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Streetcars - the true end of suburbia begins

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General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.
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Re: Streetcars - the true end of suburbia begins

Postby cube » Thu 28 Aug 2008, 08:32:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', 'I')s your question truly *sincere*?

Yes, I backed off in order to give you a chance to state your case.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', 'P')erhaps I should turn the question around and ask, why do you think "city planning" (in particular transportation) will help us....if that is your position? 8)

It seems obvious to me. Even if we didn't have peak oil, public transportation would be necessary just to ease traffic problems, limited parking spaces, and smog. So I find it very difficult to make a compelling case that public transportation has no reason to exist.
mos6507 I'm giving up on you man. I believe you have reached a point where it is impossible for me to get a useful discussion out of you.
good bye.
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Re: The true end of suburbia begins

Postby cube » Thu 28 Aug 2008, 10:21:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('CarlosFerreira', '[')b]And, because of the credit crunch, money may not be readily available to buy a car.

I don't think suburbia will collapse because Americans couldn't afford to buy a car. I think suburbia will collapse because people couldn't afford to buy a house! :lol:

Home ownership is a major selling point of suburbia. Home ownership and suburbia are tied at the hip. You cannot separate the two. If Americans couldn't "own" their home then nobody would care to live all the way out in suburbia.
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Re: Streetcars - the true end of suburbia begins

Postby mos6507 » Thu 28 Aug 2008, 10:53:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', 'I') believe you have reached a point where it is impossible for me to get a useful discussion out of you.

You are the one who evaded my question and "turned the question around", which I answered. Not liking the message and putting someone on ignore is cowardly.
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Re: The true end of suburbia begins

Postby CarlosFerreira » Thu 28 Aug 2008, 11:57:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', 'I') don't think suburbia will collapse because Americans couldn't afford to buy a car. I think suburbia will collapse because people couldn't afford to buy a house! Home ownership is a major selling point of suburbia. Home ownership and suburbia are tied at the hip. You cannot separate the two. If Americans couldn't "own" their home then nobody would care to live all the way out in suburbia.

We disagree. Houses, like everything else, don't have fixed prices. Their price is decided by the market. All the present problems are that houses' value is dropping, which makes sellers achieve a smaller (or negative) ROI. Suburbia houses were extremely valued, for all (and more) reasons discussed here; now their value to the eyes of the consumer is dropping, because buying a house in the suburbs is seen as expensive when gas prices increase - meaning the reason why people can't afford living in the suburbs is the car (transportation) cost, not the house price itself.

You're a free market advocate; you understand that prices are a function of perceived value. That's why the price of old houses in cities are rocketing. If people perceive they can create value in the suburbs, like having jobs there (re-read the text from The Economist I posted yesterday), or having an affordable transportation to the place where value is created (jobs), they will prefer the suburbs, where there's more room.

It all sounds like there's lots of moral judgement of the suburbs, seen as a root of evil.

cube, please cool it. You've "dismissed" 3 people already in this thread. That is alienating behaviour, and it tends to produce conflict, not the healthy discussion a thread like this one can provide.
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Re: The true end of suburbia begins

Postby Javaman » Thu 28 Aug 2008, 21:12:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Javaman', 'S')uburbs are more affordable than close-in neighborhoods. The taxes are lower too. A house in the burbs is often 25-50% the cost of a similar sized house in the city. It might be newer and more energy-efficient.
I agree.
However I think there will come a "turning point" in the near future.
"near future" meaning within my lifetime.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Javaman', 'T')he difference in price might amount to several hundred thousand dollars. That will easily buy a durable, fuel-efficient car and a lot of fuel, maybe 20 to 30 years worth at $15 per gallon, assuming 40 mpg and 10,000 miles of commuting per year.
If this was simply a matter of the cost of fuel then I would agree with you totally. In fact when I first came onto this site I had the exact same opinion as yours. The numbers seem simple enough at first glance, just buy a $10K car that gets 50mpg.....hell anybody can afford that even at $15 / gallon gasoline right??? however..... There are more expenses here then just the cost of fuel. I think people underestimate how expensive infrastructure truly costs. Not to sound insulting but people have NO IDEA. Absolutely NO IDEA. The reason of course is because infrastructure is subsidized so you never really see the "true" cost.

