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THE Middle Class Thread (merged)

What's on your mind?
General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

Re: Middle Class Families in Worse Shape Than Ever, Study Fi

Unread postby ClubOfRomeII » Wed 18 Oct 2006, 23:54:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kenohio', '
')It might not be obvious yet, but I think for a lot of us we will soon find that we can no longer keep up with our delusion that we are middle class.


For some of us there is no delusion. We prepared, paid attention a long time ago, followed a path and then surprise! The impossible lifestyle follows.
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Re: Middle Class Families in Worse Shape Than Ever, Study Fi

Unread postby thuja » Thu 19 Oct 2006, 01:01:29

Great- your old CORII- you have seniority and you got into the pyramid scheme first. Now your children and the firneds of your children are screwed. It costs 50,000 dollars just for a 20% downpayment on a modest house. What working class joe can build up that kind of bankroll. They can't. But they get suckered into the ARMs, the exotic mortgages, the no money down. And then when the wizard draws back the curtains and the scheme is revealed, they lose all...foreclosure, bankruptcy. Its their fault right...no spare me the reponse I'll write it myself... here goes.



They don't have to buy a house. They can rent and scrimp and save like I did in my days. I worked two jobs and made enough money to buy a small house. And then I got better jobs and made a mint when I sold my house after my neighborhood gentrified. I also made a mint because I happened to live through the stock market expansion of the 90's so I'm set for retirment. Poor people could do the same if they just used a little old thing called elbow grease and good old fashioned American ambition!!
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Re: Middle Class Families in Worse Shape Than Ever, Study Fi

Unread postby WildRose » Thu 19 Oct 2006, 03:17:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('drew', '.') We do eat a pile of meat though; I bet it is 20 or 30 bucks a week easily. We buy cheaper cuts mostly because we have a slow cooker which works miracles. Steak is an occasional treat since it would be 30 bucks for just one meal.



Hi, Drew.

We also buy the cheaper cuts most frequently. Another thing I do to stretch the meat portion of my food budget is buy small amounts of chicken breasts, lean ground beef, lean sausages, etc. and use them in stir-frys and casseroles, or use them along with fresh veggies, grated cheese and lettuce in wraps or tacos.

One thing I find really frustrating of late is that when I'm grocery shopping, the non-food items (paper, hygiene, cleaning products) take up such a large portion of our grocery budget. I'd rather spend the money on food, but we need these things also. It just really irks me that I've spent $60 of the grocery money before I even get to the stuff we eat.
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Re: Middle Class Families in Worse Shape Than Ever, Study Fi

Unread postby WildRose » Thu 19 Oct 2006, 03:38:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kenohio', '
')That has led many people that were accustomed to having a middle class income and lifestyle to slip out of the middle class, even if they don't really realize the fact. It happens slowly as their wages stay the same but the prices of everything around them move up. Gradually their paychecks just don't go as far as they used to go, and if they want to continue living at the same level they were accustomed to they must either earn more money or borrow to fill in the gaps between earnings and expenditures.



Kenohio, I think this is the situation many middle class families are in right now, in a nutshell. As you stated, the paychecks stay the same or rise very marginally, and the cost of goods and services rises at a greater rate. The average person may not really think about it much when the home insurance raises by $70 this year over last, and the property taxes go up by 9%. Registering your vehicle, paying your pet licence, utility bill's a bit higher. One at a time, it doesn't look like a big deal. But when you sit down and calculate where your income has gone, you see the grand total of these increases compared to the marginal increase in your income (if you received one). Then comes the job of trying to trim the "fat" out of one's expenses. I think there comes a point when, for most people, there just isn't any more fat, and that's when a lot of the items that are real necessities are purchased on credit.

