by Keith_McClary » Mon 13 Jan 2014, 01:15:01
Ran across this in my random surfing:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'K')leiner's Law
Every organization always operates on behalf of the perceived needs and priorities of some core group of key people. This purpose will trump every other organizational loyalty, including those to shareholders, employees, customers, and other constituents.
http://www.edge.org/q2004/page2.htmlMany other gems from this site, such as:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'D')ehaene's First Law
Every successful human invention such as arithmetic or the alphabet has a "neuronal niche"—a set of cerebral processors that evolved for a distinct purpose, but can be recycled to implement the new function.
Two corollaries:
The difficulty of learning a new concept or technique is directly related to the amount of recycling needed—the distance between the evolutionary older function and the new one.
When the old and the new functions are closely related (isomorphic), an evolutionary old cerebral processor can provide a fast, unconscious and unexpected solution to a recent cultural problem—this is what we call "intuition".
http://www.edge.org/q2004/page6.html Could this be why people don't "get" peak oil (or AGW)?
Facebook knows you're a dog.
by Tanada » Mon 13 Jan 2014, 07:09:06
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Keith_McClary', 'R')an across this in my random surfing:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'K')leiner's Law
Every organization always operates on behalf of the perceived needs and priorities of some core group of key people. This purpose will trump every other organizational loyalty, including those to shareholders, employees, customers, and other constituents.
http://www.edge.org/q2004/page2.htmlMany other gems from this site, such as:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'D')ehaene's First Law
Every successful human invention such as arithmetic or the alphabet has a "neuronal niche"—a set of cerebral processors that evolved for a distinct purpose, but can be recycled to implement the new function.
Two corollaries:
The difficulty of learning a new concept or technique is directly related to the amount of recycling needed—the distance between the evolutionary older function and the new one.
When the old and the new functions are closely related (isomorphic), an evolutionary old cerebral processor can provide a fast, unconscious and unexpected solution to a recent cultural problem—this is what we call "intuition".
http://www.edge.org/q2004/page6.html Could this be why people don't "get" peak oil (or AGW)?
As a general rule the perceived needs of that core group can be anything. If the core group places their sense of value of self worth in having the happiest customers base then they will place Customer Service as their core value, if on the other hand they place self worth on being financially efficient then they will cut costs and seek to reduce expenses to the greatest extent possible. It is even true of volunteer organizations, if your local Red Cross places their sense of self worth in recognition for helping the community in times of disaster that is where they will place all their efforts, if your local charity is the Salvation Army chapter or the Homeless Shelter their focus will be on serving the spiritual and or physical needs of the less fortunate.
As for the Alphabet and Arithmetic, both are outgrowths of symbolic logic i.e. language. Language is what sets our species apart from other species because it gives us the ability to pass education to others without direct training being involved. What I mean is, you can read a book on how to fix a leaking piece of plumbing under your sink and likely fix the leak if you are able to understand what you read and have the necessary tools. If humans had no language then you would have to be shown how to do the repair by someone skilled in the repair, and to pass that knowledge on to your friends or relatives you would have to show them how you made the repair for them to learn it themselves.
Peak Oil and AGW are really both cases of hitting limits, in the former it is the limit to how fast Petroleum energy can be produced and consumed by our species, in the latter case it is how much CO2 or other greenhouse gasses our planet can absorb without undergoing significant climate effects. Limits are an abstract concept, they have to be learned by experience. If you are given four apples by your neighbor every week all autumn you grow to expect their to always be four apples available, but once the apple season has passed and the varied cultivars of Apples are no longer baring the supply stops. Repetition of the cycle will teach you that Apples are available in the Autumn, and keep through the Winter for a few weeks, but are not available in the Spring or Summer. Then abundant fossil fuels come along and provide rapid transport of Apples from far away places where the seasons are different than they are where you live and suddenly you can get apples, fresh crunchy sweet apples, in Spring and Summer. You become conditioned to the idea that Apples are always available, that there is no limit to when you can have an fresh juicy Apple.
The problem is the limit still exists, but now instead of natural seasons the limit is how much fossil energy you can expend to get your fresh apples whenever you want them. So long as fossil energy was very cheap you didn't even realize this limit existed. No that the era of Cheap Petroleum has ended the expense of out of season fresh food is climbing substantially, but you are so conditioned to the idea that fresh fruit is available any time of the year you seek to blame something else for the increase in costs. Gouging by the shipping companies, or the markets, or if you confront them they point at fuel costs and you blame 'big oil' for being greedy instead of actually looking at what the root cause is.
Snap judgements are hard wired into your brain, if you are out in the forest and you hear a twig snap behind you the hair on the back of your neck probably stands up and you get a feeling of hyper sensitivity as you body prepares to fight whatever is sneaking up on you or sprint away from it. Something you don't like happens, the price of your fresh fruit in the off season goes substantially higher. Instinctively you look for a cause in your immediate environment, the Market is to blame. They displace the blame onto the shipping company so now you are a step removed from your snap reaction. The shipper further displaces the blame onto the fuel supplier, now you are two steps removed from your snap reaction. The fuel supplier places the blame off on the Refiners or 'Big Oil', or the OPEC members. You reluctantly accept that the supplier is just a middle man and it is some evil cartel or greedy oil executive causing your discomfort. By this time the constant need to reevaluate who is to blame has you even more irritated, frustrated and down right angry about high prices than you were when you could not afford a fresh juicy apple on your summer holiday. When the Petroleum Producers say, it is a natural limit there is nothing they can do, you are tired of making new evaluations of who is to blame and have Already Stopped Listening.
The only way to prevent this probable outcome from the effects of Peak oil is to educate the person before they feel the pain associated with the end of cheap oil. If you take someone of reasonable intelligence and teach them about fundamental limits and what those limits will cause to happen they may forget what you taught them. However when events unfold that resemble what you taught them about limits most of them will remember that this pattern is something expected to happen, they just are unlucky enough to have it happen to them. Unfortunately the western education system has done a very poor job of teaching about limits, and you can not remember what you never learned in the first place. Cheap Oil has so altered our concept of natural limits that unless you raised something from germination/birth through harvest/slaughter you have no emotional grasp on what goes into producing the food that you consume frequently without the least thought to how it got to your plate or cup.
by Keith_McClary » Mon 13 Jan 2014, 16:46:21
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', ' ') Language is what sets our species apart from other species because it gives us the ability to pass education to others without direct training being involved.
...
Something you don't like happens, the price of your fresh fruit in the off season goes substantially higher. Instinctively you look for a cause in your immediate environment, the Market is to blame.
...
The only way to prevent this probable outcome from the effects of Peak oil is to educate the person before they feel the pain associated with the end of cheap oil.
You are thinking in terms of a modern individual rationally looking for a cause.
The way I took it, we evolved "neuronal niches" fitted to a social hunter-gatherer life (pre agriculture, pre literacy). People were not individualistic or "rational" as we (like to think we) are today.
Language and other social behaviours evolved to exchange information about the availability of many different food resources. Information like "you can climb that hill and look for berries" and "you can eat these yucchy roots from the swamp". Animals without language can do this to some extent, but they are not so good at keeping the tribe up to date on the current availability of the various available resources and then making collective social decisions on how to best exploit them.
I think this describes our behaviour in forming "communities" today, whether it is gardeners, Chevy owners, main street businesses, engineers or nation states. Initially we want to be in the loop so we are not missing important information useful to ourselves. This naturally morphs into collective activities to benefit the "community". An example is this flashlight aficionado site:
http://budgetlightforum.com/forum/marketplace/dealswhere they exchange info on products and good (and bad) deals, and arrange for discounts and group buys (and get way more posts than PO

