[dissident]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('M_B_S', 'h')ttp://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/wfs-home/foodpricesindex/en/






Yes, there is a exponential function underlying the graph from 2000-2012

It is ~7% growth per year 2000-2012

M_B_S

[M_B_S]

http://agfax.com/2012/04/30/keith-good- ... cord-high/

Javier Blas and Emiko Terazono reported yesterday at the Financial Times Online that, “The price of soyabeans is heading towards the record high set during the 2007-08 food crisis, which is set to reignite fears of runaway global food inflation.“The surge in prices is because of falling global production levels following dry weather in Latin America and increased China imports.”

And Owen Fletcher reported in Saturday’s Wall Street Journal that, “Corn prices jumped 4.6% after the federal government reported the sixth-largest export sale ever for the grain, which analysts believe is headed for China.....
***********************************************
Climate Change + Peak Oil = record high food prices!

It was allways so and it will allways be so.

M_B_S

[careinke]

Well wheat is nowhere near its highs. It is currently selling at around $7 per bushel. On the bright side, the extra rain in Eastern Oregon has basically doubled our dry-land wheat production.

[M_B_S]

High quality global journalism requires investment. Please share this article with others using the link below, do not cut & paste the article. See our Ts&Cs and Copyright Policy for more detail. Email ftsales.support@ft.com to buy additional rights. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/04127994-c06f ... z1z43zFNSL

Jerry Norton, who chairs the grain estimates committee at the US Department of Agriculture, said about 25-30 per cent of the domestic “corn belt”, the main growing area, could be affected.

“It would be hard for it to be a worse situation,” he said.
“I’m not trying to overdramatise it.”
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Thats Climate Change

You will hit hard!

We hit 400ppm CO2 next year ........

M_B_S

[sparky]

.
while the U.S crops fry , the northern European drown
a cold and wet summer is playing havoc with the wheat harvest
any more moisture and delay and the grain will start germinating in the ears
making the stuff useless but for cattle feed

I've been watching the Tour de France bike race , not for the sport , for the scenery
by the first week of august , the fields should be fresh stubble ,
this years many fieds are still unharvested and spectator wear too much clothing for the season .
it's anecdotic ,I know but it's real time instead of the two weeks careful number crunching of the DoA Weekly crop and weather bulletin

[M_B_S]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')AMBURG, July 11 (Reuters) - European wheat futures hit
fresh contract highs on Wednesday as the U.S. Department of
Agriculture slashed the outlook for corn supply in the United
States in the wake of the worst drought in a quarter of a
century in the Midwest grain belt, but prices fell back in late
trade. ...

[sparky]

It's just starting !the WASDE report is handling weeks old data. the figure for Eu-27 are optimistic . the wheat contracts on the Chicago board of trade are taking off like spooked partridges

due to the miserably wet weather, the wheat basket of northern france and Belgium are harvested in the rain !!!

crop moisture is reported at 17% some as high as 20% and the weigh of the harvest is to be discounted by 7~ 8% , due to the high water content

there will be a lot of spoilage and germination, drying so much grain so fast is not possible or economical

[careinke]

Our East Oregon wheat crop is looking more and more profitable.

[Loki]

Interesting post from a pig farmer in Washington state about rising meat prices due to the drought.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') watch the price of inputs (which is farmer-jargon for "stuff you have to buy") and I watch market prices of finished animals, and there are two things that are being very odd this year: Meat prices and feed prices.

The first thing that struck me is that finished meats are at the highest prices I've ever seen. If you own a beef cow right you you are, in a market-price sense, a very happy camper. Beef prices are VERY high right now, and it's caused the prices of most cows to jump quite a bit....

Pork is likewise high; the pig market in Washington state isn't as developed, but I've started to see auction prices that I consider pretty reasonable (as someone who sells pork). a 280lb finished pig is getting $200-225 at auction, which is lower than my cost of production, but is a vast improvement over $90 for that same size pig 2 years ago. I'm seeing more no-sales at the auction from pig producers, which I appreciate.

This is based on higher feed costs, a substantial and sustained drought in beef production areas (Midwest and south) and trends that have reduced the supply of both pigs and cattle.

The drought is making feeding cattle and hogs more expensive, and it forced cattle producers to reduce their herds over the last few years. Both of those mean that the US cattle herd is at the lowest number it has been since the 1950s! ...

What would I do if I were a consumer?

I'd seriously consider buying a whole or half a beef RIGHT NOW or this fall. Buy before the prices rise. A whole or half will last you for up to 18 months, and your freezer allows you to reduce your beef prices. Buy a good cow now and save yourself some money.

Buy a whole or half pig soon. You're already seeing pork prices at $3/lb for the lower value cuts in the supermarket -- a whole or half pig purchase will usually cost you around that, and you get the higher value cuts, too. The local producers are slower to figure out the feed cost issue, so you've got an opportunity to buy prior to price increase.

[careinke]

An 80 lb bag of Layer pellets now costs me about $20. Fortunately I use a paddock system for my birds so the food lasts longer. But the price of our eggs is going up.

[Roy]

I started keeping laying hens in 2008.

The price of scratch grain and the price of laying pellets/mash has doubled since then.

Egg production? Not so much.

[Loki]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('careinke', 'A')n 80 lb bag of Layer pellets now costs me about $20. Fortunately I use a paddock system for my birds so the food lasts longer. But the price of our eggs is going up.

