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Production: Oil companies want the rules changed...

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Production: Oil companies want the rules changed...

Unread postby frankthetank » Wed 08 Feb 2006, 14:07:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')il companies want to change reserve accounting rules raising questions about the timing with regards to peak oil.

According to the Wall Street Journal big oil companies have issued a report with the goal of justifying how they account for their own strategic reserves.

The companies think that they can "be the best judge of their own stores of oil and gas rather than use a strict formula imposed by the
Securities and Exchange Commission. The companies argue that the SEC's method -- intended to provide investors with apples-to-apples comparisons -- is archaic and arbitrary, and undercounts the amount of energy on tap for the future."

The key to the whole situation is how fast a company replaces the oil it pulls out of the ground, a key measure used by Wall Street to give the company's stock their trading value.


Sounds like a way to manipulate numbers so they can keep stock prices high?? and hide declining supply?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he Journal provides the following example: " Exxon Mobil Corp., the world's biggest oil company, last year said that its own calculations showed it had succeeded in adding 1.8 billion "oil-equivalent" barrels to replace the 1.6 billion barrels it had pumped in 2004. In other words, by Exxon's calculation, it had replaced more than 112% of the oil and gas it had pumped out of the ground the year before. But using the SEC rules, the oil giant actually fell behind, replacing only 1.3 billion barrels, or 83%."


LINK

I guess if foreign governments can make up numbers, why can't the rest of them?
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Re: Oil companies want the rules changed...

Unread postby strider3700 » Wed 08 Feb 2006, 14:20:29

heh why am I not surprised to see exxon mentioned. They are generally slagged in the markets because they aren't replacing their reserves. I wonder what they classify as oil equivalent?
shame on us, doomed from the start
god have mercy on our dirty little hearts
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Re: Oil companies want the rules changed...

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Wed 08 Feb 2006, 16:08:06

If you read the article futher here is actually the crux of the arguments:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')ERA's report, according to the Journal cites key constraints placed on oil companies by the SEC, such as the rules that "prevent companies from claiming hundreds of millions of barrels of crude oil that can be taken from Canada's oil sands -- oil that is notoriously difficult and expensive to extract. But critics say the SEC rules don't take into account new technology that makes producing the oil profitable. Companies also complain about a rule that requires them to use the market price of oil and natural gas as of Dec. 31 each year to calculate which projects are economically feasible, a criterion for claiming reserves. At higher prices, more oil is profitable to pump. But a Dec. 31 price can be considerably higher or lower than the average for the whole year, the measure CERA prefers."


The SEC only allows reporting of proven reserves. Proven require greater than 90% confidence that that reserve can be produced economically.....probable greater than 50%. Proven is really the category that is under discussion as that is one that investment firms most often use in their metrics. Given the rules governing oil price to use for yearly evaluations it is often the case that year end reports on proven reserves can suffer from unusually low prices on December 31. Such was the case for Conoco when they made their year end report for 2004:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')onsistent with the company's practice and in accordance with Securities and Exchange Commission guidelines to use year-end prices for reserve estimation, due to unusually low year-end Canadian bitumen value estimates, the company anticipates a negative revision of proved crude oil reserves for the Surmont project. However, as previously stated, before application of this negative revision, the company expects net reserve additions to approximate 2004 production, excluding acquisitions and sales.


Alternatively if the oil price is unusually high on Dec 31 then the company can book many more proven reserves....if oil price drops the next Dec 31 in comparison they would have to write down proven reserves.

So the Proven reserve reported under SEC guidelines really has nothing to do with reality. Probable reserves are continually elevated to proven status as a fields development continues and eventually possible reserves are converted to probable and then proven.
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