My best explanation so far for the current record is this paragraph from the Financial Times:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Wall Street banks contributed to the rally as they bought crude oil futures to cover their obligations under agreements that compensate investors and companies such as airlines if crude rises above $140 a barrel.
PeakOil is You
Re: Another Oil price Record
Re: Another Record ($139.16)
by Doly » Mon 09 Jun 2008, 15:59:13
In short, a lot of big companies set about the same limit to what they could cope with if oil kept getting higher. Maybe more and more were getting wise about peak oil, who knows. But the crucial point is that their trigger point was a certain level of oil prices. Now we are reaching that trigger point, and it makes oil prices jump.
It's underpricing of risk, all over again.
What are you doing about peak oil?
I am doing this
(click on the www button) v
I am doing this
(click on the www button) v
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Re: Another Record ($139.16)
by lowem » Mon 09 Jun 2008, 22:39:02
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('chuck6877', 'I') still think a MAJOR correction will happen back to the 200dma. It will probably be after the summer though.
We've still in an uptrend channel. No crystal ball here, but I'd say consolidation in the $130-140 range for now, and if there is to be a correction, at the most working its way down to support levels at $120 and $110.
What say we give the 200dma another 200 days to catch up
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Re: Another Record ($139.16)
by jbrovont » Mon 09 Jun 2008, 23:00:36
Very nice! If this holds true, you may have discovered the key to a logrithmic equation to roughly describe all the factors that are currently affecting oil. (catastrophies not included 
)
In plain english, we may be looking at "200 days is the amount of time it takes oil to increase in value by 42.1%"
Which actually if we back up 200 days, isn't that far off: puts us around $80 in November/December, when we were actually moving between about $85 and $90.
That puts us at $197.74+/$5 in 200 days...so December 26th?
That's where my money is
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('chuck6877', 'I')'ve found a strange coincidence (or not a coincidence) in the last two run ups......
When oil hit $135.09 the 200 dma was 95.06
135.09/95.06= 1.421 x the 200dma
When oil hit $139.12 the 200 dma was 97.88
139.12/97.88= 1.421 x the 200dma again!!
1.421 x the 200 dma is recurring... I think 1.421 x the 200dma will be a rising ceiling until there is widespread panic over something... hurricane, war with Iran, Saudi past peak admission, or widespread undeniable shortages...
In my new opinion we'll go down to just below $130 then run up to about $145, then run down to about $134 and run up to break $150 in about 6 weeks.
If my theory holds the 200 dma will have to be $105.55 to allow oil at $150 (105.55x 1.421= 150) At the rate it's rising that will be about 6 weeks........
Let's see if I finally get something right.........
Oh and I made the blue line the 40 day moving average in the chart below. Look how it appears to be the floor!! The red line is the 200 dma.
Looking at the chart below with the 40dma as the floor and 1.421 percentage as the ceiling, you have to admit technical analysis can be pretty amazing and make things look orderly atleast after the fact
[web]http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$WTIC&p=D&b=4&g=0&id=p97292294150[/web]
)
In plain english, we may be looking at "200 days is the amount of time it takes oil to increase in value by 42.1%"
Which actually if we back up 200 days, isn't that far off: puts us around $80 in November/December, when we were actually moving between about $85 and $90.
That puts us at $197.74+/$5 in 200 days...so December 26th?
That's where my money is
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('chuck6877', 'I')'ve found a strange coincidence (or not a coincidence) in the last two run ups......
When oil hit $135.09 the 200 dma was 95.06
135.09/95.06= 1.421 x the 200dma
When oil hit $139.12 the 200 dma was 97.88
139.12/97.88= 1.421 x the 200dma again!!
1.421 x the 200 dma is recurring... I think 1.421 x the 200dma will be a rising ceiling until there is widespread panic over something... hurricane, war with Iran, Saudi past peak admission, or widespread undeniable shortages...
In my new opinion we'll go down to just below $130 then run up to about $145, then run down to about $134 and run up to break $150 in about 6 weeks.
If my theory holds the 200 dma will have to be $105.55 to allow oil at $150 (105.55x 1.421= 150) At the rate it's rising that will be about 6 weeks........
Let's see if I finally get something right.........
Oh and I made the blue line the 40 day moving average in the chart below. Look how it appears to be the floor!! The red line is the 200 dma.
Looking at the chart below with the 40dma as the floor and 1.421 percentage as the ceiling, you have to admit technical analysis can be pretty amazing and make things look orderly atleast after the fact
[web]http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$WTIC&p=D&b=4&g=0&id=p97292294150[/web]
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Re: Another Record ($139.16)
by dohboi » Tue 10 Jun 2008, 05:36:38
So that would be a doubling every 15 months or so? If that holds, it represents a significant reduction in the timescale for doubling from the two years its taken to double over the last few years.
My question is: What if the time scale for doubling continues to shrink? Do you have any models for that?
My question is: What if the time scale for doubling continues to shrink? Do you have any models for that?
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Re: Another Record ($139.16)
by charliehelyes » Tue 10 Jun 2008, 08:14:10
oil is back at $137.88 could today be another record setting day?
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Re: Another Record ($139.16)
by Barbara » Tue 10 Jun 2008, 09:16:04
Looks like the whole thing is computer controlled...
**no english mothertongue**
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Objects in the rear view mirror
are closer than they appear.
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Objects in the rear view mirror
are closer than they appear.
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Re: Another Record ($139.16)
by darren » Tue 10 Jun 2008, 09:40:13
I see the [s]astrologers[/s] technical analysts have been hard at work.....
And yes, we may well set a new record today! Oil can't seem to give up any gains for long.... "bad news" keeps coming out, since the situation is, in fact, fundamentally poor.
And yes, we may well set a new record today! Oil can't seem to give up any gains for long.... "bad news" keeps coming out, since the situation is, in fact, fundamentally poor.
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Re: Another Record ($139.16)
by smallpoxgirl » Tue 10 Jun 2008, 15:12:35
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('darren', 'I') see the [s]astrologers[/s] technical analysts have been hard at work.....
And yes, we may well set a new record today! Oil can't seem to give up any gains for long.... "bad news" keeps coming out, since the situation is, in fact, fundamentally poor.
And yes, we may well set a new record today! Oil can't seem to give up any gains for long.... "bad news" keeps coming out, since the situation is, in fact, fundamentally poor.
Yeah. Sorry. No new record. Oil is dropping like a stone. I wish I'd listened a bit more to the technicals and a bit less to the fundamentals this week. I saw it sitting there at the upper envelope line this morning. Big fat bearish harami the two days before, but I figured this run had more up side. Instead it looks like it's turned the corner and is headed south. It seems it's going correct back down to the lower envelope line. I think we're going to see 125 before we see 140.
I'm starting to think the abrupt upswing was actually the work of speculators. I don't think speculation really changes the overall price boundaries, but it certainly can lead to increased volatility.
"We were standing on the edges
Of a thousand burning bridges
Sifting through the ashes every day
What we thought would never end
Now is nothing more than a memory
The way things were before
I lost my way" - OCMS
Of a thousand burning bridges
Sifting through the ashes every day
What we thought would never end
Now is nothing more than a memory
The way things were before
I lost my way" - OCMS
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