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Should PO.Com Have A Purpose?

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Should PO.Com Have A Purpose?

Postby radon1 » Sun 05 Jan 2014, 19:19:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('C8', ' ')This is a place for people to post, generate page clicks, generate revenue-
I wish this website to generate as much revenue as it is imaginable, and more. I would not be upset for a second.
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Re: Should PO.Com Have A Purpose?

Postby Loki » Sun 05 Jan 2014, 21:19:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SeaGypsy', 'I')'m sure Admin is laughing all the way to the bank in his Tesla Roadster. (really???- I know a few folk who run much busier websites who still need a 9-5 job. 10,000 hits a day might earn enough to live just ok in a developing country. This place might get a tenth of that.- Probably just pays the IP rent and coffee.)

Ha ha, the notion that peakoil.com is a profit making venture is hilarious. Granted, Admin pays me by the word for all my posts, but he asked me not to tell anyone :wink:

With the demise of the Planning forum I've come to value PO.com primarily as a place to get a larger picture of the global economy and environment, obviously with a strong emphasis on energy issues. There are other sources for this info if you look hard enough, but PO.com is a great clearinghouse and I like the ability to discuss and start my own topics (as opposed to commenting on the blogs and the like). There are also some damn knowledgeable folks here from around the world.

There are much better boards for getting technical prepping advice. Some survivalist sites have great info on off-grid power, storing water, troubleshooting equipment, gardening, guns, etc. But I find their grasp of our energy and environmental situation tenuous at best---peak oil and climate change are liberal conspiracies, the "FSA" (Free Shit Army) and socialists like "Obummer" are at the root of all our problems, the race war will start as soon as EBT is cut off, ad naseum :roll:

Coming back to PO.com after reading that drivel is a breath of fresh air, even if no one here can help me troubleshoot my off-grid electric system or offer advice as to what to do about a rusty gas tube on an AK.
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Re: Should PO.Com Have A Purpose?

Postby Narz » Mon 06 Jan 2014, 04:52:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'W')hat good does debt-free do. So you don't "owe" money? Big deal. At this point it makes sense to buy stuff on credit, go broke and head for bankruptcy. The hard decision is the credit-run; do you buy bugout stuff, last-hurrah fun stuff, or liquor, which combines the best of of both worlds.

People have been saying this on peakoil since the beginning. I met a fellow personally (one of the most prominent posters of the past) who claimed (in person) to have spent nearly $10k on food supplies (this was in early 2007).
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Re: Should PO.Com Have A Purpose?

Postby MD » Mon 06 Jan 2014, 06:04:03

PO.com's purpose is strictly defined by its URL. It's been engaged in a never ending battle to control the definition of the term, and that will always be its purpose.

Anything else is like trying to run a baking recipe site from cars.com.
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Re: Should PO.Com Have A Purpose?

Postby SeaGypsy » Mon 06 Jan 2014, 07:58:01

The most 'successful'- (busiest) sites (non porn) are populist news aggregation points running a global theme. In this- peakoil.com seems a natural. But there is a second factor- Drama. A guy I know gets 10,000 hits a day writing expose's on underworld dramas in Thailand. People love that shit. Lawless or near so country, utter corruption, scam city, a never ending stream of tales of misadventure usually leading to murder, prison, blackmail, full blown international organised crime. Another one runs a less original news aggregation site on the nastiest religious violence in the world.- gets 20-30 thousand hits a day. Another just posts the goriest uncensored stuff appearing anywhere- average 15,000 a day.

When the world was about to end in 2009- we here probably peaked at (admin?) 5000+ a day?

Human beings have an innate need for drama in our lives. The more mundane and ordinary and predictable- the more likely to be seeking out- blood, gore, guts, cruelty, brutality. Most people spending a whack of their time online have pretty boring lives in reality. Discussing a subject which is innately boring- until it isn't- is, well, boring.

I guess what I'm trying to say is that if what is wanted is more clicks, more activity- we need a more open posting policy & CoC. This can only come at the cost of losing the 'family friendly' rating most people would give the site- along with the risk attached to tampering with what has become a benchmark CoC for online discussion boards. Therein lies the rub.
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Re: Should PO.Com Have A Purpose?