[Ferretlover]

FWIW catagory:
Today on the news, the severe drought and damage to the corn crops story mentioned that, due to the loss of corn for animal feed, beef, pork and chicken prices could be doubled later this year.
Seems likely as the bacon I usually buy for $3.49 to $3.99 is now $7.49. (Store greed might be part of current price hike).

[M_B_S]

Extreme weather conditions have hit grain crops in the US Midwest and the western corn belt, prompting fears of wheat shortages and sending prices higher.

As a result, the UN's Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) is warning that its food price index could soon see a sharp rebound after three consecutive months of decline.

As measured by the FAO, the wholesale cost of food hit its highest monthly figure on record in February 2011 and has since fallen by 15.4%.

Like food, it is difficult to escape the impact of the rising crude prices.


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-18857765

[M_B_S]

http://theland.farmonline.com.au/news/n ... 14465.aspx

Wheat smashes $300/t
GREGOR HEARD
19 Jul, 2012 04:00 AM
THE US corn crop continues to bake under a blazing sun, and grain prices continue to spiral upwards.
*****************

This is the beginning of the worst selfmade famine in the history of human mankind.

Dispite the fact that we know the problem of climate change very well we are still emitting record high gigatons of CO2 into our atmosphere.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_co ... _emissions


Rank Country Annual CO2 emissions[6][7]
(in thousands of metric tonnes) Percentage of global total
World 29,888,121 100%
1 China[8] 7,031,916 23.33%
2 United States 5,461,014 18.11%
- European Union (27) 4,177,817 [9] 14.04%
3 India 1,742,698 5.78%
4 Russia 1,708,653 5.67%
5 Japan 1,208,163 4.01%
6 Germany 786,660 2.61%
M_B_S

[Rod_Cloutier]

I've been debating with myself for a week now, should I stock up and hoard food essentials; which will make the food problem just that much worse, or should I just stay the course and hope for the best.

We'll I caved in to my insecurities of not having food for my kids in the fall, and winter of the coming year and today went out and spent $40 just on frozen corn, as well as other things that I don't usually buy or use such as flour and powdered milk. Total $110 in hoarding prep money spent today.

So now afterwards I have guilt. Hoarding is a temporary measure to be sure; my garden is coming along okay, but I won't feed the four of us over the winter. Now I'm thinking of buying a full size chest freezer to store larger quantities of food for the basement. (So I can feel twice as guilty I suppose?)

[M_B_S]

US says food prices to soar due to drought
The Department of Agriculture predicts an above-normal food price inflation in 2013 as drought hits half of the US.
Last Modified: 26 Jul 2012 00:11

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/americas/ ... 62344.html

Scott Shellady, a commodities trader in Chicago, said the situation with the corn crop could affect other countries as well because US food exports have increased dramatically in the last couple of decades."So we have an issue here where we have been feeding the world, but we're going to have to slowly but surely dampen down those exports," Shellady said.
***************

Warning Warning Warning

Food riots are on the way.



M_B_S

[Pops]

For people in the rich world this is primarily about protein. Most corn is either fed to animals or cars or exported




99% of sweet corn like you eat on the cob or frozen, canned etc is grown with irrigation.

Finally, only 10-15% of your prepackaged food is in the commodity price of the ingredients. IOW corn prices doubling will only increase the price of your corn flakes 10-15%, not double because the majority of the price is manufacture/packaging/marketing/profit for the middlemen.

Eggs - poultry - pork will rise in price (more or less in that order) Beef prices should fall for a time as growers thin their herds, then dairy & beef will probably rise as a result of the smaller herds.

But don't listen to me, I lost a bunch on the falling calf prices.

[M_B_S]

http://www.portageonline.com/index.php? ... &Itemid=35

Some sort of export restrictions are looming over Russia's wheat crop.

That was the prediction coming from SovEcon, a private economic agency in Russia last week.

"I think export restrictions in Russia are inevitable," says Neil Townsend, Director of Market Research with CWB. "It might not be as explicit as it's been in the past because there are a whole bunch of impending things like WTO membership and that sort of thing. Some people are speculating they'll do it by taxes."

Drought in Russia has led to estimates that production this year will be even lower than in 2010-11 when an export ban was put in place, sending world grain markets higher.
***********************************************

New food riots are on the way:

Example: Yemen

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/omar-ma ... 20428.html

With the world's media attention focused on Yemen's fight against Al-Qaeda, you would probably be forgiven for not knowing that Yemenis are facing the worst hunger crisis since records began. The term 'food insecurity' is increasingly being associated with the once self-sufficient but improvised Yemen. In fact over 44% of Yemen's population will face a lack of food to eat this year alone and the UN says that 5m Yemenis are considered "extremely food insecure".

More and background here:
http://newamericamedia.org/2012/08/hung ... unrest.php
************************

With Russia, USA, Ukraine and Argentinia out of the food export game, the actual situation is catastrophic.

PEAK OIL = PEAK FOOD

+ CLIMATE CHANGE = GLOBAL FAMINE

I predict food riots on all continents maybe without Australia.

M_B_S

[M_B_S]

Austria Agrar reports that the EU harvest in maize and wheat did not match the demand in 2012/2013.

There is a gap between the harvest 2011/2012 and 2012/2013 and no imports possible to fix the problem?

The EU comission hopes that the price demand destruction will fill the gap......

But who will fill the stomach of humans and animals?



http://www.thecropsite.com/news/11855/c ... eu-harvest

"Over the past weeks, the drought in several regions of the world has led to dramatic price increases for certain commodities, mainly maize and soya which risk destabilising certain sectors of the European agriculture.
**************************************

Oh, with food prices going higher and higher the people-herd will stampeed......

M_B_S