These "subsidies" apply to the cities as well; where are the taxes going? Of course one really large subsidy is that for public transit. Those "cheap" transit fares would be several times higher if not for subsidies. If public transit, as currently practiced, were really all that energy-efficient, it wouldn't need any subsidies, would it?
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'a')nd of course there's also the issue of cheap credit which everybody seems to agree will go the way of the dodo bird post peak.
IMHO the end of cheap credit will pull the plug on suburbia faster then expensive fuel. Imagine walking into a bank and saying you want to buy a house.
and they reply, "okay fine put a 50% down payment and pay off the loan in 10 years."

If cheap credit disappears, it will be as difficult to buy a house in the city as in the suburbs, if not more so, given the prices.
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Re: The true end of suburbia begins

Postby cube » Thu 28 Aug 2008, 23:58:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('CarlosFerreira', 'Y')ou're a free market advocate; you understand that prices are a function of perceived value.
ahh yes I guess I do have quite a reputation for being a supporter of the free market! Why do people buy $200 basket ball shoes just because it has Michael Jordan's name on it? The free market explains why. I think you've just answered the question already --> "perceived value".

Getting back to suburbia: We have to remember that "suburbia" can be loosely defined as anything 10 miles or 50 miles away from the urban core. I think that's why there has been so much miscommunication here. The same word can mean 2 different things. There's a big difference between 10 miles and 50. In this case I mean the far edge. 40 to 50 miles. It is the edge that will collapse first.

Home ownership means a lot to people....much like how having Michael Jordan's name printed on their shoes can mean a lot to some other people. This is why people are willing to go through such extreme lengths to acquire something. It's psychological.
The only reason why a person would commute 40 miles (each way) and waste 3 hours of their life everyday driving is because they get to "own" their home.
NOBODY would rent a home or apartment and drive that distance.
If society had to rent then we'd all be living no further then 20 miles away from work regardless of how small the apartment unit is. This is why I think the end of cheap credit (aka home ownership) would basically collapse suburbia.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('CarlosFerreira', 'I') posted yesterday), or having an affordable transportation to the place where value is created (jobs), they will prefer the suburbs, where there's more room.
I do not expect the entire world to die-off by tomorrow morning so yes there will be many areas where "suburbia" still exists even 50 years from now. However the trend is clear. Suburbia is contracting one home foreclosure at a time.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('CarlosFerreira', 'I')t all sounds like there's lots of moral judgement of the suburbs, seen as a root of evil.
I do not have any moral judgements against suburbia or against anything. I am NOT a "liberal". I don't care what people do with their lives: (drive a car or take the bus), I see this purely as an economic function. Why do people think I am some type of extremist because I believe life would change drastically if the cost of energy were to rise significantly? :?
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('CarlosFerreira', 'c')ube, please cool it. You've "dismissed" 3 people already in this thread. That is alienating behaviour, and it tends to produce conflict, not the healthy discussion a thread like this one can provide.
well actually I've only dismissed 2 people :wink:
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Re: The true end of suburbia begins

Postby cube » Fri 29 Aug 2008, 00:00:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Javaman', 'I')f cheap credit disappears, it will be as difficult to buy a house in the city as in the suburbs, if not more so, given the prices.
Rent
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Re: Streetcars - the true end of suburbia begins

Postby cube » Fri 29 Aug 2008, 02:51:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '.').. You are the one who evaded my question and "turned the question around", which I answered. Not liking the message and putting someone on ignore is cowardly.
alright alright I'll give you a 2nd chance. shessh keep your shirt on.