Postby Ibon » Mon 06 Jan 2014, 11:06:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SeaGypsy', '
')I guess what I'm trying to say is that if what is wanted is more clicks, more activity- we need a more open posting policy & CoC. This can only come at the cost of losing the 'family friendly' rating most people would give the site- along with the risk attached to tampering with what has become a benchmark CoC for online discussion boards. Therein lies the rub.


There is that balance between appealing to as many as possible while maintaining a certain factual, objective and scientific integrity. Otherwise we lose complete credibility which is what happens for example when doomsday sites put in too much drama, like Latoc or the wack job Ruppert. Kunstler's style is also high drama verbage that turns more people off than enlightens them.

On some level, that early revolutionary urge to provoke the status quo with high drama is for me kind of waning. We are so close to consequences happening that I prefer to surrender the shock value over to those very consequences and have this website maintain more sobriety.

If you profile the thousands that go on those sites you mentioned I bet you would find mostly that primitive personality type of frustrated individual who vicarisouly enjoy the misery and downfall of others to justify their own miserable existence. I might be wrong but I think these types are never going to be preppers or on the vanguard of solutions to dealing with overshoot.
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Re: Should PO.Com Have A Purpose?

Postby SeaGypsy » Mon 06 Jan 2014, 19:19:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', '
')
If you profile the thousands that go on those sites you mentioned I bet you would find mostly that primitive personality type of frustrated individual who vicarisouly enjoy the misery and downfall of others to justify their own miserable existence. I might be wrong but I think these types are never going to be preppers or on the vanguard of solutions to dealing with overshoot.


Nicely put. This touches on the theme I just wrote about on the Middle East Madness thread. I totally agree on the 'quality and integrity' maintenance of peakoil.com being central. However, not that this should change anything here- sometimes the positions labelled as 'extreme' do come to pass. They only then become acceptable mainstream fodder. From where I observe- some of the most serious and immediate issues emerging are only being talked about on fringe and 'far right' sites. These often point to the blindsiding of the left to what is going on, suggesting perhaps with a degree of accuracy- that big picture multi- generational issues like climate and oil/ energy are distracting the left from what is going on right now every day and where this suggests the world could be heading way before something like major sea level rise makes any significant difference to anyone.
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Re: Should PO.Com Have A Purpose?

Postby americandream » Mon 06 Jan 2014, 19:31:08

The far left is extremely aware of these issues. So much so that we have been hounded into virtual extinction during the Cold War. Implicit in the message of revolutionary socialists is an understanding that this will end bad, UNLESS we change. As a Marxist once told me as a kid, "a capitalist will sell the life out of this planet to make a fast buck." The far left mostly lurk in the fringes these days as our message is not a popular one, if you will recollect. We drop the odd snippet is as delicate a manner these days.

PO.com works fine as it is. I suspect that those Ibon refers to are suffering from a major case of alienation, something that grows by the day.
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Re: Should PO.Com Have A Purpose?

Postby SeaGypsy » Mon 06 Jan 2014, 19:38:52

One of those occasions I am inclined to agree with you AD. I think the far left has almost lost it's voice- becoming subsumed into the greater 'green-left' coalition. Where there was once a staunch global vanguard for communism- there is almost a void.
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Re: Should PO.Com Have A Purpose?

Postby Keith_McClary » Tue 07 Jan 2014, 01:07:15

Hey, we just passed a million posts!
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Re: Should PO.Com Have A Purpose?

Postby ROCKMAN » Tue 07 Jan 2014, 19:20:02

And with that it appears to have answered the question: Yes...to serve the 0.011% of the US population that haunts these hallowed grounds.
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Re: Should PO.Com Have A Purpose?

Postby Ayoob » Fri 10 Jan 2014, 03:07:03

I think something that would be very useful for PO.com to have is a wiki that has profiles on the major personalities that have been part of the discussion. Start with MKH, various oil company executives, some of the lefties in the book-hawking business, etc. It kind of helps to frame the discussion to see what many people's input have been over time.

