[vtsnowedin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', ' ')You are a bit cynical you know.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dashster', ' ')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'T')hat is the epitome of a lack of "critical thinking."

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', 'B')ut look on the bright side, because there are so many idea arrows in the quiver we have so far delayed world terminal decline for 6-9 years depending on where you place conventional peak. BAU has managed to stumble along years past where I thought it would end.

[MonteQuest]

I took a look back at the World Energy Outlook for 2006.

"Globally, fossil fuels will remain the dominant source of energy to 2030 in both scenarios. In the Reference Scenario, they account for 83% of the overall increase in energy demand between 2004 and 2030. As a result, their share of world demand edges up, from 80% to 81%."

It's now 87%.

"Primary oil demand grows by 1.3% per year over 2005-2030 in the Reference Scenario, reaching 99 mb/d in 2015 and 116 mb/d in 2030 –up from 84 mb/d in 2005."-EIA

Today it is 91.3 mbpd.

"The global demand forecast was revised downward by 0.2 million bbl/d to average 92.5 million bbl/d in 2015, based on weaker global economic growth prospects for next year."-EIA

That's 6.5 mbpd less in 2015

"The IEA crude oil import price is assumed to average slightly over $60 per barrel (in real year-2005 dollars) through 2007 – up from $51 in 2005 –and then decline to about $47 by 2012. It is assumed to rise again slowly
thereafter, reaching $55 in 2030.'-EIA

It rose to $147/barrel, hovered over $100, then declined to $80.

"Other renewable energy technologies, including wind, solar, geothermal, wave and tidal energy, see the fastest increase in demand, but their share of total energy use still reaches only 1.7% in 2030 – up from 0.5% today.-EIA

Today, they are at 1.2%. That's the only projection on track.

[toolpush]

MonteQuest,

If you plug in $147 and $100 into those 2006 formulas, what would the consumption be then? The IEA may not have been that far off the mark, they just used the wrong price assumptions.
Garbage in garbage out, as they say.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('toolpush', 'M')onteQuest,

If you plug in $147 and $100 into those 2006 formulas, what would the consumption be then? The IEA may not have been that far off the mark, they just used the wrong price assumptions.
Garbage in garbage out, as they say.

[toolpush]

MonteQuest,

I feel I am being spun in circles.
Why did the price rise in the first place? Depletion of old fields and lack of new finds at $30 per barrel, so the price went up. The first reaction, decrease in economic activity, and drop in demand. Longer term, people found ways to use less oil, by efficiency or substitution, and new supply can on line.
Now that is the picture of what has happened in the oilfield. What has happened in the financial world I will leave to others, but junks bonds to drill shale oil? I fell will have a fall out very soon, those wells will have their steep decline, demand will increase to due to cheaper fuel, and the price will spike again. They call it the boom, bust cycle.
And we continue to go around in circles?

[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', 'B')ut look on the bright side, because there are so many idea arrows in the quiver we have so far delayed world terminal decline for 6-9 years depending on where you place conventional peak. BAU has managed to stumble along years past where I thought it would end.

[dashster]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dashster', ' ')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'T')hat is the epitome of a lack of "critical thinking."

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('toolpush', ' ')The first reaction, decrease in economic activity, and drop in demand. Longer term, people found ways to use less oil, by efficiency or substitution, and new supply can on line.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dashster', ' ')The point being, I argued against your statement. That is what a forum is for.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', ' ')I am predicting he was eight months too optimistic and Bakken peaked in November or December 2014 because at these prices drilling is going to collapse. The oil that is still there could still be drilled, especially in the sweet spots that have been identified, but between the massive depletion rate and the slow down in drilling rate the peak is here now.

[MonteQuest]

While corn to ethanol and soybeans to biodiesel occurs here in the US, rapeseed oil, soy oil and palm oil are growing worldwide, displacing forests and farmland that grow food. An EU study showed that rapeseed oil, palm oil and soy oil are the three biofuels that produce more greenhouse gas emissions than fossil fuels once emissions from indirect land use change are taken into account.

[dashster]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dashster', ' ')The point being, I argued against your statement. That is what a forum is for.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dashster', 'I') don't think you have given it much thought.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'I') think there is going to be a lot of eyes watching the drill rig count on the fracking wells.

[dashster]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dashster', 'I') don't think you have given it much thought.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dashster', 'G')ive me what you estimate is the cost to build track.

[DesuMaiden]

I think the only real solutions will arise from addressing the demand rather than the supply side of things. We need to reduce petroleum consumption around the world. There is no way in hell any biofuels will replace liquid petroleum at the rate we are consuming petroleum. Even if you were to convert all of the corn grown in the USA into ethanol, you would still only be able to satisfy only 12% of USA's liquid fuels demand. There really isn't anything that can replace the 90 million barrels a day of global oil consumption...the only solution is to gradually decrease our consumption of petroleum, so that we might able to find a substitute for it. If we can't find a substitute for petroleum, I guess that means we need to go back to hard manual labor for agriculture again rather than having machines do all of the work for us.