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The Financial Bubbles (merged)

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Has the bubble popped?

Unread postby Bytesmiths » Sat 02 Aug 2008, 11:30:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'G')DP rises but people starve.


We all know that GDP is a truthful and accurate indicator of the human condition... NOT! :-)

It might be interesting to plot energy availability together with Gross Domestic Happiness, for those countries that even bother to measure and track their citizens' happiness.
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Re: Has the bubble popped?

Unread postby shortonoil » Sat 02 Aug 2008, 12:36:29

JohnDenver said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')ops! Shot me dead on that one, pardner. The fact remains, though: The global economy continues to grow briskly, despite virtually no growth in oil production since 2004.


The Global money supply continues to grow briskly. The global economy is retracting at a devastating rate. In the last 12 months the G7 nations have seen loses of at least $15 trillion dollars in equity value. The value of US housing stocks, alone, is losing more than $3 trillion per year. The banking industry has written off loses of $470 billion to date, and a plethora of experts see at least another $1 trillion to go. Banks are beginning to fold regularly, with 90 declared distressed by the FED and Roubini is predicting at least 350 to fail in the near future, including one major.

For those completely unaware of what is happening, (such as the quote above) observe that GM posted losses of $15 billion for last quarter, yesterday. Airlines are losing $10s of billion annually, and durable goods sales are plunging. Banking, housing, airlines, autos and retail are collapsing.

This divergence from officially reported economic data, and reality has come about because the true inflation rate has been disguised for many years. This started to occur during the Clinton administration and has continued since then. The numbers were manipulated to reduce inflation adjustments for entitlements These cost adjustments were supposedly guaranteed by law. The manipulation of these numbers has allowed the government to ignore this area of exploding cost overruns until the present.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')ndeed, key statistics confirm this stagflationary reality: Annualized Real GDP Growth is about a negative 2%; M3 Growth about 16%, Real Unemployment about 13%, and Real Consumer Price Inflation about 11.8%, all according to the credible calculations of shadowstats.com.
Financial Sense

To counter this decline in real economic activity the FED and almost every central bank in the world has been exploding the money supply. This manipulation is no longer working and entire sectors of the economy are collapsing. Central banks' injections of huge amounts of paper into the system is now having almost no effect.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_code('', '[b]Table 1: A Sampling of M3 Growth[/b]
Country M3 Equivalent Growth (Y-o-Y) as of October 2007 Country M3 Equivalent Growth (Y-o-Y)

as of October 2007

Australia +18.85%
Mexico +12.5%
Brazil +18.65%
Russia +48%
Canada +12.1%
Saudi Arabia +19.5%
China* +18.5%
South Africa +23.3%
Euro-Zone +12.3%
Switzerland +0.7%
Hong Kong +31.2%
U.A.E. (as of 6/07) +34.3%[2]
India +21.2%
U.K. +11.8%
Japan +1.4%
U.S. +15.8%
Korea +12.7%
Venezuela (as of 9/07) +12.4%[3]')
Money Supply

Even China, the supposedly never ending power house of the 21st century, is reeling as it hits the energy wall. Production is plummeting throughout the country and the Shanghai market has fallen by over 50% in just the last few months. The real estate market in India, the other Asian wonder market, is collapsing. Similar scenarios are now playing out through all of South East Asia as the malaise spreads from the world’s advanced nations.

We are now truly entering one of the worst financial disaster in history. Get out of debt while you still have a job, put some money into precious metals and if you own a home that you are underwater on, walk away. You will never retrieve the original cost of the home.

The world’s declining energy budget and our three decades long deficient spending binge are working in collaboration to bring about the perfect storm.

Available Energy
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Re: Has the bubble popped?

Unread postby Bytesmiths » Sat 02 Aug 2008, 15:23:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'M')y only question is this: why do we have to wait for that tragic moment to stop digging ourselves deeper?

We don't, if you mean "we" as in "a small group of dedicated people."

If by "we" you mean "the human race" or "western civilization," then I think the question is more open.
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Re: Has the bubble popped?

Unread postby skeptik » Sat 02 Aug 2008, 15:48:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Bytesmiths', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'G')DP rises but people starve.


We all know that GDP is a truthful and accurate indicator of the human condition... NOT! :-)


Indeed.

crime goes up. more public wealth is stolen and trashed. It gets replaced, often via insurance. GDP goes up. more private prisons are built. GDP goes up. more prisoners held at public expense. Private prisons make more profit. GDP goes up.
... in reality rising crime is an entirely a cost to society. Dealing with it raises GDP but produces no net benefit, just increased taxation on the wealth creating sectors.

