

I found it rather amusing that you attack a conservative's post supporting a conservative position as liberal simply because it is found on a liberal blog site. (I actually found it as a link from peakoil.com.) You did what Heinberg criticized in his review of Learsy's 2005 book - you neither acknowledged nor even indicated in any way that you actually read Learsy's words, but rather set up and attacked something else without refuting anything Learsy said when you saw where the blog was posted - a classic strawman tactic.

I prefer to get my oil and energy facts from non-political sites such as with news and article links such as peakoil.com, The Oil Drum, ASPO sites, and EnergyBulletin.net.

Come on, Fishman, cool your flippers (fins??) and get past your prejudices. Read content and rebut it if you disagree - rather than attack peripheral attributes of articles and posts.

Dave