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Are we on the edge of the abyss? (merged)

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General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.
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Re: Imminent abyss aproacheth

Unread postby americandream » Sun 25 Apr 2010, 20:24:06

Listen. Quit pissing about and link us something that supports the inferences in all your posts to date that we have nothing to fear AKA, the world as we know it complete with rapaciously eager would be American way of lifers as we find in India and China to number a few billion AT LEAST, has a rosy future of more than adequate oil supply.

On the other hand, if you like the rest of us take the view that the planet's resource larder will NOT negotiate on the compromises that we have to make, then for heaven's sake, cease and desist from inculcating false and unfounded optimism in BAU (which is in effect what you are doing, sunny Jim).

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', '
')That comment aside, if there are crude reserves that you are aware of over and above those that the market are apparently counting on, then a link rather than some long winded dissertation on the follies of the thrift might be useful.


Oh. Thats easy, I assume everyone already knew about the additional 500 billion barrels officially counted just a few months ago.

http://www.usgs.gov/newsroom/article.asp?ID=2386

Its been censored from peaker discovery graphs for so long its been a real shocker for some when it showed back up!

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', '
')As it is, I have nothing to go on other than my common sense which tells me that the American way of life into 6 billion does not go and never will and that the current crop of one billion lifers does not for an endless future of many billions more lifers make.


Certainly I've never seen anyone assuming that 6 billion people have any possibility of living like Americans unless they are assembling a strawman in order to run what I call "we need 9 earths of resources!" argument. Most often assembled by Monte if I recall correctly. Are you supposing that a uniform distribution of living standards is in the cards under ANY circumstances whatsoever?
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Re: Imminent abyss aproacheth

Unread postby shortonsense » Sun 25 Apr 2010, 20:37:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', 'L')isten. Quit pissing about and link us something that supports the inferences in all your posts to date that we have nothing to fear AKA, the world as we know it complete with rapaciously eager would be American way of lifers as we find in India and China to number a few billion AT LEAST, has a rosy future of more than adequate oil supply.


Oh please...your entire strawman is predicated on more than adequate oil supply and I'm supposed to bite like a standard newby? Maybe INADEQUATE oil supply is exactly what is required to kickstart into high gear the process already happening around us?

Geeze....if you want to make something up at least be original....
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Re: Imminent abyss aproacheth

Unread postby mos6507 » Sun 25 Apr 2010, 20:38:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', 'i')t will indicate a see-saw-like shift back to the right



You mean "even more to the right." Obama is "left" only by current US standards, which are pretty far right compared to the EU, for instance. :(


Nobody could be elected in the US with the EU's definition of the left. Obama's already assassination-bait over universal healthcare. So that's about as left as we'll ever see.
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Re: Imminent abyss aproacheth

Unread postby Ludi » Sun 25 Apr 2010, 20:38:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', 'b')ut hey, better late than never.



I think you may be a tad early. :)
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Re: Imminent abyss aproacheth

Unread postby americandream » Sun 25 Apr 2010, 21:21:28

I'm going to ask you AGAIN. Will the planet's oil store support freewheeling, drive thru, prematurely obsolescent Walmartised American Way of Life writ large across the face of this planet's 6 billion and growing, long enough for us to find the Holy Grail to immortality and elevation to cosmic god status at some point in the future?

You won't come clean on providing me with links to ample oil reserves which is all I ask for. Just give me the evidence mate. I don't want to have to read all the other gobshite which is meaningless unless you can show me the numbers.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', 'L')isten. Quit pissing about and link us something that supports the inferences in all your posts to date that we have nothing to fear AKA, the world as we know it complete with rapaciously eager would be American way of lifers as we find in India and China to number a few billion AT LEAST, has a rosy future of more than adequate oil supply.


Oh please...your entire strawman is predicated on more than adequate oil supply and I'm supposed to bite like a standard newby? Maybe INADEQUATE oil supply is exactly what is required to kickstart into high gear the process already happening around us?

Geeze....if you want to make something up at least be original....
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Re: Imminent abyss aproacheth

Unread postby shortonsense » Sun 25 Apr 2010, 21:52:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', 'I')'m going to ask you AGAIN. Will the planet's oil store support freewheeling, drive thru, prematurely obsolescent Walmartised American Way of Life writ large across the face of this planet's 6 billion and growing, long enough for us to find the Holy Grail to immortality and elevation to cosmic god status at some point in the future?


