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Supercomputer salvation.

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Supercomputer salvation.

Unread postby orionis » Mon 18 Jun 2007, 00:14:59

Hey folks, i got a few questions for you.

As most of you may know there are medical programs out there that uses the computing powers of personal computers all over the world as an alternative to renting computing time with the mammoth computers to run calculations for their research.

It has had many results that would have otherwise been un-attainable without years of laborious calculations.
basically you download a program that lets the researchers use some of your cpu to run calculations. Multiply that by thousands of computers and you have an extremely powerfull tool.

So here is my questions:
Would it make a difference at all if public awareness was raised to the point where millions of computers worked around the clock on things like Nuclear fusion research and other alternative energies?

If by having such a program on your computer your goverment would give you an incentive to run it as much as possible would this not become mainstream and common in most households?
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Re: Supercomputer salvation.

Unread postby aldente » Mon 18 Jun 2007, 01:31:35

I don't think it's about calculation power but rather thinking 'an octave higher' as Victor Schauberger once remarked. Energy currently is generated through heat or at least heat involved as an obvious indicator or side effect. Caveman technology in other words, buring wood, coal, oil. Even splitting the atom in order to use the resulting 'heat' just to spin again the turbine blades. Fusion also is heat (the ultimate if you will) and falls in the same category. It is really a primitve approach when you look at it in detail.

Schauberger thought of implosion as the answer vs. explosion and all calculation power does not help if your vehicle is not directed in the right direction...

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Re: Supercomputer salvation.

Unread postby MonteQuest » Mon 18 Jun 2007, 01:51:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('orionis', ' ')So here is my questions:
Would it make a difference at all if public awareness was raised to the point where millions of computers worked around the clock on things like Nuclear fusion research and other alternative energies?


Sorry, there are no techno-fixes for our dilemma.
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Re: Supercomputer salvation.

Unread postby AndyK » Mon 18 Jun 2007, 06:38:43

If you have a suitable problem (i.e, a huge amount of data to be processed using simple known rules) for the distributed supercomputer to solve, sure it would help.

Are there any suitable problems in the realm of alternative energy research?
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Re: Supercomputer salvation.

Unread postby Madpaddy » Mon 18 Jun 2007, 06:46:51

Yes, everyone leaving their computers on 24/7 to help solve an energy crisis.

That's amusing to me I can tell you.

The fun thing about PO is that even if they sorted out the fusion problem today, to scale it up to a point where it replaced meaningful amounts of fossil fuel would take too long to avoid a crash.

I hope they get fusion sorted so my grandchildren and the rest of the human population of 400 million can enjoy a sustainable and ecologically sound 22nd century.
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Re: Supercomputer salvation.

Unread postby Dukat_Reloaded » Mon 18 Jun 2007, 07:31:11

Throwing more computer power at a problem will not solve a problem unless the problem is because of not enough computer power.
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Re: Supercomputer salvation.

Unread postby orionis » Mon 18 Jun 2007, 08:22:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('orionis', ' ')So here is my questions:
Would it make a difference at all if public awareness was raised to the point where millions of computers worked around the clock on things like Nuclear fusion research and other alternative energies?


Sorry, there are no techno-fixes for our dilemma.


The way i see it technology is the only thing that can save billions of people from starvation.
If an alternative method of transportation was discovered (anti gravity propulsion) for instance we could cut oil consumption by 70%, is that not true?

But in order to make that possible we need fusion.
an infinite amount of power generated from a miniscule amount of input.
Even a congressman on capitol hill agreed that if we discover fusion tech we would be home free.
sadly the same congressman said the odds of discovering fusion before the oil peak was like winning the lottery.

However if we were to increase spending in fusion tech from the pittance we spend today into a concentrated effort by many nations and the top scientists of today we could have a chance.
All we really need is for 1 scientist to look outside the box, test a theory that makes no sense and have a breakthrough.

