Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

THE Deflation Thread (merged)

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: The Fed's Deflationary Playbook

Postby Micki » Tue 07 Oct 2008, 21:50:37

I have a feeling this is setting up the stage for a snapback rally in some asset classes and now the bankers will have more money to quickly snap up assets. Was seems to be taking place right now is hoarding of cash and waiting to see what the best bargain will be.
And you know how a rally works...people and blackboxes buy because price is going up, not becasue of some fundamental change.
This is just going on gutinstinct, but I wanted to get it out as a alternate scenario to the banks just sitting there on all the cash that has been made available at bargain discount.
The question is when or what will trigger a shift...
Micki
 

Re: The Fed's Deflationary Playbook

Postby Denny » Tue 07 Oct 2008, 21:51:40

Note page 7 in the bag of tricks - The government buys private sector securities.

We are there baby!
User avatar
Denny
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1738
Joined: Sat 10 Jul 2004, 03:00:00
Location: Canada

Re: The Fed's Deflationary Playbook

Postby DantesPeak » Tue 07 Oct 2008, 21:58:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Denny', 'N')ote page 7 in the bag of tricks - The government buys private sector securities.

We are there baby!


In addition, the Exchange Stabilization Fund, now coming out of the shadows, was always allowed to 'stablize' the stock market.
Plus TARP actually lets the Treasury buy stock directly from your IRA account.

What other legal authority do they need? I see none. They could start tommorow and buy all the stocks they wanted to - legally.

At some point some part of the trillions $s in new money will also return to commodities, and the recent selloff will be quickly and almost entirely forgotten.
It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
User avatar
DantesPeak
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 6277
Joined: Sat 23 Oct 2004, 03:00:00
Location: New Jersey

Re: The Fed's Deflationary Playbook

Postby eastbay » Tue 07 Oct 2008, 23:02:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', '
')At some point some part of the trillions $s in new money will also return to commodities, and the recent selloff will be quickly and almost entirely forgotten.



That is my expectation as well. Right now we're seeing an historically unprecedented amount of cash sitting on the sidelines waiting for a comfortable time to flow. That time will arrive fairly soon.

That, combined with the immense inflationary pressure of the recent and future government/FED actions will together serve to push primary commodities, especially gold, to heights never seen before.

Add this pressure to peak oil and in time (one year, two years) we'll see oil pass $150 and head to numbers once thought unimaginable.
Got Dharma?

Everything is Impermanent. Shakyamuni Buddha
User avatar
eastbay
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 7186
Joined: Sat 18 Dec 2004, 04:00:00
Location: One Mile From the Columbia River

Deflation It Is

Postby smallpoxgirl » Fri 10 Oct 2008, 13:58:54

Oil down to $78. Gold down $82 so far today. Silver is down $2.50 today to $9.50. This is amazing.
"We were standing on the edges
Of a thousand burning bridges
Sifting through the ashes every day
What we thought would never end
Now is nothing more than a memory
The way things were before
I lost my way" - OCMS
User avatar
smallpoxgirl
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 7258
Joined: Mon 08 Nov 2004, 04:00:00

Re: Deflation It Is

Postby Arsenal » Fri 10 Oct 2008, 14:12:11

What really sucks is there is no silver or gold to find. APMEX is completely out. Deflation is the game it looks like but if you can hold off selling your PM, inflation will hit sometime afterwords. IMHO.
If the American people ever allow the banks to control issuance of their currency, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that grow up around them will deprive the people of all property until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers occupied. T Jefferson
User avatar
Arsenal
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 858
Joined: Tue 18 Mar 2008, 03:00:00

Re: Deflation It Is

Postby jlw61 » Fri 10 Oct 2008, 14:13:01

If I was going to think about investing in a metal besides copper jacketed lead, it would be silver. Eventually it's going to skyrocket again.

I may be talking like a damned fool, but between the two, the idea of deflation strikes me as more managable than than hyper-inflation.
When somebody makes a statement you don't understand, don't tell him he's crazy. Ask him what he means. -- Otto Harkaman, Space Viking
User avatar
jlw61
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 623
Joined: Mon 03 Sep 2007, 03:00:00
Location: Sunny Virginia, USA

Re: Deflation It Is

Postby threadbear » Fri 10 Oct 2008, 14:30:12

We could get mired in a long term deflation, not measured in fiscal quarters but in years, decades. It's definitely deflationary, at the moment though. No doubt. But, remember the govt has a "tool kit" and they plan to use it, which would mean inflation. But, one thing can most assuredly be counted on and that is much much lower standard of living in the developed world.
User avatar
threadbear
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 7577
Joined: Sat 22 Jan 2005, 04:00:00

Re: Deflation It Is

Postby smallpoxgirl » Fri 10 Oct 2008, 14:48:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Hogan', 'S')PG, just wait until later when the Fed tries to print their way out of the depression. Hyper-inflation all the way. Hold onto that physical gold.

I don't got no gold, but I'm holding my silver. I paid $17 each for silver eagles two days ago.
"We were standing on the edges
Of a thousand burning bridges
Sifting through the ashes every day
What we thought would never end
Now is nothing more than a memory
The way things were before
I lost my way" - OCMS
User avatar
smallpoxgirl
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 7258
Joined: Mon 08 Nov 2004, 04:00:00

Re: Deflation It Is

Postby americandream » Fri 10 Oct 2008, 14:51:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('smallpoxgirl', 'O')il down to $78. Gold down $82 so far today. Silver is down $2.50 today to $9.50. This is amazing.