Why I have "issues" with urban planning:
For example if I open up a restaurant and start cooking up food that people don't want to eat then I will have to shut down my store and sell it for a loss.
In a normal business environment, an investor eats his own loss for making bad decisions.

The problem with urban planning is bureaucrats do NOT have to eat their own loss. They can be as reckless with the taxpayers money to their heart's desire. If they anticipate a future demand and overbuild a system let it be a freeway or subway and nobody shows up once the project is complete what do they have to lose? --> nothing, no pain, no loss.
It's the taxpayers that end up getting the shaft for these ridiculous "bridges to nowhere" or "empty trains" project. If you are curious, this is not a rare situation. It happens ALL the time.

It disturbs me greatly why so many people believe that if they hand their tax dollars over to a bureaucrat the government will magically make the world's problems would go away.
The absolute worst transportation program would be to let the government anticipate a future demand and "plan" ahead.
I can probably list half a dozen other points but I'll keep it short.
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Re: Streetcars - the true end of suburbia begins

Postby malcomatic_51 » Fri 29 Aug 2008, 03:12:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', 'T')he problem with urban planning is bureaucrats do NOT have to eat their own loss. They can be as reckless with the taxpayers money to their heart's desire. It's the taxpayers that end up getting the shaft for these ridiculous "bridges to nowhere" or "empty trains" project.
It disturbs me greatly why so many people believe that if they hand their tax dollars over to a bureaucrat the government will magically make the world's problems would go away.

Public bureaucracy is rarely more than the organisation of irresponsibility. You can get exceptions, like NASA of the Apollo programme. By and large though, government bureaucats are mediocre folk who couldn't leave school and face the big wide world so they found a new school. I work in a large utility bureaucracy - similar to public bureaucracy but it is held accountable through regulation, standards of service and having to turn in a profit. Even despite that, I am disgusted by the conniving, smug hypocrisy of the slime-bags who are successful in the organisation.

It's not as if private companies are so angelic though. Any human organisation will to some extent be corrupted by putting its collective interest above any outside interest - in as much as it can get away with it. Hence companies will pollute as much as they can get away with. If they get pulled up for it, they shine themselves up and posture as "green".
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Re: The true end of suburbia begins

Postby Javaman » Fri 29 Aug 2008, 06:37:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Javaman', 'I')f cheap credit disappears, it will be as difficult to buy a house in the city as in the suburbs, if not more so, given the prices.
Rent

Hey, great idea... give all of your housing money to a landlord, make him rich. And at the end of 15 to 30 years you are still... paying rent!

Rents tend to increase over time. Fixed rate mortgages don't. There is still the problem of ever increasing property taxes, but these are much lower outside of cities.
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Re: The true end of suburbia begins

Postby vtsnowedin » Fri 29 Aug 2008, 07:17:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Javaman', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Javaman', 'I')f cheap credit disappears, it will be as difficult to buy a house in the city as in the suburbs, if not more so, given the prices.
Rent
Hey, great idea. give all of your housing money to a landlord, make him rich. And at the end of 15 to 30 years you are still paying rent! Rents tend to increase over time. Fixed rate mortgages don't. There is still the problem of ever increasing property taxes, but these are much lower outside of cities.

What are you talking about?? Or better yet where is this low tax suburb? Not having any industry and very little retail stores the per capita property taxes raised in both rural and suburban areas are higher than the city not lower.
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Re: The true end of suburbia begins

Postby emersonbiggins » Fri 29 Aug 2008, 10:47:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Javaman', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Javaman', 'I')f cheap credit disappears, it will be as difficult to buy a house in the city as in the suburbs, if not more so, given the prices.
Rent
Hey, great idea... give all of your housing money to a landlord, make him rich. And at the end of 15 to 30 years you are still... paying rent!

Renting = service, like paying the utility company for 10 years and having nothing to show for it. Do you complain about this as well?

Renting provides flexibility in this market, especially, where buying without some skin in the game all but ensures a negative equity position for months (years?) to come. In a bear market with a shrinking tax base, owning a home will become a losing proposition.
"It's called the American Dream because you'd have to be asleep to believe it."

