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THE FDIC Thread (merged)

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: FDIC needs 500 billion?

Unread postby Thralen » Sat 07 Mar 2009, 03:15:01

Jason: Provident Pantry is another company that does #10 cans. Can't vouch for quality, never tried them but I remembered the name from when I was looking for my own #10s.

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Re: FDIC needs 500 billion?

Unread postby drgoodword » Sat 07 Mar 2009, 03:54:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jasonraymondson', 'B')tw, does anyone know of any companies other than mountain house? All they do is load everything to the hilt with salt. It is no wonder they say it will last 20 years. If you tried to survive on it for more than a couple years, you would be dead in 5, and then who would be around to challange the veracity of their statement.

BTW, the prices are rediculous, so buy for emergency use only.


Another ridiculously priced option:

http://alpineaire.com/
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Re: FDIC needs 500 billion?

Unread postby patience » Sat 07 Mar 2009, 08:17:52

I read that Shiela Bair, head of FDIC, said that they would be broke in 6 months, then another comment that if/when they get the $500 billion, they will accelerate bank closures 10x present rate. Can't remember sources, sorry. That would be in line with what was said last year about FDIC hiring more people, expecting hundreds of banks to fail in 2009. Made my run on my banks yesterday. I don't like the sound of this.

I gave up on #10 cans long ago. I use drywall mud buckets with trash bag liners, and sealable 55 gallon barrels with bag liners, both purged of air with MIG welding gas--75% argon/25% CO2. I seal up grain that way, and many other things with no worries about them keeping 10 years+ as long as the containers are not damaged. I don't think freeze-dried is practical, except for a bugout use. Costs too much and too hard to get.
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Re: FDIC needs 500 billion?

Unread postby pup55 » Sat 07 Mar 2009, 08:49:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'w')hy are we not seeing loans?


I think I can answer this one. No one will lend anyone money because no one knows what anything is worth.

BTW if the deal is enough of a no-brainer and your credit is good enough, or if you already have deep enough pockets so that you are low risk, you can get a loan right now. I just refinanced the other day, and I am still waiting for the rental property market to bottom and have been pre-approved for some money on that...so there is some money around..

But, in a general sense, no one knows what a piece of real estate is worth right now... no one knows what a share of stock is worth... the value of borrowing money so as to finance a new business or new piece of equipment is really questionable...since no one knows if there will be orders in six months, and what the pricing situation is going to be...

A second problem, directly related and critical, is still that the lenders do not know how much risk there is for a given project.... so unless the borrowers are absolute blue chippers, they are hesitant to loan out money because their risk is not adequately compensated.

A third problem: no one trusts anyone, starting at the top. No accountability, no security... How do you know that the person you are lending money to is not a mooch?

A fourth problem: Given the above 3 problems people will still be willing to loan out money if the ROR is high enough. Example: Even in a banana nation like Ecuador it is possible to get a loan... the last I checked, the prime rate, for the most trusted borrowers was about 25 percent.... With rates that high, the benefit of doing the loan was substantial enough that people would pry those pesos or whatever out of their pockets and do the deal. But here in the USA, with interest rates on government loans near zero, and interest rates on other loans approaching that, no one is adequately compensated for their risk, so they do not do the deal.

So, the downward spiral will continue. Interest rates are too low to compensate lenders.... the money dries up..... people default on business loans and mortgages.... the value of the property goes down further.... the lenders see this and keep their money.... but stupidly, Bernanke lowers interest rates again, and makes the problem worse. Therein lies the current dilemma... and it is a real problem..
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Re: FDIC needs 500 billion?

Unread postby idiom » Sun 08 Mar 2009, 01:16:50

How do you know the person you are lending to inst going to buy guns and food and disappear off to Roccman City?

It would be a hell of a thing to pull Citi apart, but the redistribution of those deposits to ther banks will shore things up a bit. Except for the Governemnt.

Better than that it should contribute to this just being a depression instead of a collapse.
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Re: FDIC needs 500 billion?

Unread postby Sixstrings » Sun 08 Mar 2009, 01:32:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')I use drywall mud buckets with trash bag liners, and sealable 55 gallon barrels with bag liners, both purged of air with MIG welding gas--75% argon/25% CO2.


Wow, now that's prepping!

