by Twilight » Thu 17 Jul 2008, 14:39:55
I loathe the "Man on the Moon" comparison.
A quick history lesson. America never put a man on the Moon "before this decade is out". It began to build the necessary human capital during the 1930s under Roosevelt. His attempt to deal with the Depression may have seen some questionable command allocation of resources, but it also saw a mass mobilisation of technical cadres and fired up a remarkably effective vocational education system. The Second World War then allowed a far greater number of people to become intimately acquainted with radar, communication and other electronic systems than would otherwise have been required by a peace-time and damaged economy - and they did it from first principles. The same was true of the humble yet remarkably accomplished machinist. The manner of their experience was also very formative. Untold thousands of soon-to-be experts lived a brief career in its own right on adrenaline, and their successors trained alongside.
The industrialisation of the USSR was fundamentally a similar story with nightmarish details. America and the USSR alike also got a boost from looting and reverse-engineering advanced technologies, created during the same period by a third party that experienced, once again, a similarly crisis-driven technical-managerial evolution. When Kennedy set that goal, those people and their machines were ready, and so was the working culture that would be required.
Today? How much of that is true of today?
I expect no technological miracles this side of the pond, and I expect none in the US. I expect no technological windfall to come with the fruits of war. There is not only no sense of urgency, there is hardly anyone who can remember a sense of urgency in their time. There is no grand objective to focus the mind, nor has there been one in living memory (at least, of those upon whose shoulders this task would be laid).
Our readiness today can be likened more to 1931 than to 1961. That's right, the man who might send us along the path has not even appeared yet. If Gore said 40 years, that would be closer to the truth. That is what the historical precedent he cites would actually suggest. Alas, he is perhaps too close to the story to see it in its entirety, beyond the triumphant myth.
It is a shame the momentum never held after 1973 and 1979, because seeing where we are now, that would have been the time to start. History lesson over.
In summary, the technical-managerial cadres, structures and culture necessary to address the coming energy crisis do not exist today. Sometime next decade, an economic collapse may provoke a late attempt to construct them. Until then, normal service resumes.