by smallpoxgirl » Wed 15 Oct 2008, 15:56:27
I guess I'd say it's not a great idea. Here's why. The big driver behind silver prices right now is the dollar index. There's a peculiar thing happening with the dollar index right now. Usually if the US stock markets go down, that should drive the US dollar down too. Right now what's happening is that every time the US stock market goes down, the dollar goes up. I think the reason that's happening is that all the markets are doing the same thing. When our markets fall, you can bet the Nikkei is going to drop, etc. The more global financial fear that's out there, the more people turn to the dollar as a bastion of safety. Paradoxically every time the fear goes up, the dollar goes up, and metals, especially silver, go down.
Over the long term I don't expect the dollar to continue strengthening. More vibrant emerging economies will pull them selves together, wrestle free from us, and do their own thing. When that happens, the dollar will tank, and PM's will go through the roof. For now I'm kinda thinking that PM's may actually continue to fall for a while. I wouldn't be surprised if silver got down into the $8 range. I don't usually buy anything on a credit card that I'm not expecting to pay off in 1-2 months. I think the break even period on silver is longer than that. Especially if you're buying 100oz or smaller bars. Anything less than 1000oz bars, you're paying a big retail premium right now.
"We were standing on the edges
Of a thousand burning bridges
Sifting through the ashes every day
What we thought would never end
Now is nothing more than a memory
The way things were before
I lost my way" - OCMS