Offcourse... the odds of that happening is increased the more money and effort we throw at this thing.
right now coca cola is spending more money on advertisment each year then goes to fusion research.
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Re: Supercomputer salvation.

Unread postby MonteQuest » Mon 18 Jun 2007, 10:49:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('orionis', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('orionis', ' ')So here is my questions:
Would it make a difference at all if public awareness was raised to the point where millions of computers worked around the clock on things like Nuclear fusion research and other alternative energies?


Sorry, there are no techno-fixes for our dilemma.


The way i see it technology is the only thing that can save billions of people from starvation.


Then I suggest you read my threads on population overshoot. The sequel to overshoot is always a die-off. Putting off that correction by develop[ing fusion will just make the crash that much more severe.

Are you that selfish and short-sighted?
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Re: Supercomputer salvation.

Unread postby azreal60 » Mon 18 Jun 2007, 11:13:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')re you that selfish and short-sighted?


Now now, he may simply be that unread. Heck, I don't even think I read each and every page on some of your threads monte. They tend to get a bit long and I only have so much time in a day for reading. And I'm a speed reader!

He sounds hopeful, which isn't bad.

To orionis, your hope isn't a bad thing, but you have to hope for the right things.

I would disagree with some of the posters on this site that population reduction has to happen from either starvation or war or some other un palitable situation. Population reduction can happen without starvation with a simple reduction in the amount of food available. If you reduce the food, any animal, including humans, reduces the amount of children it has. The horrible starvation in africa? Largely because we spent years sending in "relief" which basically said to africans " breed as much as you want".
We have this belief we are outside the natural boundries. Well, that works both for us and against us. It works against us by causing overshoot. But it works for us if we simply reduce the amount of food available, people WILL stop breeding( until they reach a steady state with there environ's. This works all the way from bacteria to humans). This has been proven in a scientific study that I honestly can't call to mind what it was called, but it was quoted in the Ishmael book series by Daniel Quinn. Quinn's pretty good with bibliography, so I'm sure you could find it if you wanted.
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Re: Supercomputer salvation.

Unread postby MonteQuest » Mon 18 Jun 2007, 11:38:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('azreal60', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')re you that selfish and short-sighted?


Now now, he may simply be that unread.


Or that programmed to believe "there are no limits."

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')ut it works for us if we simply reduce the amount of food available, people WILL stop breeding( until they reach a steady state with there environ's.


Over time. Over decades. In the meantime, the population will continue to grow due to demographics.

ZPG (a couple replaces themselves), intitated today, would not show a decline for 50 to 70 years.

A one-child policy would reach ZPG in 25 years.

Then, the decline would start.

How long would it take to reduce the population to a sustainable number of 2 to 3 billion by limiting food?

Decades.

We don't have decades.

Mother Nature is not like a creditor; you cannot put off payment.

She will foreclose.
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Re: Supercomputer salvation.

Unread postby azreal60 » Mon 18 Jun 2007, 11:49:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')ow long would it take to reduce the population to a sustainable number of 2 to 3 billion by limiting food


I have no idea. The question is, how long compared to how long we can keep up the level of food nessesary to keep the population from starving. Like demand and supply, it would only be a problem when there is a demand that is need based that can't be fullfilled. Only then would starvation happen.

As for how long it will take, I don't pretend I know. I'm not saying you are, but I surely can't make that prediction.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A') one-child policy would reach ZPG in 25 years


Doesn't china already have this? Aren't we always twitting them about how barbaric it is?

And again, I'm not saying people won't starve, ever. In fact, I can almost gaurentee they will. I'm just saying the vast majority of our population reduction need not happen from starvation.
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Re: Supercomputer salvation.

Unread postby MonteQuest » Mon 18 Jun 2007, 12:44:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('azreal60', ' ')
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A') one-child policy would reach ZPG in 25 years


Doesn't china already have this? Aren't we always twitting them about how barbaric it is?