Well, I think gradually this is going to have an impact on the economy. When increases in property taxes and food and utilities eat up pretty much every bit of disposable income, people may allow their debt load to continue to grow, but I think it's more likely that more and more they will just do without all but the most necessary of items. Then all the big box stores and specialty stores alike will take a big hit.
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Re: Middle Class Families in Worse Shape Than Ever, Study Fi

Unread postby WildRose » Thu 19 Oct 2006, 04:04:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thuja', ' ') It costs 50,000 dollars just for a 20% downpayment on a modest house. What working class joe can build up that kind of bankroll. They can't. But they get suckered into the ARMs, the exotic mortgages, the no money down. And then when the wizard draws back the curtains and the scheme is revealed, they lose all...foreclosure, bankruptcy.



Exactly, Thuja. The average person is just trying to get into a house. Sure, there are those who want a large home filled with the best of everything right from the start, but many just want to get into a home. What have most of us been told for many years, even by our parents, who would not want to steer us the wrong way? "Buy a home, paying rent every month is just throwing money away." Now, in many places, just trying to get into a house is a monumental task, and yes, many have been suckered into impossible mortgages. I think also that there has been a real snowball effect with this - someone hears from a coworker that he was able to get into a home with a creative mortgage plan, and that person investigates and finds out that there's a lender who will be happy to do the same for him. Before you know it, it's more like the norm, and even people who just want a small home to start a family in are over their heads in debt.

I agree with not biting off more than one can chew, but I can see how easily the dilemma can develop for young people today. How can you save money for a downpayment when you have to pay back student loans and somehow afford the rising costs of living, which will affect you even as you live in a small apartment and try to save money? It seems that the only way a young couple can start out without huge debt is if they have a big hand up from their parents, and I know that's impossible in most cases.

Eventually, all of this will erode the middle class, the upper middle class, hell, maybe even some of the wealthier when the real estate market, lending institutions and the construction industry find themselves affected by the average joe's and jane's lack of ability to get into a home and the erosion of their disposable income.
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Re: Middle Class Families in Worse Shape Than Ever, Study Fi

Unread postby kenohio » Thu 19 Oct 2006, 19:07:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('WildRose', '
')
I agree with not biting off more than one can chew, but I can see how easily the dilemma can develop for young people today. How can you save money for a downpayment when you have to pay back student loans and somehow afford the rising costs of living, which will affect you even as you live in a small apartment and try to save money? It seems that the only way a young couple can start out without huge debt is if they have a big hand up from their parents, and I know that's impossible in most cases.



I think that is the whole issue we all have to come to grips with in the emerging American economic reality. In the past it was pretty much guaranteed, that if you obtained a college degree you would end up earning enough to give you a spot in the Middle Class. Heck even if you didn't get a college degree, but were fortunate enough to get on at the mill, factory or government job you were going to be middle class.

Now that isn't the case, but the expectations that everything is the same are still the common mindset. The adjustment to reality will be very dramatic and unfortunate indeed.

The reshuffling and rebalancing of expectations and realities will be a huge blow to the American Psyche. Will it be enough to get us to regain our place in the world's pecking order? Who knows, but believe me there are a lot of other countries out there that would love to have a shot at anything closely resembling the standard of living we have enjoyed here over the last 100 years. And now that they have had a taste of the Middle Class lifestyle, I think we will have to fight even harder to hold our place in the Middle Class not only against our neighbors in the US, but against billions of people world-wide.

Quite a daunting feat, that has yet to sink in.
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Re: Middle Class Families in Worse Shape Than Ever, Study Fi

Unread postby ClubOfRomeII » Thu 19 Oct 2006, 19:39:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thuja', 'G')reat- your old CORII- you have seniority and you got into the pyramid scheme first.


I am 41, and never in my life have I bought into a pyramid scheme. Or gotten a mortgage for a house I might add.

What I have done, spanning a couple of decades now, is pick a career which matters, put my head down, acquired some valuable skills in a cumulative fashion, and filled a very small, very valuable niche in it.

I didn't whine much along the way when I took pay CUTS to acquire more experience in a different area, I've never thought of anything as "impossible", just some things are tougher to acquire than others, and paid attention to the way the world generally works and used these observations to my advantage.

Didn't strike me as difficult along the way, but I've got some natural advantages over an "average" American I suppose.

