by rockdoc123 » Wed 08 Feb 2006, 16:08:06
If you read the article futher here is actually the crux of the arguments:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')ERA's report, according to the Journal cites key constraints placed on oil companies by the SEC, such as the rules that "prevent companies from claiming hundreds of millions of barrels of crude oil that can be taken from Canada's oil sands -- oil that is notoriously difficult and expensive to extract. But critics say the SEC rules don't take into account new technology that makes producing the oil profitable. Companies also complain about a rule that requires them to use the market price of oil and natural gas as of Dec. 31 each year to calculate which projects are economically feasible, a criterion for claiming reserves. At higher prices, more oil is profitable to pump. But a Dec. 31 price can be considerably higher or lower than the average for the whole year, the measure CERA prefers."
The SEC only allows reporting of proven reserves. Proven require greater than 90% confidence that that reserve can be produced economically.....probable greater than 50%. Proven is really the category that is under discussion as that is one that investment firms most often use in their metrics. Given the rules governing oil price to use for yearly evaluations it is often the case that year end reports on proven reserves can suffer from unusually low prices on December 31. Such was the case for Conoco when they made their year end report for 2004:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')onsistent with the company's practice and in accordance with Securities and Exchange Commission guidelines to use year-end prices for reserve estimation, due to unusually low year-end Canadian bitumen value estimates, the company anticipates a negative revision of proved crude oil reserves for the Surmont project. However, as previously stated, before application of this negative revision, the company expects net reserve additions to approximate 2004 production, excluding acquisitions and sales.
Alternatively if the oil price is unusually high on Dec 31 then the company can book many more proven reserves....if oil price drops the next Dec 31 in comparison they would have to write down proven reserves.
So the Proven reserve reported under SEC guidelines really has nothing to do with reality. Probable reserves are continually elevated to proven status as a fields development continues and eventually possible reserves are converted to probable and then proven.