[Revi]

They are putting out a foul brew. It is a combo of tar sand, ethanol and NGL. It all sounds good, but it isn't the same stuff as we got before. Look at the octane of gas nowadays. It's all much lower than the gas we used to get. We may have hit a new high, or maybe it's a new low.

[dsula]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'N')GL (counted by the liars at EIA) is not oil, but rather a minor subset that may replace some gasoline. This is why (among several reasons) diesel prices remain historically high. You can gin up the gas supply with fake gasoline substitutes, but not diesel which is made from real oil

Including ethanol as oil is equally disingenuous. It ruins engines. My 2-stroke and 4-stroke lawn tools are in the shop because the corn liqueur destroyed parts. What is that doing to the expensive volvo and tacoma? It is also has a negative EROEI and so is double counting. The natural gas, coal, petroleum that goes into farming and distillation should be debited from the IEA numbers.

Real oil is in decline.

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('meemoe_uk', 'T')his evidences what I say about the IEA making 2 contradictory statements, their figures say peak oil hasn't happened yet, yet they will publish assertions of peak oil being 4 years ago. Still waiting for Pops to get back to me on that one.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'C')onventional oil production volume hasn't increased in half a decade – the $20/bbl kind we've been burning for 150 years can't meet demand regardless of the record prices.

[Lore]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', '
')Sorry, meemoe is right. Doomers are constantly shifting the goalposts. We're using new technology to extract new oil. Been going on for 150 years.

[ralfy]

Also, if we look at production per capita (which is more logical as we need to factor in increasing population as we consider increasing production), then we see that that peaked back in 1979.

Thus, any "record" in total production won't be enough until we go back to that peak and exceed it.

And then there's oil demand, which we are meeting with non-conventional sources. A better scenario would be seeing major increases in conventional sources similar to those of the past.

[dorlomin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', '
')Sorry, meemoe is right.

[sparky]

.
I supported some of his stuff on the solar cycle 24 thread

His numbers are basically correct
so are the objection on including ethanol in the total , completely different stuff

as for tar sand shale oil and pre-salt oceanic oil ,
things must be pretty bad to go so far , so deep and wring oil out of a stone
it illustrate very well the problem , good cheap oil is pretty much gone
with the conventional giant fields going in irreversible decline

a side comment ..... the crisis is on oil Exports, what is available on the world market
all the producers increase their need faster than world production
politics get nasty when the exporting countries governments try to limit local consumption

The present drop in prices is due to slack demand due to the depression and Saudi Arabia waging economic warfare against Iran
and no they are NOT brothers.

[dorlomin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sparky', '.')
I supported some of his stuff on the solar cycle 24 thread

His numbers are basically correct

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'S')orry, meemoe is right. Doomers are constantly shifting the goalposts. We're using new technology to extract new oil. Been going on for 150 years.

[dohboi]

Great to see that memes believes something outside of his own imagination. So IEA is now his trusted source. So he now also accepts these other statements from the Fatih Birol of IEA:
"It would come as a very, very big surprise to me if we saw a significant decline in [2012] CO2 emissions."
[url]
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/05/2 ... 42785.html[/url]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ') "What I see now with existing investments for plants under construction … we are seeing the door for a 2 degree Celsius target about to be closed and closed forever"...

A major reason for rising carbon dioxide emissions was fossil fuel subsidies, he added.

In 2012, $630 billion was spent on fossil fuel subsidies globally, with half of this from the Middle East and the other half from the rest of the world, Birol said.

"By contrast, in 2010, fuel subsidies totalled $400 billion. We are going backwards," he said.

[sparky]

.
Well numbers are numbers , they can be dissected , analyzed of course
but they are what can be taken as reality
I am a strong believer in peak oil happening now ,
I could be wrong by a decade ( maybe not )
Tar sands , shale oil and pre-salts have changed things , though in my mind not the end result

I don't mind being wrong , my ego can deal with it , facts are my only concern

[vtsnowedin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sparky', '.')
Well numbers are numbers , ..,..,
I could be wrong by a decade ( maybe not )

[dorlomin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', '
')Any time a new technology allows production from new sources,

[Lore]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'D')orlomin, magnificant!

It became apparent years ago that Oilfinder has no intention of entering into honest debate. He is a fascinating phenomena. Rarely looses his cool. Always smiling. Somewhat humorous. Takes on all comers. You almost think he was planted here to drive page views. Could he be the ever-elusive admin?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dorlomin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'C')orn ethanol, hydrofracking rock and extracting tar sands are not new technologies.

[sparky]

.
Actually the first modern commercial use of crude oil was for lighting , for about 50 years !
the kerosene lamp brought a revolution in household and public places habits
previous illumination technique were expensive , messy and quite dangerous
this use was pushed and perfected by the forvceful and not always ethical genius of Rockefeller and his Standard oil
from New York to warlords ravaged China , he was giving away cheap lamps but you had to buy his kero

Using it for energy was not very successful at first , coal fired steam was ( and still is ) much more powerful
the military Navies of the world worked on the problem , encountering great difficulties
until the British First Sea lord Fisher could confidently convert the Royal Navy to oil from around 1905

the motor car , trucks and airplane developped at the same times