Presto....
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Re: Middle Class Families in Worse Shape Than Ever, Study Fi

Unread postby drew » Thu 19 Oct 2006, 20:59:25

Bully for you, Club of Rome. You are lucky you had some forsight. The point is though, overall, the middle class is harder to maintain. Not everyone can be chiefs, there has to be braves too. (sorry everyone for the bad bad cliche')

A working man could support his family on one income in the sixties. Now two incomes are required; that is a pretty marked change.

I work in the blue collar sector and see job ads paying the exact same wage I was making 16 years ago for the same position. Luckily I have switched gears to a degree and am working in a profession with an extreme labour shortage. I feel very sorry for those with no education or marketable skills. It must be tough trying to survive on minimum wage.

Overall there has been less than 20 % growth in wages in my area over the past decade and a half. A decent factory job payed between 12 and 16 bucks an hour then and pays maybe as high as the low twenties now. 8, 10 or 12 buck/hr jobs are a dime a dozen. What is worse is the fact that most of these jobs are through a temp agency; zero job security!

I know some of my kids will return, or not leave our nest until they have a sizable down payment. They are well aware of how money works. Luckily me and the missus really like our kids.

As for inflation, everyone has to be feeling that pinch too, unless one is buying computers or electronics. Motorcycles have doubled in price in the last couple of decades, although I suppose one is getting way more bang for the buck now. (I was a road racer) Housing is through the roof as are the little things. I noticed too, Wildrose, how much of my grocery bill is BS things like toothpaste, vitamins, laundry detergent, etc. Food is still cheap in comparison; however each of these items seems to add about 10 bucks to the bill.

I know one thing, it sure as hell isn't getting easier, and I'm one of the lucky ones!

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Re: Middle Class Families in Worse Shape Than Ever, Study Fi

Unread postby Tyler_JC » Thu 19 Oct 2006, 22:01:41

http://karmak.org/archive/2004/04/incom ... h97pie.gif

There you go.

1% own 39% of the stuff.
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Re: Middle Class Families in Worse Shape Than Ever, Study Fi

Unread postby WildRose » Thu 19 Oct 2006, 22:04:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ClubOfRomeII', 'I') am 41, and never in my life have I bought into a pyramid scheme. Or gotten a mortgage for a house I might add.



CORII, if you don't mind me asking, did you buy a home? Or have you always rented?
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Re: Middle Class Families in Worse Shape Than Ever, Study Fi

Unread postby Revi » Thu 19 Oct 2006, 22:24:35

We went to pick up commodities for a soup kitchen we help out yesterday and heard something very scary. The guy who runs the place and picks up food for all the local food pantries says that almost every place in the state is practically out of food. The number of people needing food is up, and the amount of food is down. People are coming that never came before. They are the working poor. They can't make ends meet now, and we aren't even into the heating season. It's getting bad out there.

The really scary part is that we aren't too far behind the working poor. I noticed that even with all the conservation and efficiency we have done, the bills still come up to what we make every month and sometimes more. We're next...
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Re: Middle Class Families in Worse Shape Than Ever, Study Fi

Unread postby WildRose » Thu 19 Oct 2006, 22:26:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kenohio', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('WildRose', '
')
I agree with not biting off more than one can chew, but I can see how easily the dilemma can develop for young people today. How can you save money for a downpayment when you have to pay back student loans and somehow afford the rising costs of living, which will affect you even as you live in a small apartment and try to save money? It seems that the only way a young couple can start out without huge debt is if they have a big hand up from their parents, and I know that's impossible in most cases.



I think that is the whole issue we all have to come to grips with in the emerging American economic reality. In the past it was pretty much guaranteed, that if you obtained a college degree you would end up earning enough to give you a spot in the Middle Class. Heck even if you didn't get a college degree, but were fortunate enough to get on at the mill, factory or government job you were going to be middle class.

Now that isn't the case, but the expectations that everything is the same are still the common mindset. The adjustment to reality will be very dramatic and unfortunate indeed.



I remember back in the mid-70's, here in Alberta, friends of mine were attending university, not working during the school months but working from May to August at factory jobs, earning $12 to $14 per hour. So, 30 years ago they were able to earn enough money working just 4 months of the year to pay for their tuition and have spending money the rest of the year. They were frugal in their spending, but still - contrast that to students today, working one or two jobs all year long for minimum wage.