Yes, there growth rate is .59%, well below replacement, yet they are projected to add another 200 million people to their population due to demographics. And I think this illustrates my point in spades...even a draconian barbaric approach isn't enough.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')nd again, I'm not saying people won't starve, ever. In fact, I can almost gaurentee they will. I'm just saying the vast majority of our population reduction need not happen from starvation.


Ah, but as I have been drumming into people's heads, carrying capacity isn't just about food, and a die-off is precipitated by disease, not starvation. Thus even the rich, healthy and well-fed are taken as pandemic disease sweeps the population.

That is why there is so much concern over things like the Bird-flu pandemic.

However, we are not bacteria, so how this will play out remains to be seen...we have Easter Island, the Anasazi, and the Norsemen as good examples.
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Re: Supercomputer salvation.

Unread postby orionis » Mon 18 Jun 2007, 17:47:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('orionis', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('orionis', ' ')So here is my questions:
Would it make a difference at all if public awareness was raised to the point where millions of computers worked around the clock on things like Nuclear fusion research and other alternative energies?


Sorry, there are no techno-fixes for our dilemma.


The way i see it technology is the only thing that can save billions of people from starvation.


Then I suggest you read my threads on population overshoot. The sequel to overshoot is always a die-off. Putting off that correction by develop[ing fusion will just make the crash that much more severe.

Are you that selfish and short-sighted?


Are you a prophet?
If we developed fusion we would make the crash worse?...
That just sounds extremely arrogant to me.

Oil spurred on thousands of tech breakthroughs in a short amount of time.
Give me 1 reason that the development of limitless free energy would not do the same.
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Re: Supercomputer salvation.

Unread postby MonteQuest » Mon 18 Jun 2007, 18:03:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('orionis', ' ')Are you a prophet?
If we developed fusion we would make the crash worse?...
That just sounds extremely arrogant to me.

Oil spurred on thousands of tech breakthroughs in a short amount of time.
Give me 1 reason that the development of limitless free energy would not do the same.


No, I am an ecologist. There is no techno-fix for population overshoot. We have exceeded the carrying capacity of the earth. There will be a correction. Denying that correction through fusion will allow us to overshoot even more...making the envitable population crash even more severe.

To assume we are above nature and that technology can deny nature her checks and balances is the epitome of hubris. The exponentiality of the technological fix is a one-way ticket to disaster for life and for the planet.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Montequest', 'T')o me, given our current cultural mindset, the worse thing that could happen would be to find some inexhaustible new source of energy. We would doom the human race to extinction by making the planet uninhabitable through our wanton consumption. Now if we developed fusion and also reverted back to the population of the mid-1800's, did away with the "throw-away" society, recycled and downsized everything, instituted de-centralization, embraced environmental constraints, and generally practiced a conservation ethic, then that would be a good start—even in an entropy world where it all ends anyway.
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Re: Supercomputer salvation.

Unread postby Ingenuity_Gap » Mon 18 Jun 2007, 19:25:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('orionis', 'H')ey folks, i got a few questions for you.

As most of you may know there are medical programs out there that uses the computing powers of personal computers all over the world as an alternative to renting computing time with the mammoth computers to run calculations for their research.

It has had many results that would have otherwise been un-attainable without years of laborious calculations.
basically you download a program that lets the researchers use some of your cpu to run calculations. Multiply that by thousands of computers and you have an extremely powerfull tool.

So here is my questions:
Would it make a difference at all if public awareness was raised to the point where millions of computers worked around the clock on things like Nuclear fusion research and other alternative energies?

If by having such a program on your computer your goverment would give you an incentive to run it as much as possible would this not become mainstream and common in most households?


To get the response you desire, you need to ask the right question.

You ask about alternative energy (nuclear fusion included). To what end? To do what? Why do we need so much energy?

A good step in the right direction would be to ask: what is wrong with this picture (mankind in the 21st century)? Why are so many on this site worried about the future?

