[cube]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shady28', '.')..
Inflation in prices of commodities - including precious metals, oil, lead, grain - makes no sense in the face of an economic catastrophe. Who will be buying these things in a year?

I continue to find it amazing that, in the face of facts, people continue to hold to yesterdays 'common knowledge'.
...

[cube]

To: shady28

I don't know why you are mentioning stainless steel.
I never said steel would go up.

In every economic situation (feast or famine) there is ALWAYS something going up and something going down. I said it before and I'll say it again, "There's a bull market in commodities right now"......but I certainly never said EVERY commodity is going up.
If that were the case then investing would be easy as pie and we can all be rich by now.

If we look at chart prices for the past 3 years there is a clear pattern.
Some commodities have clearly outperformed others.
gold, oil, wheat has done pretty good. (even factoring the recent correction) .
Cattle and coffee beans while higher then 3 years ago have certainly NOT appreciated as much.

[evilgenius]

I already told Micki, months ago in another thread, that I believe gold will fall to $575. When I brought it up it was to much consternation and rebuke. I don't think that kind of immediate criticism is hanging in the air now, but myths die hard

Anyway, if gold reaches that level I will think about buying some. Things will become terribly unstable and it would be good to get gold at a price that has benefitted from correction and therefore runs the possibility of hedging a person against inflation brought about by that type of economic collapse. I will certainly not be looking to put all of my money there because it could just be a weigh station stop on the way to much lower prices, but it looks attractive from this side of things.

[cube]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('evilgenius', 'I') already told Micki, months ago in another thread, that I believe gold will fall to $575. When I brought it up it was to much consternation and rebuke. I don't think that kind of immediate criticism is hanging in the air now, but myths die hard
...

[kublikhan]

Globally, how much money has the credit crunch wiped out so far? And globally, how much new money has been created in that time? Or if anyone has just the US figures that would be helpful too.

[cube]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', 'G')lobally, how much money has the credit crunch wiped out so far? And globally, how much new money has been created in that time? Or if anyone has just the US figures that would be helpful too.

[CrudeAwakening]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', '
')One of the greatest myths out there is this ridiculous idea that there's a reduction in the money supply due to banks being more stingy lending out money. I'm at the point right now where I will NOT even bother having an economic discussion with someone unless they can agree there's an increase in the money supply.

[Twilight]

Regardless of what is happening now, the governments in question are unlikely to follow collapsing credit where it is going. For now they can do something, eventually they will back off. Choosing hyperinflation is ridiculous as those who do don't stay very influential for very long.

[firestarter]

Gold is getting absolutely annihilated. Oil is also, especially considering the Russian/Georgian situation. A currency trader over at Ticker Forum speculates that this is a continuation of several large hedge funds in the process of panic liquidations, which can suck in others holding large positions who follow suit with liquidations themselves. It doesn't help that it's op ex week either.

[Twilight]

It could well be true. It could also be a sign that the market is not buying the allegation that this is an oil war. You would expect a war involving Russia as a combatant to have the opposite effect, wouldn't you? Yet here we are.

[shady28]

There's a good bit of info out there on deflation and the relationship of credit contraction to deflation.


This is a chart of total bank credit from commercial banks - rate of change. It ends at the beginning of 2008.

http://bp2.blogger.com/_nSTO-vZpSgc/SGC ... -banks.png

Here is one on asset backed securities markets :

http://bp0.blogger.com/_nSTO-vZpSgc/SGC ... BCP-CI.gif

You might want to read this article if you want to know what's going on :

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot. ... cting.html

Last but not least, look up Mises and articles on what 'money suppy' is. For the most part (like 95%), it is credit.

[BigTex]

"Here we are" is a good description.

I'm just trying to figure out where "here" is.

I'm not buying or selling anything right now.

I think one of the broad themes that is running through this market is that we are on the verge of an oil glut as production increases incrementally and demand collapses. This may be sucking the metals down too.

As most of us here know, this scenario is unlikely to play out for any period of time, since any oil glut is probably going to be short-lived.

It is pretty shocking, though, that bullish news like the Russia-Georgia conflict would provide NO bump at all to oil or PMs.

I was imagining a modest bounce, but certainly not a decline.

I heard some silver bulls were getting waterboarded.

Interesting times.

[Jotapay]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BigTex', 'I') was imagining a modest bounce, but certainly not a decline.

[smallpoxgirl]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('firestarter', 'A') currency trader over at Ticker Forum speculates that this is a continuation of several large hedge funds in the process of panic liquidations

[kublikhan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shady28', 'T')here's a good bit of info out there on deflation and the relationship of credit contraction to deflation.
Last but not least, look up Mises and articles on what 'money suppy' is. For the most part (like 95%), it is credit.

[shady28]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', '[')
Do these metrics not include credit? Is credit really 20x the size of the metrics listed above? The graph below shows banks shrinking commercial lending 2.25%. Does that 2.25% contraction dwarf the money increase as reported by the other money metrics?
Bank Credit Collapse

My oil and PM investments have really been getting hammered lately.

[firestarter]

Anyone notice that gold is getting absolutely creamed after hours? Unwind begets unwind begets.........

[smallpoxgirl]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('firestarter', 'A')nyone notice that gold is getting absolutely creamed after hours? Unwind begets unwind begets.........

[Jotapay]

My gut feeling is that silver is a very good long term buy right now at these prices. It may just continue to fall further, making it an even better buy.

Jotapay's Investment Strategy: Silver, food stores, ammo and cash.

[smallpoxgirl]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jotapay', 'M')y gut feeling is that silver is a very good long term buy right now at these prices.