The erosion of pension plans will also cause the middle class to shrink. Years ago, if you put in 25 years working as a locomotive engineer, or put in the same time in the army or a good factory job in the private sector, you would receive an attractive pension that, added to your RRSP's and any work that you did afterwards, would ensure you enjoyed the same standard of living during your retirement.

Yep, I agree we are going to have to adjust our expectations downwards quite a bit, and it won't be pleasant. I'd wager that many people have started this process already. I think many businesses will also have to adjust their expectations downwards a whole lot as the buying power of the middle class disappears.
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Re: Middle Class Families in Worse Shape Than Ever, Study Fi

Unread postby WildRose » Thu 19 Oct 2006, 22:34:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('drew', '
')I know some of my kids will return, or not leave our nest until they have a sizable down payment. They are well aware of how money works. Luckily me and the missus really like our kids.



Same here! We have pretty much resigned ourselves to this reality, athough we do have a very independent 20-year-old who is SO looking forward to having her own place, even though she loves the lot of us and realizes she has to get established first, somehow.

I think if not for the fact that our kids could very well need to be in our home longer, we would downsize our home from the modest 1100 sq. ft. we have to one size smaller.
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Re: Middle Class Families in Worse Shape Than Ever, Study Fi

Unread postby ClubOfRomeII » Fri 20 Oct 2006, 18:12:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('WildRose', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ClubOfRomeII', 'I') am 41, and never in my life have I bought into a pyramid scheme. Or gotten a mortgage for a house I might add.



CORII, if you don't mind me asking, did you buy a home? Or have you always rented?


Always rented. Always will.
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Re: Middle Class Families in Worse Shape Than Ever, Study Fi

Unread postby Denny » Fri 20 Oct 2006, 18:59:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ClubOfRomeII', '
')
Always rented. Always will.


I can understand somebody renting if they know they cannot establish roots in a community, due to a transient nature of their work. But the inherent satisfaction of owning your own home, even outside the financial, carry a lot of weight in the decision. To be honest, would our communities be so attractive if everybody rented? Who would invest the time and and the money into landscaping for instance?

And then the financial. I just estimated that if I rented my home it would take the post-tax interest from an approximately similar investment just to pay the rent. At least this year. Lord knows what it will be ten years from now.

Also, there seems to be a social imperative to own, that its like a badge of success, even if one's place if fairly modest. Isn't that why the Central Mortgage and Housing Corporation was set upo by the government after World War II, so more of the public could get access to decent rated mortgages?
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Re: Middle Class Families in Worse Shape Than Ever, Study Fi

Unread postby ClubOfRomeII » Fri 20 Oct 2006, 20:25:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Denny', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ClubOfRomeII', '
')
Always rented. Always will.


Also, there seems to be a social imperative to own, that its like a badge of success, even if one's place if fairly modest. Isn't that why the Central Mortgage and Housing Corporation was set upo by the government after World War II, so more of the public could get access to decent rated mortgages?


Many many moons ago, my wife got so pissed at me for not buying a home ( 2 yuppies, no kids, $90G home, 4 story, 3000sq ft, etc etc ), she rounded up my SSN, went to the bank, got us pre approved for the mortgage she needed for the house she wanted to buy, and brought all the papers home for me to sign, plunked them down on the kitchen table, and was just raring to go.

2 days later I asked for a divorce.

Wife #2 refuses to take the same risk. Smart woman.

My children were born, and brought home, and lived in, a rental house until they were both better than 6 years old. When we needed a bigger place last year, I cast an eye about the neighborhood, choose carefully, and paid $50/month less, 3 blocks away, for an additional 1500 sq ft, 2 more bedrooms, 1 more bathroom, and located on a cul-de-sac for bicycles rather than the more busy residential road where we had been previously. And as icing on the cake, I went halfsy's with the landlord, installed a second swamp cooler, and dropped my summer cooling bills by $200/month over DirectX. Heating bills went up slightly.

