[kublikhan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', 'O')ut of the hundreds of posters on this forum that have over the years believed in an EV transition there is only one left. He must work for the industry I suspect, or be a paid astroturfer No rational person would still be promoting them otherwise.

[theluckycountry]

In January Cold, The Texas Electricity Grid Held-Up... Barely
https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/januar ... eld-barely

Dec 2023 Report: Electric vehicle acceptance increasing in Texas, though actual ownership decreased

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'E')lectric vehicle ownership has decreased in Texas from 2021 to 2023, with many Texans concerned about scant access to charging stations and high purchase cost

[kublikhan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'E')lectric vehicle ownership has decreased in Texas from 2021 to 2023, with many Texans concerned about scant access to charging stations and high purchase cost

[mousepad]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', 'T')hat is an insanely stupid method to determine EV ownership.

[kublikhan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mousepad', 'C')ould it be that large corporations and gov are buying ev fleets to convince the public how green they are? All the while normal people are done with ev?

[kublikhan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'J')an 16 2024 - Despite all the doom, gloom, and wishful thinking from the anti-EV crowd, the numbers paint a narrative of swift expansion in the commercial EV and ZEV (Zero-Emission Vehicle) markets. CALSTART’s latest figures reveal a remarkable 250% growth in the zero-emission heavy truck market.

While electric semis like the ones from Tesla and Freightliner tend to grab the headlines, it’s the commercial van segment that’s seeing the most rapid rates of EV adoption. According to CALSTART, the US has seen the deployment of more than 14,000 battery-electric cargo vans, with a significant surge of 11,835 units deployed in the first half of 2023. That is a staggering 461% increase in deployments compared to CALSTART’s previous report.

“My biggest takeaway from the latest update is just how quickly this market is growing,” explains Lund. “Especially considering the data only covers the first half of 2023, it’s encouraging to see the ‘hockey stick’ exponential growth. Deployments have increased by an order of magnitude since the first iteration of this report (January, 2022) – and all that in spite of a global pandemic, supply chain challenges and economic volatility. This tells me that the market, while still relatively small compared to the overall truck market, has some serious momentum.”

[kublikhan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'F')ebruary 8, 2024 - Talk of an implosion of the U.S. electric vehicle market is verging on ridiculous.

While there are some serious challenges surrounding EVs—such as the need to build out the nation’s charging infrastructure—automakers are on track to continue on a path of substantial growth.

Leading forecasters agree that sales and market share will continue to grow in 2024. But they disagree on the rate of growth.

Despite the storm clouds, sales were strong in 2023. U.S. consumers bought 1.19 million all-electric vehicles last year, up 46 percent from the prior year. EVs had a 7.6 percent share of overall car and light truck sales, up from 5.9 percent in the prior year.

I gathered 2024 U.S. automotive forecasts from AutoPacific, Cox and S&P Global Mobility. Their projections show increases in EV sales ranging from about 20 percent, from AutoPacific, to more than 30 percent from the others, compared to the prior year. “EV sales are increasing faster than any other segment in the industry,” said Michelle Krebs, executive auto analyst for Cox.

A major impediment is that the market doesn’t have enough EVs that cost $35,000 or less, said Ed Kim, president and chief analyst at AutoPacific. “We have too many EVs now that are at luxury price points,” he said, referring to the many models that are priced at $50,000 and above. This is one of the major reasons his firm is expecting growth to slow compared to 2023.

Several more affordable models are set for release in 2024, such as the Chevrolet Equinox EV and Volvo EX30. But it will still be a few years before just about every automaker has one or more affordable options. Kim predicts 2026 will be a likely inflection point for low-cost EVs. Some of the models that may be available then: a Tesla that will sell for $25,000, and a new version of the Chevrolet Bolt from General Motors.

Michael Brisson, an economist for Moody’s Analytics, said gasoline prices are a key variable. If prices spike, it helps EV sales. The major theme he sees is that automakers know EV demand will grow, but don’t have a firm grasp on the rate of growth or the timing.

