by Vexed » Wed 24 May 2006, 22:43:27
ClassicSpiderman Wrote:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') told a bunch of people back in 1999 that the entire dot com boom would come to a crash and people would lose the shirts off their backs. I was laughed out of the room and told that the market for internet and information services would keep growing indefinitely.
Hi Spidey,
Didn't it just make you want to crawl up the wall!!!!!!
I predict we will see a fizzle in boomer property just as we did with the dot-coms. A bubble is a bubble.
I wrote a lengthy post on the subject some time back in a 18 page monster thread called Waiting for Peakoil.
In March 2005 I wrote:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')n the early part of the year 2001, I had a very interesting conversation with two microsoft workers I met through a mutual friend. They were young, enthusiastic, and unbelievably excited about their prospects. The world was their oyster. They were making tons of money on their stock options. They had multiple offers from dot-coms for $80,000 a year jobs. They saw the future the same way that the mainstream media was portraying it: The stock market would hit 15,000. The "new" economy would continue to fluorish. And a couple hard years working and they could retire on yachts to some Carribean island. Ah, those days seem so far away now.
Even though I had made a pretty decent mark for myself during the dot-com era, I was not so optimistic about the future. As a matter of fact, I spent two hours trying to convince these two kids ( I call them kids but they were really the same age as myself) that America was not in the wondrous position that they imagined. At the time, I even came close to predicting the 9/11 attack, which my friend who was privy to the conversation hasn't let me live down since. I had made the prediction based on what I had seen in my recent travels - in my comparisions with the underdeveloped world and our society. America just looked too much like the fat kid stealing lunchmoney from its undernourished peers. I felt there would be repercussions/consequences - and here in front of me were two Microsoft kids who had never left the country, who had no knowledge of current events, who had no political/historical reference points to base there thoughts on, and who seemed to embody American notion's of entitlement - and they thought I was insane.
That conversation lit a fire under me. I realized folks so desperately want things to turn out the way they want them that they will ignore reality. I had understood the idea for some time, but never had the concept hit me like it did now. It was an epiphony of sorts. I realized how much more control I had in of my life than they did. I realized they wanted to be manipulated - especially if that manipulation coincided with their illusions and hopes. I realized I could have manipulated these kids if I just figured out the appropriate illusions to enhance for them. People want to be comfortable (with or without kids in the mix). I don't understand that, never have. Comfort breeds complacency. There are alot of uncomfortable folks on Peakoil.com. I appreciate that.
Fast forward 5 years. The two workers are no longer in the tech industry. Many of the folks I knew in the industry who had expense accounts you wouldn't believe (I spent one incredibly pleasurable weekend in Tampa entirely funded by an Amazon reps. expense account) are now working at Wendy's or Home Depot. The signs that portended the fall finally couldn't be ignored, and the free ride finally ended.
What did I do in those five years? Well, before the bust, it was difficult to watch so much money being made without me (I kept questioning my reasoning), but I managed to hold firmly to my convictions. I just couldn't see investing when so many of the fundamentals (like, oh say, profitability) were no longer a part of the equation. I removed myself completely from the markets, and instead parked my cash in a low-yield money market fund. I then invested in commercial real estate while everyone else was buying Yahoo and AskJeeves. At the time, no one understood what I was doing. I was consistently asked why I thought I knew more than everyone else. My thoughts on the "new" economy were scoffed at. I stopped talking. No one wanted to listen. Just like Monte, I started to go slightly "nuts." It seemed like everyone just wanted to be told that everything was OK and that their stock investments would eternally return 20%.
That's where I feel the concept of Peak Oil is today. Its so damn obvious its frustrating. To some of us. But for the vast majority of Americans who place their faith in personal illusions based on what they believe they are entitled to, nothing is obvious, nothing is clear, except what they want.
With the collapse of the dot-com sector, it seemed like overnight I went from being a wingnut to a prophet. The same people who laughed at me were now asking for advice. And its ironic because my whole point was "You have to think for yourselves. Don't follow the herd." And, all of sudden, after arguing my case for years against the herd, I am proven right, and what happens? I attract a herd of my very own.
I guess my point is that in 5-10 years everything can change. And as we know, it probably will. Monte, for what its worth, my advice is: Don't rush it. Your day of vindication will most certainly come. And then, amid all the chaos, you can play the part of prophet if that's really what you want. Till then, be a good wingnut and continue to try and teach the illusioned masses. They won't respect you till you are proven right. And you won't be proven right until its too late for most.
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Debt is Wealth.
Consumption is Growth.
Ignorance is Bliss.
If I had a dollar for every prediction of the arriving apocalypse, I would own a lot of gold.