GDP is not a measure of benefit to society, more a measure of the speed at which money changes hands.

GDP and The parable of the home made jam.
http://thearchdruidreport.blogspot.com/ ... onomy.html
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Re: Has the bubble popped?

Unread postby JohnDenver » Sat 02 Aug 2008, 19:37:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonoil', '[')b]JohnDenver said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')ops! Shot me dead on that one, pardner. The fact remains, though: The global economy continues to grow briskly, despite virtually no growth in oil production since 2004.


The Global money supply continues to grow briskly.


Hmmm, shortonoil... Weren't you the one who said?:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonoil', 'T')he end of oil production growth, translates to the end of economic growth, and thus the end to monetary growth. With our present monetary system THERE IS NO WAY OUT OF THIS DILEMMA!

Linky dink

Sounds like you're just WAFFLING AND CONFUSED!! :o
Last edited by JohnDenver on Sat 02 Aug 2008, 19:45:03, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Has the bubble popped?

Unread postby yesplease » Sat 02 Aug 2008, 19:43:26

For the most part, economic growth drives oil consumption. To a lesser extent, oil drives economic growth, but this is only for the ~10-25% of supply that's needed for commercial transportation/plastics/etc compared to the rest for private automobiles.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Professor Membrane', ' ')Not now son, I'm making ... TOAST!
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Re: Has the bubble popped?

Unread postby JohnDenver » Sat 02 Aug 2008, 20:01:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonoil', '[')b]JohnDenver said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')ops! Shot me dead on that one, pardner. The fact remains, though: The global economy continues to grow briskly, despite virtually no growth in oil production since 2004.


The Global money supply continues to grow briskly.


Hmmm, shortonoil... Weren't you the one who said?:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonoil', 'T')he end of oil production growth, translates to the end of economic growth, and thus the end to monetary growth. With our present monetary system THERE IS NO WAY OUT OF THIS DILEMMA!

Linky dink

Sounds like you're just WAFFLING AND CONFUSED!! :o
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Re: Has the bubble popped?

Unread postby shortonoil » Sat 02 Aug 2008, 21:54:38

JohnDenver said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 's')hortonoil wrote:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]JohnDenver said:

Quote:
Oops! Shot me dead on that one, pardner. The fact remains, though: The global economy continues to grow briskly, despite virtually no growth in oil production since 2004.

The Global money supply continues to grow briskly.


Hmmm, shortonoil... Weren't you the one who said?:


shortonoil wrote:
The end of oil production growth, translates to the end of economic growth, and thus the end to monetary growth. With our present monetary system THERE IS NO WAY OUT OF THIS DILEMMA!

Sounds like you're just WAFFLING AND CONFUSED!!


I am glad you are following my posts from several weeks back with such diligence. It is unfortunate that you don’t understand them. To simplify for you, printing money is not the same as producing money. Printing money is making a bunch of little pieces of paper. Little cellulose based flat things decorated with colored ink that are good for stuffing pillows and starting wood stoves. They don’t represent a “note”, or promise to service a debt.

Producing money with our monetary system is creating goods and services which can service a debt that was assumed at the time the currency was created. They are promissary notes. What the central banks are now creating is little cellulose based flat things decorated with colored ink. The decline in fossil fuels’ energy contribution insures that these little bits of paper will never be redeemed at their face value, that is, debt can not be increased in a declining economy, unless you can find really stupid people who will loan funds that will not be repaid. One notable group who presently fulfills that qualification is banks and mortgage originators. It is not something they will continue to do much longer because at their present rate of demise they will not be here much longer!

Global “money supply” aka, currency in circulation, is exploding (gratis Central Banks). Monetary growth, funds that can be used to repay existing debt is disappearing at a phenomenal rate, as seen by our $100 of billions in recent defaults through out the system (which according to many is soon going to be $trillions).

Confusing currency with money is typically done by JP6, who has no comprehension of what money really is (not unlike his lack of understanding of all his other deities). Presently there is a lack of money to service existing debt, and we see this in everything from defaults on real estate, consumer debt, auto loans and huge corporate loses. This will continue and grow because, “With our present monetary system THERE IS NO WAY OUT OF THIS DILEMMA!
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Re: Has the bubble popped?