Jay Hanson is an interesting character, there should definitely be something about him. I think there was a wiki here at one point and I tried to get something started along those lines, but my efforts sucked and I never wound up making it happen.

Savinar used to have a great format for news aggregation.

It might be a good idea to do an aggregate of links to other resources to help people fill in the gaps on what to do as resources become scarce.
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Re: Should PO.Com Have A Purpose?

Postby Keith_McClary » Mon 13 Jan 2014, 01:15:01

Ran across this in my random surfing:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'K')leiner's Law

Every organization always operates on behalf of the perceived needs and priorities of some core group of key people. This purpose will trump every other organizational loyalty, including those to shareholders, employees, customers, and other constituents.
http://www.edge.org/q2004/page2.html


Many other gems from this site, such as:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'D')ehaene's First Law

Every successful human invention such as arithmetic or the alphabet has a "neuronal niche"—a set of cerebral processors that evolved for a distinct purpose, but can be recycled to implement the new function.

Two corollaries:

The difficulty of learning a new concept or technique is directly related to the amount of recycling needed—the distance between the evolutionary older function and the new one.

When the old and the new functions are closely related (isomorphic), an evolutionary old cerebral processor can provide a fast, unconscious and unexpected solution to a recent cultural problem—this is what we call "intuition".
http://www.edge.org/q2004/page6.html

Could this be why people don't "get" peak oil (or AGW)?
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Re: Should PO.Com Have A Purpose?

Postby Tanada » Mon 13 Jan 2014, 07:09:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Keith_McClary', 'R')an across this in my random surfing:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'K')leiner's Law

Every organization always operates on behalf of the perceived needs and priorities of some core group of key people. This purpose will trump every other organizational loyalty, including those to shareholders, employees, customers, and other constituents.
http://www.edge.org/q2004/page2.html


Many other gems from this site, such as:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'D')ehaene's First Law

Every successful human invention such as arithmetic or the alphabet has a "neuronal niche"—a set of cerebral processors that evolved for a distinct purpose, but can be recycled to implement the new function.

Two corollaries:

The difficulty of learning a new concept or technique is directly related to the amount of recycling needed—the distance between the evolutionary older function and the new one.

When the old and the new functions are closely related (isomorphic), an evolutionary old cerebral processor can provide a fast, unconscious and unexpected solution to a recent cultural problem—this is what we call "intuition".
http://www.edge.org/q2004/page6.html

Could this be why people don't "get" peak oil (or AGW)?


As a general rule the perceived needs of that core group can be anything. If the core group places their sense of value of self worth in having the happiest customers base then they will place Customer Service as their core value, if on the other hand they place self worth on being financially efficient then they will cut costs and seek to reduce expenses to the greatest extent possible. It is even true of volunteer organizations, if your local Red Cross places their sense of self worth in recognition for helping the community in times of disaster that is where they will place all their efforts, if your local charity is the Salvation Army chapter or the Homeless Shelter their focus will be on serving the spiritual and or physical needs of the less fortunate.

As for the Alphabet and Arithmetic, both are outgrowths of symbolic logic i.e. language. Language is what sets our species apart from other species because it gives us the ability to pass education to others without direct training being involved. What I mean is, you can read a book on how to fix a leaking piece of plumbing under your sink and likely fix the leak if you are able to understand what you read and have the necessary tools. If humans had no language then you would have to be shown how to do the repair by someone skilled in the repair, and to pass that knowledge on to your friends or relatives you would have to show them how you made the repair for them to learn it themselves.

Peak Oil and AGW are really both cases of hitting limits, in the former it is the limit to how fast Petroleum energy can be produced and consumed by our species, in the latter case it is how much CO2 or other greenhouse gasses our planet can absorb without undergoing significant climate effects. Limits are an abstract concept, they have to be learned by experience. If you are given four apples by your neighbor every week all autumn you grow to expect their to always be four apples available, but once the apple season has passed and the varied cultivars of Apples are no longer baring the supply stops. Repetition of the cycle will teach you that Apples are available in the Autumn, and keep through the Winter for a few weeks, but are not available in the Spring or Summer. Then abundant fossil fuels come along and provide rapid transport of Apples from far away places where the seasons are different than they are where you live and suddenly you can get apples, fresh crunchy sweet apples, in Spring and Summer. You become conditioned to the idea that Apples are always available, that there is no limit to when you can have an fresh juicy Apple.