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Re: The true end of suburbia begins

Postby mos6507 » Fri 29 Aug 2008, 10:56:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', 'W')hat are you talking about?? Or better yet where is this low tax suburb? Not having any industry and very little retail stores the per capita property taxes raised in both rural and suburban areas are higher than the city not lower.

We'd all like to get a house in a peaceful area that's cheap to buy with low cost of living and maintain a job with a high salary. Some things are just mutually exclusive and always will be. Make your compromise.

Some people in other parts of the world have far fewer options in life than the average american so it's not that bad, really.
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Re: The true end of suburbia begins

Postby EnergyUnlimited » Fri 29 Aug 2008, 11:48:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('emersonbiggins', 'I')n a bear market with a shrinking tax base, owning a home will become a losing proposition.

So what will happen, once everyone want to rent and no one want to own that damn property?

What if all owners are trying to sell their property (presumably for the purpose of renting this or another property later) and no one want to buy it because it doesn't pay to own a property? 8O
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Re: The true end of suburbia begins

Postby emersonbiggins » Fri 29 Aug 2008, 12:04:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('emersonbiggins', 'I')n a bear market with a shrinking tax base, owning a home will become a losing proposition.
So what will happen, once everyone want to rent and no one want to own that damn property? What if all owners are trying to sell their property (presumably for the purpose of renting this or another property later) and no one want to buy it because it doesn't pay to own a property?

Next stop Squattersville.
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Re: Streetcars - the true end of suburbia begins

Postby MarkJ » Fri 29 Aug 2008, 12:26:28

I've had to raise rents on my city apartment buildings substantially due to high property taxes, high water/sewer rates, garbage collection and the cost of city code enforcement compliance. I pay higher taxes on an 80 year old 6-unit city apartment building than I pay for a much larger 25 year old 10 unit apartment building minutes outside the cities on 24 acres.

Not only are my taxes higher in the cities, but I receive fewer services. For example, I just had a problem with the sewer line at one of my suburban rental properties. The town ran a new sewer line, installed a new water line, installed a new shut-off valve and replaced a section sidewalk free of charge. In the city, I'm responsible for the cost of everything from the curb to the house. I also have more frequent (free) trash collection and the town will pick up leaves, brush, timber and light construction debris free of charge. In the city, they'd laugh at a non owner occupied landlord asking for free favors or services. City officials also tend to be a$$holes in comparison to officials in town, village, suburban and rural areas.

Property taxes are regional in nature, but property taxes outside many local cities are lower since they have massive residential, commercial, industrial and tourism related tax base growth. Cities don't have large tracts of undeveloped or underdeveloped acreage, wooded land and farmland necessary for construction or expansion of roads, parking, custom homes, vacation homes, housing developments, malls, shopping centers, commercial businesses, industrial parks, tourist attractions etc.

One local homeowner with a 60,000 sq/ft home pays more property taxes than 150 city homeowners or (XXX?) city apartment dwellers some regions.
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Re: Streetcars - the true end of suburbia begins

Postby Denny » Fri 29 Aug 2008, 16:10:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MarkJ', 'O')ne local homeowner with a 60,000 sq/ft home pays more property taxes than 150 city homeowners or (XXX?) city apartment dwellers some regions.

60,000 square foot home? I think you must mean palace!
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Re: The true end of suburbia begins

Postby cube » Sat 30 Aug 2008, 00:37:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Javaman', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Javaman', 'I')f cheap credit disappears, it will be as difficult to buy a house in the city as in the suburbs, if not more so, given the prices.
Rent
Hey, great idea... give all of your housing money to a landlord, make him rich. And at the end of 15 to 30 years you are still... paying rent! Rents tend to increase over time. Fixed rate mortgages don't. There is still the problem of ever increasing property taxes, but these are much lower outside of cities.
okay this is the crap that I'm getting really tired of.
This is the stuff that made me almost want to ignore mos6507.
You are NOT making a logical argument.
You're acting like mos6507 by essentially saying:
1) I don't like this.
2) I don't want this.
3) This sucks.
YOU are not explaining why you think such a scenario will or will not happen.

