by jmacdaddio » Wed 26 Oct 2005, 01:02:58
The holiday 2005 shopping season will begin a spiral culminating in a 2006 recession and the end of the housing bubble. The US education system might be inadequate to prepare citizens for 21st century life, but Americans aren't all stupid. We've got a president with sinking poll numbers, two wars without end in sight, our largest corporations are going into their death spirals, millions purged from the health insurance rolls each year, millions of jobs shipped overseas each year, higher grocery bills, higher gas prices, draconian bankruptcy laws, rising interest rates, warnings of high home heating charges, and Mother Nature wreaking havoc on our playground areas. Even Joe Sixpack knows a storm is coming, and why would an average family splurge for Christmas this year when they know they will need to look in the couch for spare change to pay January's heating bill.
Once the retailers digest the carnage, look for mass layoffs which will further erode the minimum wage-to-$12 per hour class. Their suppliers will all take a hit, further depleting the stores of shoppers. Oh wait, all the suppliers are in China and India .... never mind, how silly of me. Nevetheless, the 2006 economy won't be pretty, and when rising interest rates and a bleaker jobs picture bring the housing bubble back to earth, look for even lower consumer confidence numbers.