I pay approximately $500/month less in rent than what the mortgage costs the landlord. With luck, I'll get at least the 9 year old out of the house into college before I have to move again.

My income for my "impossible" lifestyle doesn't repair concrete, fix roof's, hot water tank, doors or anything else. My "impossible" lifestyle is nothing more than careful choices designed for maximum family time, relaxed after work living, and a desire to enjoy life with the family before teenagerhood hits the children.

I consider my quality of living reduced if I have to dig a water line ditch, repair the back porch, fix a water pipe, install new carpet or any of the other myriad tasks associated with home ownership which I consider wastes of time compared to reading a good book or playing with the kids. When I invest my money, I do it pretax in a 401K equivalent which I have day to day control over, I get as close to the IRS max as possible, and when I retire, if I can't live the rest of my life in nice hotels and drive nice cars and take nice vacations and spend frivilously on the children from my RV, until I keel over, and still give them a larger than normal inheritance, I will consider my long term planning a failure.

Until I stopped in here I didn't realize what I was doing was impossible. I am an advocate of learning something new every day.
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Re: Middle Class Families in Worse Shape Than Ever, Study Fi

Unread postby Revi » Sat 21 Oct 2006, 22:59:07

There are lots of ways of living. I like owning a house that doesn't cost much to keep going. Soon we will only have to pay the water bill, the taxes and maintenance. That's security. The world may go crackerdog, but we can still get around the house on PV solar, take a bath with solar hot water and eat stuff from the garden. We get our wood from our woodlot, and maple syrup in the spring, so if we can still get a bag of flour we can make pancakes on the woodstove. We're walking distance to downtown and we're building a solar car to get around. Here's the website:

www.sunnev.com

It should be fun!
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Re: Middle Class Families in Worse Shape Than Ever, Study Fi

Unread postby Vexed » Sun 22 Oct 2006, 04:03:12

I read this thread right up to your post Thuja, and I have to say it slapped me across the head.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thuja', 'S')o how about an example. A young family purchases a very modest 220,000$ home out West somewhere. Its about 1300 square feet and has 3 bedrooms and 1.5 bathrooms. They have saved up 20,000$ so they have a 200,000$ mortgage. With mortgage insurance, homeowners insurance and property taxes, they will pay about 1500$ a month. Utilities and phone costs another 300 a month on average. Food costs about 600$ a month, and they only have one car. The car payment is 250 $ a month. Dad and mom both went to college and have 4 year degrees. They also have 50,000$ in school debt. Thats another 300 a month for the next 10 years. There are daycare costs of 600$ a month while both parents work (and that is a low estimate). They want to put aside money for retirement and try to put aside 400$ a month. They will need 150$ a month for gasoline. Finally they need at least 500$ a month for miscelaneous expendables. This includes when the car breaks down, Christmas presents, haircuts, new clothes, books for the kids, dinner out twice a month, etc. So here's the whole tab.

Mortgage+insurance/taxes= 1500$
Utilities= 300$
Food= 600$
Car payment= 250$
School debt= 300$
Daycare= 600$
Retirement= 400$
Gas for car= 150$
Miscellaneous= 500$


Total= 4600$

With taxes they need to have about 5800$ gross to come up with 4600 net. Lets round up to 6000 $ net a month and say they need about 72,000$ a year to live a very modest middle class life. We haven't even mentioned plasma TVs, vacations, trips to the parents on the other coast, etc.

Both need to earn about 36,000 a year. There's a number of jobs that earn more than that but most require post graduate degrees. Going back to school for one of them would cripple them with debt while they are trying to "get ahead". And if one of them gets sick, injured or disabled, its lights out...head to bankruptcy court.

ClubofRomeII...please read the Two Parent Trap. 35 years ago, a family could survive on the wages of one bread earner- the Dad. Today, its nearly impossible to survive on two incomes. Don't talk to me about electronic gadgets...you haven't thought it through.


How about a different example. My numbers.

Mortgage+insurance/taxes= We rent / 800$ month

-one day my wife and I will build the home we want.

