[mcgowanjm]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bl00k', 'L')ook at that spike! Makes me feel a little warm inside.

[Peleg]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('chuck6877', 'T')ell me technical analysis isn't working on the US dollar trade!

LOOK HERE at the Dollar hitting the 100 day moving average which is the red line which represents the 20 week moving average. This has held for the last year and a half!:
[web]http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD&p=W&b=4&g=0&id=p35105816734[/web]

That 100 day moving average is a freekin' wall for the dollar...

Chuck

[Armageddon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MacG', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('emersonbiggins', '9')8,000 acres in Paraguay and satellite phones = autonomy, if you can get it.

The Rockerfellers and Rothchilds of the world won't be intermingling in the town square for the leftover crumbs.

[dohboi]

Welcome to the forum and the madness, mcgowanjm. I like your style, but I would like to know why you think the $170 range will be the breaking point, and what exactly you think will happen at that point.

Tracing the tops of the peaks on the charts does seem to give us a new trend line. I am wondering if this is merely the new rate of increase that will now hold until collapse, or if we will start seeing ever steeper rates of hyperinflation on oil (and so eventually everything else).

[MacG]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', 'V')alid points. But I am sure their money is in gold, land and hard assets which will always make them elitists. We, the people of the world, are the only suckers who use paper money with no backing. Debt = enslavement

[smallpoxgirl]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('chuck6877', 'S')mallpoxgirl, what do you think will happen next?

Adam Hamilton is real big about the % above the 200dma and how it repeats itself.

[lowem]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('idiom', 'A')w dude. You missed a great show.

[mcgowanjm]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dohboi', 'W')elcome to the forum and the madness, mcgowanjm. I like your style, but I would like to know why you think the $170 range will be the breaking point, and what exactly you think will happen at that point."

Tracing the tops of the peaks on the charts does seem to give us a new trend line. I am wondering if this is merely the new rate of increase that will now hold until collapse, or if we will start seeing ever steeper rates of hyperinflation on oil (and so eventually everything else).

[eXpat]

OPEC sees no need to pump more after price surge, article link

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'D')UBAI (Reuters) - OPEC members saw no need on Sunday to pump more oil in response to last week's double-digit surge in oil prices to over $139 a barrel that top exporter Saudi Arabia described as unjustified.

More pain was coming for consuming economies hurting from record fuel costs as prices were likely to climb further, officials from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said.

Oil soared more than $16 a barrel - over 13 percent - in a two-day rally on Thursday and Friday on weakness in the U.S. dollar and rising tension between Israel and Iran.

"I think there is enough oil in the market," Shokri Ghanem, head of OPEC member Libya's National Oil Corporation, told Reuters in a telephone interview.

[dohboi]

Yeah, Expat, it will be interesting. Do you think the price will drop a bit now as people start seeing last weeks run up as emotional reaction? Or was that the beginning of a new, longer run up?

I don't pretend to be able to predict day-to-day prices, but I very much doubt any new "correction" will be any deeper or last any longer than the last one.

For me, the important new record was not so much the new high, but the amount and the suddenness of the swing. Such gyrations are likely to get wilder and more extreme as doomerish glimpses of reality alternate with denial...

James, I don't completely follow you, but keep in mind that this "wave" is almost surely of a qualitatively and quantitatively different sort than 1979. That was a blip in the rising side of a bell curve; this is the other side of that whole curve--very different in magnitude, duration, finality...

[eXpat]

Just my observations dohboi, but it almost always drops during the weekend and then starts gathering strength again. Unlike previous weeks, this weekend there were not good news to soothe the markets, I would guess that by Tuesday things are going to start moving again.

[biofuel13]

I don't think that there is too much doubt on the part of people who post on this thread that oil will top $140 this week. Do we think that it will top $150 this week? That is my question.....I'm guessing we will top out at $147.62 for the week.

[idiom]

The market has had all weekend to fret, worry, doubt and double guess themselves.

Mondays open could be a real mess.