As for the topic at hand.. I noticed this a couple days ago, and was quite concerned. I couldn't post about it here due to the technical issues with the forum.

But my gosh.. half a trillion for FDIC! It's a very big number, and we all know it's just a start.
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Re: FDIC needs 500 billion?

Unread postby seldom_seen » Sun 08 Mar 2009, 01:41:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pup55', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'w')hy are we not seeing loans?


I think I can answer this one. No one will lend anyone money because no one knows what anything is worth...

Along with what pup55 said, there are hundreds of thousands of people losing their jobs every month. Along with millions of others wondering if they're headed for the chopping block?

So even if they could increase the supply of cheap & easy credit, the demand has cratered.

People are in debt, trying to pay off what loans they have, and they don't trust the banks anymore. They don't want to get fked over again.

The whole idea to get "the banks lending again" is a false flag operation. Times have changed. We can't go back now. We've stepped in to a different era.
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Re: FDIC needs 500 billion?

Unread postby threadbear » Sun 08 Mar 2009, 01:52:05

Keeping people in their homes, provided they can still pay their mortgages if the interest rate is radically reduceds seems like the best use of deficit spending to me. Call me crazy, but 12 million people sleeping under bridges, while perfectly good houses sit empty, is 10 times stupider than any "moral hazard" engendered by helping people get out from under predatory mortgages.
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Re: FDIC needs 500 billion?

Unread postby smallpoxgirl » Sun 08 Mar 2009, 17:33:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', 'K')eeping people in their homes, provided they can still pay their mortgages if the interest rate is radically reduceds seems like the best use of deficit spending to me. Call me crazy, but 12 million people sleeping under bridges, while perfectly good houses sit empty, is 10 times stupider than any "moral hazard" engendered by helping people get out from under predatory mortgages.


I'm sorry, but if you can't afford to buy a house, you need to rent, just like I am. This is not about homeless bunny rabbits. It's about who pays your mortgage. Do you pay it? or do I pay it. It really pisses me off to be taxed to make someone elses mortgage payment and keep housing prices artificially inflated so I can't afford to buy one. If people can't pay their bills, they need to reduce their bills, not look to me to bail them out. If you can't afford your McMansion payment, maybe you need to move into a 2 bedroom apartment in a seedy part of town. Why is this my issue?
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Re: FDIC needs 500 billion?

Unread postby threadbear » Sun 08 Mar 2009, 18:29:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('smallpoxgirl', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', 'K')eeping people in their homes, provided they can still pay their mortgages if the interest rate is radically reduceds seems like the best use of deficit spending to me. Call me crazy, but 12 million people sleeping under bridges, while perfectly good houses sit empty, is 10 times stupider than any "moral hazard" engendered by helping people get out from under predatory mortgages.


I'm sorry, but if you can't afford to buy a house, you need to rent, just like I am. This is not about homeless bunny rabbits. It's about who pays your mortgage. Do you pay it? or do I pay it. It really pisses me off to be taxed to make someone elses mortgage payment and keep housing prices artificially inflated so I can't afford to buy one. If people can't pay their bills, they need to reduce their bills, not look to me to bail them out. If you can't afford your McMansion payment, maybe you need to move into a 2 bedroom apartment in a seedy part of town. Why is this my issue?


People who can afford to pay their mortgage, if the terms are reset, should stay in their houses. It's the least worst solution. The net loss to neighbourhoods of houses being allowed to rot, will be far more than 500 billion. They will not be rented, or rentable, except as crack houses. You want the place you rent to be sitting on the same block with a few of them? The tax load would simply shift from federal onto state, county, to manage the crime and various other social problems. The people who've been stung the worst, for the most part, are the working poor who were offered predatory mortgages they didn't understand. Those who took out jumbo loans, for homes they could barely afford on two incomes for mcMansions, WILL lose their homes.
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Re: FDIC needs 500 billion?

Unread postby smallpoxgirl » Sun 08 Mar 2009, 18:51:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', 'P')eople who can afford to pay their mortgage, if the terms are reset, should stay in their houses.


I completely disagree. If they can't pay their mortgage, they should move into an apartment. Once the price falls to a realistic level, I'll buy their house and life will go on. Absolutely no way should I pay my rent and their mortgage. No way!