Utilities= 50$

Food= 400$

Car payment= 0$


-we don't buy cars unless we can pay cash

School debt= 150$

Daycare= 0$

-We will have kids when we have time for them, and something
to teach them worth learning. Right now we are focusing on
developing ourselves. Skills. Talents. Achieving goals.

Retirement= 0$

-Whatever we have left at the end of each month goes into
savings.

Gas for car= 200-500$

-Depends on which of our cars we drive :) I love my new sports
car but its a gas guzzler.

Miscellaneous= 500$

-The family you are talking about, if they are average Americans,
probably spend most of their Misc. cash paying credit card
interest. My wife and I have never had credit cards. We fear
them. When we first met both of us could name more thrift store
chains than department store chains.

Total= 2100-2400 per month$


By putting ourselves in a position where we are only spending $1200 per person per month, we have watched our savings and investments grow substantially.

I am not saying: "I got mine."

I am saying my wife and I spent a lot of time thinking about what we wanted and the best way to get there. We knew there would be periods where we would work 15 hour days and eat Ramen. We knew our path would be a lot harder if we buried ourselves in a huge mortgage, or had kids right off the bat.

Now, because of our planning, we have much more control of our lives. This does not mean that I look down on folks experiencing tough times. I have argued both side of this issue, and I do believe "the system" has a great deal to do with the decay of the middle class dream. My grandfather raised 5 kids solely on his paycheck, and they lacked nothing essential.

But the example you give Thuja is a bit different in my head.

It reminds me of too many folks I know personally who really haven't taken any responsibility for their actions of late. I have never felt the world owed me anything. Many folks I know, do. They don't have a clue how blessed they are.

I have friends who have bought homes they couldn't afford because they were competing with peers.

I have friends who have decided to have kids before they were anywhere close to being able to financially support them.

They really feel they deserve to have things work out for them. I hope things do work out for them.

But, in the cases when I have watched things go sour, they almost always seem to find someone or something else to blame. They never look in the mirror. Because if they were looking in the mirror, and being honest with themselves, they would have to face the truth.








This is the world we live in. Prepare for it.
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Re: Middle Class Families in Worse Shape Than Ever, Study Fi

Unread postby Denny » Sun 22 Oct 2006, 12:17:36

Vexed, I think you are on the right track there. I think for a couple, without children, you keep a lot of flexiblility by not owning a residence.

Your only downside risk is being outside the loop as real estate rises in value. But, if you invest well, you can overcome that too. For instance having a good share of your investment in REIT's. Which also reduces the investment income tax load.

Making interest, instead of paying it, is smart. Not to brag, but that is the same philosophy my wife and I used in our first couple of years.

We finally did buy a smaller home, but we were able to pay half the principal cost of it upfront, and we had an open mortgage and we put every bit of overtime money I made into estinguishing that, which I was able to do 3.5 years later. And, by then, my first born had come along, and my wife stayed home full time. We camped for our vacations. My wife drove a 13 year old car that I learned to repair, often, but not always that well. We used a wringer washing machine, and had no VCR or even a dishwasher for those years while we had the mortgage. Mind you back then, a VCR cost about $500, like about $1,000 today. And, I would not change it for the world. It was an adventure, and gave me a sense of accomplishment to follow this path. I was also blessed with a wife who had good common sense and few materialistic ambitions.

Two years later, I saved up enough to do a cash deal on a larger four bedroom home. So, we have lived mortgage free for about 22 years now. And, in addition to a free and clear home, I have enough retirement savings to earn about $30K a year, right now, if I parked the savings in a mix of income trusts.
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Re: Middle Class Families in Worse Shape Than Ever, Study Fi

Unread postby mmasters » Sun 22 Oct 2006, 18:31:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', 'h')ttp://karmak.org/archive/2004/04/income&wealth_files/wealth97pie.gif

There you go.

1% own 39% of the stuff.

This has gone up quite a bit too in recent years. It's now around the top 1% owning 50% and the top 10% approaching 90%

Can you imagine though given a serious depression in the coming years the top 1% could come to own 90% along with the top 10% owning 99% !
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mmasters
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