The problem is the limit still exists, but now instead of natural seasons the limit is how much fossil energy you can expend to get your fresh apples whenever you want them. So long as fossil energy was very cheap you didn't even realize this limit existed. No that the era of Cheap Petroleum has ended the expense of out of season fresh food is climbing substantially, but you are so conditioned to the idea that fresh fruit is available any time of the year you seek to blame something else for the increase in costs. Gouging by the shipping companies, or the markets, or if you confront them they point at fuel costs and you blame 'big oil' for being greedy instead of actually looking at what the root cause is.

Snap judgements are hard wired into your brain, if you are out in the forest and you hear a twig snap behind you the hair on the back of your neck probably stands up and you get a feeling of hyper sensitivity as you body prepares to fight whatever is sneaking up on you or sprint away from it. Something you don't like happens, the price of your fresh fruit in the off season goes substantially higher. Instinctively you look for a cause in your immediate environment, the Market is to blame. They displace the blame onto the shipping company so now you are a step removed from your snap reaction. The shipper further displaces the blame onto the fuel supplier, now you are two steps removed from your snap reaction. The fuel supplier places the blame off on the Refiners or 'Big Oil', or the OPEC members. You reluctantly accept that the supplier is just a middle man and it is some evil cartel or greedy oil executive causing your discomfort. By this time the constant need to reevaluate who is to blame has you even more irritated, frustrated and down right angry about high prices than you were when you could not afford a fresh juicy apple on your summer holiday. When the Petroleum Producers say, it is a natural limit there is nothing they can do, you are tired of making new evaluations of who is to blame and have Already Stopped Listening.

The only way to prevent this probable outcome from the effects of Peak oil is to educate the person before they feel the pain associated with the end of cheap oil. If you take someone of reasonable intelligence and teach them about fundamental limits and what those limits will cause to happen they may forget what you taught them. However when events unfold that resemble what you taught them about limits most of them will remember that this pattern is something expected to happen, they just are unlucky enough to have it happen to them. Unfortunately the western education system has done a very poor job of teaching about limits, and you can not remember what you never learned in the first place. Cheap Oil has so altered our concept of natural limits that unless you raised something from germination/birth through harvest/slaughter you have no emotional grasp on what goes into producing the food that you consume frequently without the least thought to how it got to your plate or cup.
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Re: Should PO.Com Have A Purpose?

Postby Keith_McClary » Mon 13 Jan 2014, 16:46:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', ' ') Language is what sets our species apart from other species because it gives us the ability to pass education to others without direct training being involved.
...
Something you don't like happens, the price of your fresh fruit in the off season goes substantially higher. Instinctively you look for a cause in your immediate environment, the Market is to blame.
...
The only way to prevent this probable outcome from the effects of Peak oil is to educate the person before they feel the pain associated with the end of cheap oil.
You are thinking in terms of a modern individual rationally looking for a cause.

The way I took it, we evolved "neuronal niches" fitted to a social hunter-gatherer life (pre agriculture, pre literacy). People were not individualistic or "rational" as we (like to think we) are today.

Language and other social behaviours evolved to exchange information about the availability of many different food resources. Information like "you can climb that hill and look for berries" and "you can eat these yucchy roots from the swamp". Animals without language can do this to some extent, but they are not so good at keeping the tribe up to date on the current availability of the various available resources and then making collective social decisions on how to best exploit them.

I think this describes our behaviour in forming "communities" today, whether it is gardeners, Chevy owners, main street businesses, engineers or nation states. Initially we want to be in the loop so we are not missing important information useful to ourselves. This naturally morphs into collective activities to benefit the "community". An example is this flashlight aficionado site:
http://budgetlightforum.com/forum/marketplace/deals
where they exchange info on products and good (and bad) deals, and arrange for discounts and group buys (and get way more posts than PO 8O ).