This deflation masks an underlying fear (and rush to the dollar)...the fear of war!
americandream
Permanently Banned
 
Posts: 8650
Joined: Mon 18 Oct 2004, 03:00:00

Re: Deflation It Is

Postby green_achers » Fri 10 Oct 2008, 14:52:12

I wouldn't put too much credence in the posted price for gold. That number for the paper market, IOW, the people who think they're buying something that might not even exist.

Go check out Kitco, CNI, NW Territorial, etc. Right now they're paying over spot to anyone foolish enough to part with their PM's and there is no physical product available.
User avatar
green_achers
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 552
Joined: Sun 14 Aug 2005, 03:00:00
Location: Mississippi Delta

Re: Deflation It Is

Postby mattduke » Fri 10 Oct 2008, 15:02:51

Remember, it is not the crash that will cause the hyperinflation, but the government's response to the crash, which comes later.
User avatar
mattduke
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 3591
Joined: Fri 28 Oct 2005, 03:00:00

Re: Deflation It Is

Postby smallpoxgirl » Fri 10 Oct 2008, 15:37:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mattduke', 'R')emember, it is not the crash that will cause the hyperinflation, but the government's response to the crash, which comes later.

I'm not sure we have to wait that long. I think Mr. Paulson just bought us a huge chunk of the stock market. 8 days of the world about to end, then suddenly there's a 800 point rally right in the last hour of trading going into a three day weekend. No way that was anyone but treasury doing that. Looks like they're trying to run it up above 9,000.
"We were standing on the edges
Of a thousand burning bridges
Sifting through the ashes every day
What we thought would never end
Now is nothing more than a memory
The way things were before
I lost my way" - OCMS
User avatar
smallpoxgirl
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 7258
Joined: Mon 08 Nov 2004, 04:00:00
Top

Re: Deflation It Is

Postby americandream » Fri 10 Oct 2008, 15:42:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('smallpoxgirl', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mattduke', 'R')emember, it is not the crash that will cause the hyperinflation, but the government's response to the crash, which comes later.
I'm not sure we have to wait that long. I think Mr. Paulson just bought us a huge chunk of the stock market. 8 days of the world about to end, then suddenly there's a 800 point rally right in the last hour of trading going into a three day weekend. No way that was anyone but treasury doing that. Looks like they're trying to run it up above 9,000.

I was expecting this. How else could they forestall a bloodbath in after hours trading. This will hold the line till monday with rumours of bargain hunting.
americandream
Permanently Banned
 
Posts: 8650
Joined: Mon 18 Oct 2004, 03:00:00
Top

Re: Deflation It Is

Postby Starvid » Fri 10 Oct 2008, 15:55:05

Sure seems like we are heading for low inflation or even deflation now, but when we reach peak oil in a few years, what then?

Though I guess this recession will push peak oil away a further year or three. The peak in 2015 guesses don't seem so weird anymore.
Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
User avatar
Starvid
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 3021
Joined: Sun 20 Feb 2005, 04:00:00
Location: Uppsala, Sweden

Re: Deflation It Is

Postby Falconoffury » Fri 10 Oct 2008, 16:55:55

With retail silver unavailable, we should expect to see a lot more futures traders taking delivery. I may do that myself. Then we shall really see if the markets are manipulated. If COMEX can't deliver, we will finally see a skyrocket in silver prices.
"If humans don't control their numbers, nature will." -Pimentel
"There is not enough trash to go around for everyone," said Banrel, one of the participants in the cattle massacre.
"Bush, Bush, listen well: Two shoes on your head," the protesters chant
User avatar
Falconoffury
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 1395
Joined: Tue 25 May 2004, 03:00:00

Re: Deflation It Is

Postby smallpoxgirl » Fri 10 Oct 2008, 17:07:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', 'I') was expecting this. How else could they forestall a bloodbath in after hours trading. This will hold the line till monday with rumours of bargain hunting.

Yeah. I'm guessing this was also sort of a test. They were trying this to see if it would work so they could decide whether to close the exchange on Monday.
"We were standing on the edges
Of a thousand burning bridges
Sifting through the ashes every day
What we thought would never end
Now is nothing more than a memory
The way things were before
I lost my way" - OCMS
User avatar
smallpoxgirl
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 7258
Joined: Mon 08 Nov 2004, 04:00:00
Top

Re: Deflation It Is

Postby mattduke » Fri 10 Oct 2008, 17:13:40

Physical silver did not go down in price today. Ebay bars are at $1600, almost 60% over the paper price.
User avatar
mattduke
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 3591
Joined: Fri 28 Oct 2005, 03:00:00

Re: Deflation It Is

Postby sittinguy » Fri 10 Oct 2008, 17:51:59

ALRITE, I will reluctently, admit this looks like deflation. But just wait, me and all the other inflation believers will get our day in the sun. After you deflationist are done laughing it up you better go out and get some sun screen.

Oil will probably come back up soon. We all know they will slow supply to get the higher price, it just takes time to feel it. .

I was VERY confused with gold and silver today.. And sad, I want to see gold and silver go up,, UP
User avatar
sittinguy
Coal
Coal
 
Posts: 478
Joined: Fri 07 Sep 2007, 03:00:00

PreviousNext

Return to Economics & Finance

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 0 guests

cron