by Leanan » Wed 16 Mar 2005, 22:47:14
Just some thoughts on today's vote to drill in ANWR. It is not a done deal; the budget bill it's attached to has significant opposition, not only from environmentalists opposed to drilling in ANWR, but from fiscal conservatives, who are alarmed at the red ink.
But the vote, and the whole issue, were rather revealing...
First off, there's not much oil there. Even if the wildest wet dreams of the oil companies proved true, there's maybe eight years worth of oil there...spread out over decades of pumping, and assuming demand does not increase. Indeed, several oil companies have given up, deciding that the paltry amount of oil up there isn't worth the hassle.
Yet the way the senators were talking today, you'd think there were a dozen Saudi Arabias up there. One senator from Maryland declared that there was enough oil there to keep Maryland supplied for 100 years. Yeah, right. Even if that were true, Maryland isn't going to get dibsies on it all. It's probably not even going to get 1/50 of it, since there are bigger states in the union. But even if they did...100/50 equals 2 years of oil for each state. Whoop-de-doo. And that's an optimistic estimate.
Then there's the odd fact that Hawaii's two senators, Akaka and Inouye, voted for drilling. Why would that be? Hawaii is one of the most liberal states in the union. They are very strongly pro-environment, not only because of their general leftiness, but because tourism is their main industry.
But wait...tourism. That's the key. As the airline industry goes, so goes Hawaii. We are all dependent on oil. (There was a story on CNN this morning, about how Mattel is suffering due to high oil prices. It takes a lot of oil to make the plastic resin that's molded into Barbie dolls.) But few industries are as visibly affected by fuel prices as the airline industry. Aside from labor, fuel is their biggest cost. And vacations to Hawaii are a luxury. If the fares are high, people don't go. They go someplace closer, like Mexico or Aruba, or they drive to Niagara Falls or something instead.
High fuel prices have been brutal on Hawaii. Each county in the state is a separate island, and when I was growing up there, the local airlines - Aloha and Hawaiian - were treated almost like the city bus. They sold "commuter booklets" of coupons that let you fly between islands for about $30. People would fly in to Honolulu from the outer islands to shop on the weekends, or to attend a UH football game, or a rock concert. Now, both airlines are bleeding red ink, to the point that they tried to merge. (I believe it was blocked by anti-trust concerns.) A round trip tickets costs $200 or more. And they never run on time.
Peak oil is going to be brutal on Hawaii. The interisland airlines are being hit hard now, but the others will follow. Tourist destinations like Hawaii are the canaries in the coal mine, because leisure travel will be one of the first things people give up.
Inouye and Akaka, even though they are liberal Democrats, did not vote with their party - did not even consider it. Even though ANWR cannot possibly be a long-term solution. If ANWR gets them one or two more years of cheap airfares, it's worth it to them.
This attitude is why I'm so pessimistic about the post-peak world. People will be in denial until they're fighting over the last few candle stubs.