Unread postby TheDude » Sat 02 Aug 2008, 22:33:22

Getting back to speculation, if these high prices are purely artificial, why aren't inventories increasing like mad? If these high prices are preventing purchases from customers through whatever agency that oil has to go somewhere, and we have ample evidence of demand destruction going on. You could say DD or shut-in production is keeping exact pace with the rise in oil price to keep inventories stable, but that seems more than a bit too neat a coincidence, like an oil producing nation adding to its reserves the exact amount it produced each year for two decades or something...I mean, get real! :razz:
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Re: Has the bubble popped?

Unread postby DantesPeak » Sun 03 Aug 2008, 00:05:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', 'G')etting back to speculation, if these high prices are purely artificial, why aren't inventories increasing like mad? If these high prices are preventing purchases from customers through whatever agency that oil has to go somewhere, and we have ample evidence of demand destruction going on. You could say DD or shut-in production is keeping exact pace with the rise in oil price to keep inventories stable, but that seems more than a bit too neat a coincidence, like an oil producing nation adding to its reserves the exact amount it produced each year for two decades or something...I mean, get real! :razz:


Total OECD oil + product stocks were 70 million barrels less than last year as of May. Mostly that relates to the US, where demand has outstripped supply thoughout 2008 by 200,000 bpd on average.

So if speculators are buying up oil, they sure are hiding it well.
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Re: Has the bubble popped?

Unread postby TheDude » Sun 03 Aug 2008, 03:51:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', 'G')etting back to speculation, if these high prices are purely artificial, why aren't inventories increasing like mad? If these high prices are preventing purchases from customers through whatever agency that oil has to go somewhere, and we have ample evidence of demand destruction going on. You could say DD or shut-in production is keeping exact pace with the rise in oil price to keep inventories stable, but that seems more than a bit too neat a coincidence, like an oil producing nation adding to its reserves the exact amount it produced each year for two decades or something...I mean, get real! :razz:


Total OECD oil + product stocks were 70 million barrels less than last year as of May. Mostly that relates to the US, where demand has outstripped supply thoughout 2008 by 200,000 bpd on average.

So if speculators are buying up oil, they sure are hiding it well.


Think I'll post this graph from OPEC's site, which I also used in another thread:

Image

And Iraq is Non-OPEC now. The message I get from this is that they're daring us to laugh.
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Re: Has the bubble popped?

Unread postby JohnDenver » Sun 03 Aug 2008, 06:32:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', 'M')ostly that relates to the US, where demand has outstripped supply thoughout 2008 by 200,000 bpd on average.


While product exports from the US have averaged about 8 times that amount, or 1,600,000 bpd. :roll:
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Re: Has the bubble popped?

Unread postby JohnDenver » Sun 03 Aug 2008, 06:58:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', 'G')etting back to speculation, if these high prices are purely artificial, why aren't inventories increasing like mad?


The increasing inventories story depends crucially on two economic principles:

1) Increased prices will bring on more supply
2) Increased prices will decrease demand

There are serious problems with 1) because of long investment lead times and peak oil. The reality over the last few years is that increased prices are not bringing on any significant new supply.

There are serious problems with 2) because most of the countries whose oil use is still growing (Chindia, MENA) have subsidies in place which prevent consumers from seeing the international market price. So there is no logical reason why increasing prices will curb their demand.

Now, let me ask you a question:

If index speculators have no impact on commodity prices, how do you explain the fact that when index speculators were forced to sell $6 billion worth of rolling long positions in gasoline due to a rejuggling of the composition of the GSCI in 2006, gasoline prices fell $0.82 in four weeks?
Link

If speculation is just some fairy story that denialists made up to avoid facing peak oil, why are farmers, grain elevators and other long-time futures market participants totally irate about disruptions in their markets, which are almost universally blamed on the influx of hot money from Wall Street?
Link1
Link2
Link3
Link4

If not influx of speculative hot money, then what is causing the very serious failure of convergence (and other disruptions) in agricultural markets?

Why does Tom Buis, president of the National Farmers Union, say: "There's something wrong. I have doubts whether the CFTC is the place to rectify the problem - it may warrant congressional intervention. When regulators say a problem doesn't exist, despite the fact farmers cannot market their commodities that sounds an alarm."
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Re: Has the bubble popped?

Unread postby JohnDenver » Sun 03 Aug 2008, 07:01:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', 'A')nd Iraq is Non-OPEC now.


That's interesting. What's your source for that?
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Re: Has the bubble popped?

Unread postby shortonoil » Sun 03 Aug 2008, 12:10:24

JohnDenver said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')hat's interesting. What's your source for that?