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')It's the least worst solution. The net loss to neighbourhoods of houses being allowed to rot, will be far more than 500 billion. They will not be rented, or rentable, except as crack houses. You want the place you rent to be sitting on the same block with a few of them?


This is a straw man. Houses won't sit idle. The price will fall to more reasonable levels and new buyers will move in. Maintaining price inflation through government subsidies can only delay the inevitable for so long. The truth is that the US housing market is a ponzi scheme. It's falling apart now and no amount of duct tape and pork barrel spending is going to prevent that. The ONLY thing that is going to return the housing market to a reasonable place is when the prices fall far enough to represent the real value of the property as a dwelling not as an investment.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')hose who took out jumbo loans, for homes they could barely afford on two incomes for mcMansions, WILL lose their homes.


And well they should. They bought something they couldn't afford. The banks that loaned them the money had every opportunity to understand that they couldn't afford it. Pretending they CAN afford it by trying to turn me into an involuntary cosigner for them is BS.
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Re: FDIC needs 500 billion?

Unread postby threadbear » Sun 08 Mar 2009, 19:32:09

Houses ARE sitting idle, in neighbourhoods where prices have dropped significantly. Many are rotting. It's a problem with no easy solution, that can't be reduced to a simple supply side economic equation. Prices are going to fall, regardless. Those who are able to stay in their homes have the price artificially supported for as long as they are living there. Should they have to sell, they are subject to the dictates of the market, and that market price is set by people who had to sell because they lost their jobs or lied about their incomes, in the first place. I don't think you realize that many people who will lose their homes, won't qualify for govt help. There are going to be plenty of derelict homes to purchase for those who have acted responsibly.
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Re: FDIC needs 500 billion?

Unread postby smallpoxgirl » Sun 08 Mar 2009, 19:55:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', 'T')hose who are able to stay in their homes have the price artificially supported for as long as they are living there. Should they have to sell, they are subject to the dictates of the market, and that market price is set by people who had to sell because they lost their jobs or lied about their incomes, in the first place.


If your house is worth what you paid for it as a dwelling and you're able to pay for it, you have no problems. You are living where you want to live and are happily making your loan payment. If that's not the case, then you were trying to play the ponzi and got burned. Sorry, but I don't want your mortgage payment. I've got problems of my own. People don't want to own the fact that they were making risky speculative plays and got caught. Everybody from AIG to J6P wants to be a freaking victim and wants me to bail them out for their own stupid negligent investment decisions. Guess what. Life is risky. It doesn't come with padded corners and child proof caps. If you jump on the bed, you may fall off and crack your head open. That doesn't make you a victim of floor abuse. It just makes you careless and bleeding.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')here are going to be plenty of derelict homes to purchase for those who have acted responsibly.


That's not a relevant argument. It doesn't change the fact that I'm being taxed to put a scam artist in a house and price myself out of the market.
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Re: FDIC needs 500 billion?

Unread postby threadbear » Sun 08 Mar 2009, 20:10:33

AIG and the banks should be nationalized immediately. Forget bailouts, just take them over, or let them die. However, the death of these institutions could set off a chain reaction that could be really horrific. I think harm reduction is the way to go.

I agree with you that people who could never afford what they purchased in the first place, shouldn't be bailed out. And they CAN rent or double up with friends family. As far as victimization goes, poor hardworking dumb asses, rooked into mortgages with gargantuan balloon payments, deserve some kind of help. I'm thinking of people in marginal neighbourhoods, living in very modest homes, who didn't know better.
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Re: FDIC needs 500 billion?

Unread postby Cog » Sun 08 Mar 2009, 20:27:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', ' ')I'm thinking of people in marginal neighbourhoods, living in very modest homes, who didn't know better.


If you aren't intelligent enough to understand a mortgage agreement, you aren't intelligent enough to be bailed out by me.

Rewarding failure, whether its a multi-trillion dollar bankster or a slum-dweller who got a no doc loan has the same result. You get more of the same.
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Re: FDIC needs 500 billion?

Unread postby smallpoxgirl » Sun 08 Mar 2009, 20:36:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', 'A')IG and the banks should be nationalized immediately. Forget bailouts, just take them over, or let them die.