We also have some altruistic communities that are not concerned with individual or collective benefits to their members, but this is more of a stretch from the "evolutionary older function" in Dehaene's corollary:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he difficulty of learning a new concept or technique is directly related to the amount of recycling needed—the distance between the evolutionary older function and the new one.

When the old and the new functions are closely related (isomorphic), an evolutionary old cerebral processor can provide a fast, unconscious and unexpected solution to a recent cultural problem—this is what we call "intuition".
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Re: Should PO.Com Have A Purpose?

Postby lasseter » Tue 14 Jan 2014, 23:16:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'W')e are number 2 for "peak oil" on whatever search engine you try, right after Wiki, that is a pretty valuable position to have, what should we do with it?

Well I'm brand new here pops and certainly don't want to be giving advice. I agree with everything you said though, after years of learning and preparing it can get a little hard raising the flag every day.

I thought the action Reddit took to ban any climate change denial posting was a great move for them. Like peak oil the topic will always have it naysayers, even in the face of overwhelming evidence (as with peak oil) So why entertain the opposition I say, cast them out into the outer darkness lol.

If that could be achieved then you would be able to discuss matters rationally and not waste hours wading through drivel like a thread I read here about expanding deep sea drilling. I mean to say, after the gulf oil spill the least that should have done is enactment of a 10 year moratorium to allow the technology to mature to a point where it didn't risk destroying a large section of the planet's biosphere. I'm not proposing anything but my point is, why even discuss the bloody topic as though it was a rational solution to a problem? It's toxic!

Anyway, forums like these will always go the way they go and attract the people they attract. And short of clearing out all the trolls-in-denial I doubt there is much can be done to good effect. You have done a good job here though, I wish I had found the place 10 years ago myself. But 10 years ago I was over on the origonal goldismoney where we were all doing the same things you were doing here I imagine.

Moving out into the country and stocking up.
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Re: Should PO.Com Have A Purpose?

Postby SeaGypsy » Wed 15 Jan 2014, 07:40:16

Lasseter, one of the keys to the longevity of this site is it's CoC. Whilst the trolls may be upsetting to newbies, they are a part of what happens here. We 'need' them. Blocking them on the first instance, or for simply exercising free speech- can have 2 obvious negative effects- an echo chamber syndrome (everyone agreeing on everything quickly leads to a very boring conversation) and an endless stream of new trolls. If you have lurked a while you will have seen mention of the legendary 'Shorty'. An absolute classic troll, quite eloquent and knowledgeable, full on argumentative, far from stupid. Shorty had so many incarnations we lost count. Some of these lasted for thousands of posts, so there was a definite continuity. Others were replacements for permanently banned logins, were creatively reworked to really appear to be a new poster, only to be caught out sometimes quickly sometimes months later. This kind of troll, whilst irritating at times, is much preferable to an endless stream of just plain old dumb as doggie doo trolls so often found around the web. They troll, but they put ordinary trolls to shame. They provide grist for the mill.

Another point comes to mind- many of us regulars here have developed quite high tolerance levels for each other. There are posters here who have been here for years, who almost none of us agree with, but you will rarely see us having a bash at them. We have from time to time banged heads here and sorted stuff out and let stuff ride for the greater good. To a newbie this can appear as if "Hey WTF?- WHY is NOBODY CONFRONTING THIS SHIITE?" This is your cue. Go for it, let rip. We have your back. :-D
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Re: Should PO.Com Have A Purpose?

Postby Newfie » Wed 15 Jan 2014, 18:56:37

I dunno about all that. Maybe you have a point, maybe not.

I like to move on in my thinking, grow, progress. I find arguing th the trolls pretty boring and not very entertaining or productive. Trolls are just same shit, different day. I experience these endless arguments as pretty pointless and entertaining only to the participants.

I'm a life long atheist, yet my Cistercian monk cousin and I were able to have a very pleasant, but deep hour long chat. Obviously we have significant disagreements, but were able to explore some of our common meaningful experiences.

IMHO, and in my experience, the trollish debates are dead ends without point or resolution. The energy would be better spent looking forward and planning or scheming.
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