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) was founded in Baghdad, Iraq, in September 1960, to unify and coordinate members' petroleum policies. OPEC members' national oil ministers meet regularly to discuss prices and, since 1982, to set crude oil production quotas. Original OPEC members include Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Venezuela. Between 1960 and 1975, the organization expanded to include Qatar (1961), Indonesia (1962), Libya (1962), the United Arab Emirates (1967), Algeria (1969), and Nigeria (1971). Ecuador and Gabon were members of OPEC, but Ecuador withdrew in December 1992, and Gabon followed suit in January 1995. Although Iraq remains a member of OPEC, Iraqi production has not been a part of any OPEC quota agreements since March 1998. EIA estimates that the current eleven OPEC members account for about 40% of world oil production, and about 2/3 of the world's proven oil reserves.

EIA

Iraq is an OPEC member in name only.
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Re: Has the bubble popped?

Unread postby TheDude » Sun 03 Aug 2008, 17:25:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')s reported by the New York Times on September 30, 2006 Goldman Sachs significantly readjusted in August of that year the GSCI's gasoline weighting. Index products tracking the GSCI, and representing an estimated $60 billion in institutional investor funds, were forced to rebalance their portfolios resulting in an unwinding of positions. Originally, unleaded gasoline made up 8.75 percent of the GSCI as of 6/30/2006 , but this was changed to just 2.3 percent, representing a sell-off of more than $6 billion in futures contracts.

As a result, gasoline fell 82 cent in the wholesale market over a four-week period, an unprecedented move; and crude oil, which in July 2006 traded over $79 per barrel for August delivery—at the time an all-time record—subsequently fell to around $56 by January 2007.


As your article points out, this begs the question of correlation vs. causation. Chalking it up to malfeasance on the part of Executive Branch is wading into conspiracy theory. You could as well pin the drop in price on herding behavior:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '')They started unwinding their positions, and those other longs also rushed to the door at the same time,” said Lawrence J. Goldstein, president of the Petroleum Industry Research Foundation.


I don't deny that futures play a part in the overall price of petroleum, just that over the long term fundamentals will determine the real price. The last few months seem to have demonstrated this aptly. Dante has shown plenty of examples of funds attempting to short oil as well, or losing out going long. Should we applaud these institutions for pulling the price back down now?

To list just four examples, India, Pakistan, Abu Dhabi, Saudi Arabia are all dealing with fuel shortages. KSA being unable to meet domestic demand seems just absurd, like being unable to find an ear of corn in Iowa. Where did that diesel go?

As for what's going on in the ag markets I can't say. I'm only up on one commodity and haven't familiarized myself with all of ag's ins and outs. I don't think we've had flat yields with three years of increasing demand for wheat or corn, however. And refiners have much more capital to deal with declining crack spreads than a lone farmer or elevator operator, or coop thereof.

Your third link suggests that storage is where the crunch is being felt, that elevator operators will soon be forced to close shop and sell for fire sale prices - possibly to those hedge funds that send junk mail offers. Although in the Depression the locals would bid for foreclosed farms, and be ready with frontier justice for outsiders who dared to bid. Perhaps something similar will happen again.

Anyway, it seems like storage in ag is much more susceptible to a global takeover than is the case with petroleum products, being primarily the domain of small operators.
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Re: Has the bubble popped?

Unread postby DantesPeak » Sun 03 Aug 2008, 18:09:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', '
')To list just four examples, India, Pakistan, Abu Dhabi, Saudi Arabia are all dealing with fuel shortages. KSA being unable to meet domestic demand seems just absurd, like being unable to find an ear of corn in Iowa. Where did that diesel go?



My WAG as to why the KSA has diesel shortages:

demand is growing fast
available supplies are not in the areas most in need
weather has been dry and there is more reliance on diesel for pumping water
refineries can't produce more

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')audi Aramco denies shortage of fuel to rural areas

July 27, 2008

DHAHRAN – Saudi Aramco said, Sunday, it has not received any complaints from clients about shortages of its products in any local market. The statement comes after farmers have complained that diesel has been undersupplied to the rural regions of the Kingdom.
Farmers complained of their crops being in danger of drying up because they could not acquire diesel for their water pumps to irrigate the fields. Truck drivers also complained of shortages at filling stations in June.

It said it increased diesel sales to its customers in Al-Qasim and Hail by 15 percent this year. It also said its sales to customers in the Al-Jouf region have increased by 31 percent because of increased demand from last year, Al-Hayat reported.


Saudi Gazette
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