The shift to electric vehicles is far from a smooth ride, but the numbers—both 2023 sales and 2024 forecasts—do not support the idea that we are in some kind of apocalyptic event for this segment of the auto market. The forecasters expect EV market share to reach 9 percent to 11 percent this year, which would be a substantial increase from the prior year.

If market share grows at that pace despite the many challenges, this bodes well for the middle and latter part of this decade, when there will be many more models available and charging infrastructure should be much more robust. In the meantime, we need to avoid reading too much into individual data points.

[theluckycountry]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mousepad', '
')
Could it be that large corporations and gov are buying ev fleets to convince the public how green they are? All the while normal people are done with ev?

[ralfy]

If we follow what's happening in California, Norway, China, and the Third World, many will use them as secondary vehicles, they will come up with surprising costs for battery replacement, they'll have to be charged more often at home as charging station companies lose money, will be mostly overpriced for a global population that can't afford them, and because like the rest of renewable energy have low energy quantity and return plus driven by for-profit corporations will lead to higher resource and energy use per capita.

[theluckycountry]

Segways, overpriced segways. Any EV with a decent sized battery has a break even point against ICE at about 7 years. That's for carbon emissions, that's because so much is generated during the manufacture of the batteries. Carbon free was the big selling point that sucked the masses in and it was a Lie. I still can't believe how stupid the average EV buyer was. I have met one or two people who bought them and I won't have a conversation with them. Stupidity is dangerous and driving an EV just signals to the whole world that you're a tosser, a person that can't think for themselves.

[kublikhan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', 'S')egways, overpriced segways. Any EV with a decent sized battery has a break even point against ICE at about 7 years. That's for carbon emissions, that's because so much is generated during the manufacture of the batteries. Carbon free was the big selling point that sucked the masses in and it was a Lie. I still can't believe how stupid the average EV buyer was. I have met one or two people who bought them and I won't have a conversation with them. Stupidity is dangerous and driving an EV just signals to the whole world that you're a tosser, a person that can't think for themselves.

[ralfy]

Outsource the pollution.

[theluckycountry]

The EV Slowdown Isn't Over Yet, RBC Says https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ev-sl ... t-rbc-says

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')e notes that consensus for Tesla is "calling for 14% growth in 2024 vs 2023, which would be a notable downshift from 2023’s 40% growth level, but investors are worried about price cutting to achieve consensus level volumes."

[theluckycountry]

[kublikhan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', 'N')ow go look at Ford and GM, what would you expect to see happening to their stock? Well they are going up, why? Because they have proved to the market that they are pulling out of EV.

[theluckycountry]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', '
')
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'F')ebruary 13, 2024 - Global electric vehicle sales jumped 69% in January from a year earlier. Sales of fully-electric cars, or battery electric vehicles (BEVs), and plug-in hybrids hit 1.1 million in January, up from 660,000 in January 2023.

[kublikhan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', ' ')I have never seen a more blatant case of cherry picking in my life. Here is what the headline actually says.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'L')ONDON (Reuters) - Global electric vehicle sales jumped 69% in January from a year earlier but were down 26% from December, reflecting subsidy cuts or tighter rules in Germany and France and seasonally weaker sales in China, market research firm Rho Motion said on Wednesday.

[kublikhan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', 'I')t's quite clear GM is abandoning manufacture of EV vehicles in favor of gasoline powered hybrids

[mousepad]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', '
')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', 'W')hat happens is that the electric-only range gets smaller and smaller until you are basically driving a gasoline powered car. In other words you feel 'green' for a decade and then you have to upgrade if you want to keep your bragging rights.

[kublikhan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mousepad', 'H')e's talking about normal degradation of battery capacity. Nothing to do with fast charge.
And you're right Lucky. I've got 2 neighbors who own toyota prius. And after a couple of years the battery was degraded such that it was only good for maybe pulling out of a driveway before the engine had to kick in. Who knows if that's normal. Maybe the harsh winters did it.