[lowem]

It's evening over here and we've just bounced off $135. Could be looking for consolidation for now, either 135-140 or 130-140 range.

But hey.

$150 oil beckons!

[chuck6877]

I think my 1.421 times the 200 day moving average theory is going to be a rising ceiling until something CRAZY happens in the markets like Iran being attacked, another hurricane, or an admission that Saudi is way past peak.

When oil hit $135.09 the 200dma was about 95.06
135.09/95.06= 1.421 times the 200dma

When oil hit $139.12 the 200dma was 97.88
139.12/97.88= 1.421 times the 200dma

Strange Coincidence! (or not a coincidence)

1.421 X the 200dma is an amazing amount to be stretched above the 200dma. This is a phenomenal bull market with fundamentals out the WAZOO but I think until massive chaos happens this might be a rising top for a while.

I predict we'll go down below $130 and then maybe run up to $145 then run below about $135 and then run up to $150 when the 200dma is $106. (106x1.421=150.60!!)

The 200dma should be at $106 in about 6 weeks to allow for $150 if my theory holds!

[web]http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$WTIC&p=DAILY&b=5&g=0&id=p73978513119[/web]

[chuck6877]

I've found a strange coincidence (or not a coincidence) in the last two run ups......

When oil hit $135.09 the 200 dma was 95.06
135.09/95.06= 1.421 x the 200dma

When oil hit $139.12 the 200 dma was 97.88
139.12/97.88= 1.421 x the 200dma again!!

1.421 x the 200 dma is recurring... I think 1.421 x the 200dma will be a rising ceiling until there is widespread panic over something... hurricane, war with Iran, Saudi past peak admission, or widespread undeniable shortages...

In my new opinion we'll go down to just below $130 then run up to about $145, then run down to about $134 and run up to break $150 in about 6 weeks.

If my theory holds the 200 dma will have to be $105.55 to allow oil at $150 (105.55x 1.421= 150) At the rate it's rising that will be about 6 weeks........

Let's see if I finally get something right.........

Oh and I made the blue line the 40 day moving average in the chart below. Look how it appears to be the floor!! The red line is the 200 dma.

Looking at the chart below with the 40dma as the floor and 1.421 percentage as the ceiling, you have to admit technical analysis can be pretty amazing and make things look orderly atleast after the fact
[web]http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$WTIC&p=D&b=4&g=0&id=p97292294150[/web]

[dohboi]

Thanks for pointing out that very interesting, weirdly precise match up between the two surges. It looks like we may be heading down to your $130 mark already, with a four dollar drop within the first hour of trading! Maybe you really are on to something this time.

[chuck6877]

Thanks for the pat on the back Dohboi

I knew you'd like it when I turned bullish!

If it's going to keep going up I think that 40 day moving average has to hold. Isn't it amazing how in the chart it keeps becoming a floor?

Edited to add: I still think a MAJOR correction will happen back to the 200dma. It will probably be after the summer though.

Chuck

[mcgowanjm]

"For me, the important new record was not so much the new high, but the amount and the suddenness of the swing. Such gyrations are likely to get wilder and more extreme as doomerish glimpses of reality alternate with denial...

James, I don't completely follow you, but keep in mind that this "wave" is almost surely of a qualitatively and quantitatively different sort than 1979. That was a blip in the rising side of a bell curve; this is the other side of that whole curve--very different in magnitude, duration, finality...[/quote]"

OK. 'the amt and suddenness of the swing' is exactly right.

We're nearing a blow off. Which is why I think time is more important than price now.

Think of an EKG screen and the 2 movements of the heart.

The first is rapid/most volatile. After "resting", the second movement climbs to near the level of the first.

But stays up longer on a gradually descending plateau
until collapsing to rest.

Rinse and repeat.

The problem here is that oil is our life's blood.
And no one puts a price on their life's blood.

Which is why I'm saying that after a certain time, say the next month and a 1/2, the price of oil will not matter.

We'll be to the end of Bahktiari's T2 (Transition 2).

[eXpat]

Very good points chuck6877, we´ll how it behaves.