cube says: PO == the end of cheap credit
the end of cheap credit == a severe drop in home ownership
a drop in home ownership == a greater % of society renting

Do you or do you not agree with that logic and if not then explain to me why you think cheap credit will exist in a post PO world.
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Re: The true end of suburbia begins

Postby vtsnowedin » Sat 30 Aug 2008, 05:38:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cubecube', ' ')says: PO = the end of cheap credit
the end of cheap credit = a severe drop in home ownership
a drop in home ownership = a greater % of society renting

I don't want to carry the water for another debater but I thought I'd toy with this a bit IYDM:
1. PO= the end of cheap credit? Probably
2. The end of cheap credit= A major drop in home prices not ownership. Perhaps prices will drop 70% or more.
3. PO = much higher commuting costs= people moving to homes within walking distance of work=A major shuffling of who lives where.= people owning a home they are trying to rent out to reduce expences while they rent an apartment or home close to work. = A lot of people renting for a while while they sort things out.
4. PO = the end of houses owned as status symbols. Average size will reduce back to 1200s.f. People will only build or rent what they need and can afford to heat and maintain. Mc mansions will get remodeled, cut into sub units or have some use made of the excess space. This means we are way overbuilt and will not need any new square footage in total for years.

As we have already seen rising energy prices drop the value of homes that are at the far reaches of suburbs but at the same time can raise the value of homes that are close in and have access to public transport. This is due to the following:;
The true cost of a home is the sum of : principle+interest+points+property taxes+utilities+commuting costs+maintenance+ fees.
Increases in any catagory other then principal reduce the amount of principle the buyer can afford.
Every renter can expect to pay the full costs of the space he rents plus a profit to the landlord to cover the risk the landlord has taken. because of this renting is always more expensive than owning on a square foot basis but people usually rent much smaller spaces than they would chose to buy outright leaving the impression that renting is cheaper.
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Re: The true end of suburbia begins

Postby ReverseEngineer » Sat 30 Aug 2008, 06:03:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('emersonbiggins', 'N')ext stop Squattersville.

Clearly the future of "Home Ownership".
Who owns the properties being foreclosed on as we speak? Some Bank, which sold the mortgage as a security to some Hedge Fund which has gone Belly Up which the Bankrupt US Government can't afford to bail out.

Who owns these houses? Whoever moves into them and can hold onto them!

Most of the suburban properties are unlivable in the peak oil scenario, so NOBODY lives in them. They get scavenged for parts.

Moving inward toward the cities, can you please tell me HOW a landlord is going to "collect rent" from unemployed tenants of the building, or who he will call to evict them for unpaid rent? He is going to show up himself in a St Louis neighborhood with a shotgun and try to collect the rent from the tenants? What?

NOBODY owns these properties anymore, although people THINK they do and at least currently some of the residents still buy in to the system and actually move out when they can't pay the rent or meet the mortgage. However, its rapidly becoming a SEA of people who are in this situation, and now of course the Government has delayed foreclosure on properties to nearly a year of unpaid bills. Why? Not because they feel sorry for the homeless people that are the outcome, simply because they can't possibly enforce the evictions!

There is a violation fo the social contract here, and if too many Marshalls show up at too many properties and force families out onto the streets, locally speaking the people will rebel. As was the case in the Great Depression, you will have local militias standing against local police forces, just this time around the police forces won't be funded EITHER. Most of those cops are just as likely to be the victims of this fiasco as anybody else.

There just is no way here to maintain the illusion of Property Ownership in the aftermath of Peak Oil. Its going to be a free for all, and whoever can take contorl of a property and hold it then will "own" it, at least until somebody else takes him out and takes control of it.
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