There is a legal and recognized way of dealing with these problems. When a single company gets so large that it can't function as a competitive part of the economy, the government is supposed to bring anti-trust actions. That's what they did when Standard Oil got too big to fail way back when. We need to be talking about breaking these companies up into smaller bits so that the dead parts can fail, the live parts can grow and the economy as a whole can start to function again. Likewise real estate speculators (aka "home owner") who have over-leveraged themselves and can't meet their margin calls need to fail so that more viable people can move into the market.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') think harm reduction is the way to go.

There is no harm reduction. There is harm postponement. There is harm sharing. There is no harm reduction. Chickens ALWAYS come home to roost eventually.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'p')oor hardworking dumb asses, rooked into mortgages with gargantuan balloon payments, deserve some kind of help. I'm thinking of people in marginal neighbourhoods, living in very modest homes, who didn't know better.


I work with one of those people. She's a single mother. Has a decent house in Seattle. Works at a job where she probably makes $15/hr. She sends her kids to private school. She's in an interest only mortgage on a house in Seattle that I couldn't afford. For years I've been telling her that she needs to send the kids to public school and either start paying principal on her house or get into a rental. She hasn't wanted to listen because she was making all this supposed money from the housing boom. This is the same person that still has an account at WAMU despite my numerous and dire warnings to her last fall that they were about to collapse any day. Meanwhile I've been saving my pennies and trying to learn to trade stocks. I made my own decisions about what was safe and what wasn't the same way she did. If I make a bad stock trade, nobody is going to come bail me out and give me a do-over. The risk is mine, and I accept that. I don't get why I should have to take the risk of my investment decisions and hers. Why is it that playing in the housing market is some how this saintly thing where you should be indemnified of all risk? People are adults. They make their own financial decisions, and they need to live with them. I see no reason why we need to subsidize stupid. For that matter, my land lady is probably leveraged out to her eyeballs in the housing market. But I'm supposed to bail her out so I can keep paying rent to her? Garbage!
"We were standing on the edges
Of a thousand burning bridges
Sifting through the ashes every day
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The way things were before
I lost my way" - OCMS
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Re: FDIC needs 500 billion?

Unread postby Ludi » Sun 08 Mar 2009, 20:41:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('smallpoxgirl', ' ')I'm supposed to bail her out so I can keep paying rent to her? Garbage!



Unless you make a load of money, I wouldn't worry too much about bailing her out. Those of us in the lower income brackets will be getting a tax cut. or no increase in our taxes.

Or so they tell us. But I quess I'm on crack. :roll:
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Re: FDIC needs 500 billion?

Unread postby smallpoxgirl » Sun 08 Mar 2009, 20:57:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'U')nless you make a load of money, I wouldn't worry too much about bailing her out. Those of us in the lower income brackets will be getting a tax cut. or no increase in our taxes.


Well. That changes everything. I mean if Santa is handing out the bailouts, then who am I to complain about that. :roll:

Vaguely reminds me of another time when Santa was handing out presents. 1988 I believe it was: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E5DZBFbMdjI Strangely, as I recall in 1989 Santa reneged on the deal, and all us middle class folks somehow got stuck with a big tax increase. (OK, so I was in high school in 1989, but still.)
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Now is nothing more than a memory
The way things were before
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Re: FDIC needs 500 billion?

Unread postby Ludi » Sun 08 Mar 2009, 21:02:45

Like I said, apparently I'm on crack!

I won't be paying much in taxes because I expect my income to fall into the poverty level in the not too distant future. So I'll let all you hard-working types pay for this stuff. :)

But really, if you expect Santa to bail out the holder of the bad mortgage, why don't you expect Santa to bail you out too?

Or does Santa only bail out the bad kids, and gives a lump of coal to the good kids?
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Re: FDIC needs 500 billion?

Unread postby smallpoxgirl » Sun 08 Mar 2009, 21:08:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'B')ut really, if you expect Santa to bail out the holder of the bad mortgage, why don't you expect Santa to bail you out too?

Or does Santa only bail out the bad kids, and gives a lump of coal to the good kids?


I don't want to be Santa. Not for the AIG execs. Not for my landlady. Not for my single mother coworker. Not in a box. Not with a fox. Not on a plane. Not in the rain. I have no red suit. No black shiny boots. No flying reindeer. No big bag of presents to hand out.
"We were standing on the edges
Of a thousand burning bridges
Sifting through the ashes every day
What we thought would never end
Now is nothing more than a memory
The way things were before
I lost my way" - OCMS
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