[Twilight]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Peleg', 'P')O is becoming the type of thing you dare not speak about above a whisper if you want to be a career track person.

[allenwrench]

The high priest of “peak oil” thinks world oil output can now only decline

http://www.economist.com/people/display ... d=11702995

Nice the Econ is printing the words PO. I wrote them last year and nothing. Better late than never

But why call names Econ...High priest??

Dismissing peak oil as 'just a theory' is an easy and quick way to rebut PO.

If the question is when we will peak - yes we can only theorize.

If the question is if we will peak - then it is not a theory and only a question of time.

No one knows the exact peak date for world oil production, but we do know that time will come in the not so distant future. But finding the peak is not hard problem once we can look back on it by a few years...but we need some time to do it...again, only time will settle this debate.

And the possibility may be that we find another big discovery and the peak dates look more like a double top stock market chart than the drop over a cliff.



But all this does not really matter. The bottom line is we are running out of crude no matter how the hard the spin doctors try to masturbate the facts.

The fact that 'we have to estimate' reserves or useful life of anything says that the item in question does not have an infinite supply or life span.

I never argue with persons claiming that we have peaked already or others that claim the peak is 20 years away. To me they are both on the same page, just looking at different paragraphs.

But the person that thinks that the world can go on forever using 31,000,000,000 barrels a year of crude and never have to pay the bill with the eventual depletion of fossil fuels is just plain wrong.

"If the public does think briefly about future oil supplies, the question usually asked is, "How long will oil last?" This is the wrong question. Oil will be extracted in some insignificant quantity perhaps 200 years from now. The critical question is: When does the peak of world oil production occur?" ~ Richard C. Duncan

[copious.abundance]

What else do you expect Matt Simmons to say?

[FrankRichards]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'W')hat else do you expect Matt Simmons to say?

[Daniel_Plainview]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('allenwrench', '
')But why call names Econ...High priest??

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FrankRichards', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'W')hat else do you expect Matt Simmons to say?

[Serial_Worrier]

He's totally right. $200/bbl is coming in 2010. A world economy in smoldering ruins. God, I really miss the "$300/bbl = world economy in smoldering ruins" sticky thread.

[kpeavey]

Simmons is the De Facto spokesman for Peak Oil

[BigTex]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FrankRichards', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'W')hat else do you expect Matt Simmons to say?

[CrudeAwakening]

It's kind of ironic that followers of Julian Simon promulgate the idea that lower prices of commodities indicate increasing abundance, but won't accept the corollary that higher prices indicate increasing scarcity.

[Nano]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('allenwrench', 'B')ut all this does not really matter. The bottom line is we are running out of crude no matter how the hard the spin doctors try to masturbate the facts.

[ROCKMAN]

I prefer "High Priest"...lends a picture of a robed figure leading the ignorant masses down a particular road....rightly or wrongly.

"God" conjures up an image of someone who could actually affect the situation.

[ROCKMAN]

Serial_Worrier,

I'll go back to my old harp: might not be physically possible to have the global economy "in smoldering ruins" and $200/bbl.

The last time (1986) the global economy was "in smoldering ruins" oil went to $10/bbl.

But this isn't 1986 and PO wasn't looking them in the eyeballs back then. The demand destruction/PO race is on: place your bets ladies and gentlemen.

[allenwrench]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Nano', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('allenwrench', 'B')ut all this does not really matter. The bottom line is we are running out of crude no matter how the hard the spin doctors try to masturbate the facts.

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', '
')
The last time (1986) the global economy was "in smoldering ruins" oil went to $10/bbl.

[jdumars]

Man, that article is the only thing you could come up with to try and "discredit" Simmons?

Have you read Twilight in the Desert?

[dohboi]

Revi found this and we both agreed it deserved a thread of its own. I was glad to see a somewhat more detailed analysis from this grandfather (or midwife?) of PO.

Simmons slideshow

mos (at least) should chime in with his well articulated counter-analysis.

[mos6507]

Matt used to be on the news on a regular basis as our chosen Peak Oil prophet but since he overlooked the credit crisis he's going to have to spend some time in the doghouse. I am not interested in his slideshows right now.

I think people are NOT going to be very receptive to the peak oil topic for some time. They may be concerned about global warming or dependence on "foreign" oil, but peak oil will become a fringe topic once again until the next super-spike.

Now is the time to take advantage of the lull and prep as best you can. It's no longer time to raise awareness by talking about $4 gas around the watercooler.