by JohnDenver » Sun 03 Aug 2008, 06:58:36
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', 'G')etting back to speculation, if these high prices are purely artificial, why aren't inventories increasing like mad?
The increasing inventories story depends crucially on two economic principles:
1) Increased prices will bring on more supply
2) Increased prices will decrease demand
There are serious problems with 1) because of long investment lead times and peak oil. The reality over the last few years is that increased prices are not bringing on any significant new supply.
There are serious problems with 2) because most of the countries whose oil use is still growing (Chindia, MENA) have subsidies in place which prevent consumers from seeing the international market price. So there is no logical reason why increasing prices will curb their demand.
Now, let me ask you a question:
If index speculators have no impact on commodity prices, how do you explain the fact that when index speculators were forced to sell $6 billion worth of rolling long positions in gasoline due to a rejuggling of the composition of the GSCI in 2006, gasoline prices fell $0.82 in four weeks?
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If speculation is just some fairy story that denialists made up to avoid facing peak oil, why are farmers, grain elevators and other long-time futures market participants totally irate about disruptions in their markets, which are almost universally blamed on the influx of hot money from Wall Street?
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If not influx of speculative hot money, then what is causing the very serious failure of convergence (and other disruptions) in agricultural markets?
Why does Tom Buis, president of the National Farmers Union, say: "There's something wrong. I have doubts whether the CFTC is the place to rectify the problem - it may warrant congressional intervention. When regulators say a problem doesn't exist, despite the fact farmers cannot market their commodities that sounds an alarm."