Our inability to see the connection between phenomena is our main disadvantage. You have to realize that energy is connected to population levels, resource depletion and pollution.

Remember the IPAT equation?

Impact on environment = Population x Affluence x Technology

If you increase the available energy (to avoid a short term economic and population crash) you create the perfect ground for more population increase, worsening the resource depletion and accelerating the pollution. After you develop nuclear fusion and the population reaches 10 billion, you will need an even more exotic type of energy to sustain that population.

Even if the population stays constant, everybody wants to live the American dream, have a car, a house, a good job. Now imagine 1 billion Chinese (already on the march) attaining the affluence levels of North Americans. Then 1 billion Indians and so on. Do you really think that this Earth can sustain so many prosperous people? We would soon choke in our own feces.

There are limits and energy availability is but one of them.

Our technological approach is wrong. Technology has side-effects; always. What we do is try to fix those old side-effects with new technology. In the meantime we greatly increase the complexity of our society at all levels. We are reactive instead of being proactive.

Our financial, economic and business model based on growth is generating all the problems.

Our mindset needs to change.

I, for one, don't think that is possible. We are still mammals. We are bound to growth by our reproductive instincts. We are different from other mammals because we created a society, economy, technology. Unfortunately everything we create is based on growth. If this Earth would be infinite, it could work. But it’s not.
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Re: Supercomputer salvation.

Unread postby Madpaddy » Mon 18 Jun 2007, 19:37:45

And the problem is, even if you get a group of like minded people together and live a low impact lifestyle, TPTB won't leave you alone.
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Re: Supercomputer salvation.

Unread postby MonteQuest » Mon 18 Jun 2007, 20:20:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ingenuity_Gap', ' ')Our mindset needs to change.


Oh, such a very good post! Kudos!
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Re: Supercomputer salvation.

Unread postby orionis » Mon 18 Jun 2007, 20:39:26

So humanity is a curse, even if we manage through this crisis we will spread through the solar system like a virus.
Stripmining the asteroids, pollute mars and ruin the solar system like a virus taking over a cell.

After that if we find a way to spread to new solar systems the universe is screwed.

If the universe was a body we would be the cancer eating away at it.
That is pretty much the picture you guys are drawing... its rather depressing.

Oil peak is a problem of epic proportions but it must have a solution that we can overcome.
BUT! if you take every problem mankind has and pin it on oil peak we are not going to get anywhere.

Humanity has made it this far in a relatively short time.
If we can somehow make it through the oil peak we can make it through the rest.

There will be suffering and death if nothing is done to prevent it and trying to solve all our problems at once is simply TOO MUCH!
focus one 1 problem, solve it and move on to the next.
It is the formula we have gotten here on.
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Re: Supercomputer salvation.

Unread postby cube » Mon 18 Jun 2007, 21:06:14

Contrary to popular belief computers do NOT solve problems, but instead allow you to perform a repetitive task very quickly. 8)
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Re: Supercomputer salvation.

Unread postby MonteQuest » Mon 18 Jun 2007, 21:06:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('orionis', ' ')Oil peak is a problem of epic proportions but it must have a solution that we can overcome.
BUT! if you take every problem mankind has and pin it on oil peak we are not going to get anywhere.

Humanity has made it this far in a relatively short time.
If we can somehow make it through the oil peak we can make it through the rest.


What? We can elevate ourselves above nature?

Humanity made it this far (the last 150 years) on a phantom source of energy that is going away. It allowed us to expand our population to unsustainable levels.

We have overshot the carrying capacity of the earth, even if oil never runs out. There will be a die-off whether or not oil ever peaks.

Such is the will of nature when a species goes into overshoot.

We need to learn to cope and adapt to the correction that is coming, not try to find ways to avoid it and exacerbate the crash.

You are in the minority, as you will see from the poll at this thread:

Peak Oil: The Tip of the Iceberg
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