).
We also have some altruistic communities that are not concerned with individual or collective benefits to their members, but this is more of a stretch from the "evolutionary older function" in Dehaene's corollary:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he difficulty of learning a new concept or technique is directly related to the amount of recycling needed—the distance between the evolutionary older function and the new one.
When the old and the new functions are closely related (isomorphic), an evolutionary old cerebral processor can provide a fast, unconscious and unexpected solution to a recent cultural problem—this is what we call "intuition".
Facebook knows you're a dog.
by lasseter » Tue 14 Jan 2014, 23:16:47
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'W')e are number 2 for "peak oil" on whatever search engine you try, right after Wiki, that is a pretty valuable position to have, what should we do with it?
Well I'm brand new here pops and certainly don't want to be giving advice. I agree with everything you said though, after years of learning and preparing it can get a little hard raising the flag every day.
I thought the action Reddit took to ban any climate change denial posting was a great move for them. Like peak oil the topic will always have it naysayers, even in the face of overwhelming evidence (as with peak oil) So why entertain the opposition I say, cast them out into the outer darkness lol.
If that could be achieved then you would be able to discuss matters rationally and not waste hours wading through drivel like a thread I read here about expanding deep sea drilling. I mean to say, after the gulf oil spill the least that should have done is enactment of a 10 year moratorium to allow the technology to mature to a point where it didn't risk destroying a large section of the planet's biosphere. I'm not proposing anything but my point is, why even discuss the bloody topic as though it was a rational solution to a problem? It's toxic!
Anyway, forums like these will always go the way they go and attract the people they attract. And short of clearing out all the trolls-in-denial I doubt there is much can be done to good effect. You have done a good job here though, I wish I had found the place 10 years ago myself. But 10 years ago I was over on the origonal goldismoney where we were all doing the same things you were doing here I imagine.
Moving out into the country and stocking up.
Friends, good long lasting friends, these are worth more than gold
-

lasseter
- Peat

-
- Posts: 100
- Joined: Sat 11 Jan 2014, 03:34:30
-