You assemble a strawman within the question you ask. I have an interest in resource depletion, not some imagined theological connection to the consequences of mankinds behavior to date.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', '
')You won't come clean on providing me with links to ample oil reserves which is all I ask for.


Oh. Ample? Sure....maybe your google ability is somewhat limited? Well...okay....here ya go.....(doesn't include the other half a trillion I referenced earlier):

http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/international/reserves.html

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', '
')Just give me the evidence mate. I don't want to have to read all the other gobshite which is meaningless unless you can show me the numbers.


I understand.
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Re: Imminent abyss aproacheth

Unread postby americandream » Sun 25 Apr 2010, 22:07:32

You haven't a clue have you? You're just plucking baubles out yer tailgate, ain't ya?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', 'I')'m going to ask you AGAIN. Will the planet's oil store support freewheeling, drive thru, prematurely obsolescent Walmartised American Way of Life writ large across the face of this planet's 6 billion and growing, long enough for us to find the Holy Grail to immortality and elevation to cosmic god status at some point in the future?


You assemble a strawman within the question you ask. I have an interest in resource depletion, not some imagined theological connection to the consequences of mankinds behavior to date.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', '
')You won't come clean on providing me with links to ample oil reserves which is all I ask for.


Oh. Ample? Sure....maybe your google ability is somewhat limited? Well...okay....here ya go.....(doesn't include the other half a trillion I referenced earlier):

http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/international/reserves.html

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', '
')Just give me the evidence mate. I don't want to have to read all the other gobshite which is meaningless unless you can show me the numbers.


I understand.
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Re: Imminent abyss aproacheth

Unread postby shortonsense » Mon 26 Apr 2010, 00:55:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', 'Y')ou haven't a clue have you? You're just plucking baubles out yer tailgate, ain't ya?


You asked for information on ample oil reserves, I provided the most internet-easy source, if you don't like the ones I provided feel free to go find your own. If you didn't understand the numbers, blame your high school math teacher, not me.

Myself, I have never understood the fascination with reserve numbers anyway, unless the intent is to find the smallest number available to argue some sort of P/R ratio relationship, which I thought had already been thoroughly discredited.
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Re: Imminent abyss aproacheth

Unread postby americandream » Mon 26 Apr 2010, 01:08:38

Man you are stupid with a capital "S". Go back and tell me whether those reserves will sustain Walmartopian 6 billion and growing into the next age of infinite garbagetopia?

Go home and take a break from playing with the grownups, kiddo.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', 'Y')ou haven't a clue have you? You're just plucking baubles out yer tailgate, ain't ya?


You asked for information on ample oil reserves, I provided the most internet-easy source, if you don't like the ones I provided feel free to go find your own. If you didn't understand the numbers, blame your high school math teacher, not me.

Myself, I have never understood the fascination with reserve numbers anyway, unless the intent is to find the smallest number available to argue some sort of P/R ratio relationship, which I thought had already been thoroughly discredited.
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Re: Imminent abyss aproacheth

Unread postby shortonsense » Mon 26 Apr 2010, 01:31:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', 'M')an you are stupid with a capital "S". Go back and tell me whether those reserves will sustain Walmartopian 6 billion and growing into the next age of infinite garbagetopia?


Just because you wish to build ridiculous strawmen within some hideously obvious turn of phrase doesn't require me to bite. Whats the point? No one, particularly me, is claiming that Wal-topia is a possible future, that standards of living can be uniform across the planet at the American level, or that gadget-opia matters any more than your religious references.

I understand it when Peakers play "lets strawman the newbies into cowering piles of protoplasm in the corner" but certainly no one mistakes me for such an easy target nowadays.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', '
') Go home and take a break from playing with the grownups, kiddo.


Oh, NOW you are being funny! :o :o
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Re: Imminent abyss aproacheth

Unread postby americandream » Mon 26 Apr 2010, 01:42:41

In all the years I have been a member on this site, a recurrent concern inferred in most PO concerns has and remains the adequacy or inadequacy of our reserves, whether they be of peak oil school vintage or conventional counts from BAU sources, for a world of 6 plus billion intent on emulating faucet America in wastage. To date, not one of these numbskull cornucopianists who post on here has ever addressed this issue, instead skirting the whole question with vague and idiotic inanities.

Seems I recollect YOU boyo coming on here and ridiculing these concerns as well. If that does not sound like BAU propaganda, I don't know what is. Like I said, you haven't even the foggiest notion. Leave resourcing issues to those who know what they're on about.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', 'M')an you are stupid with a capital "S". Go back and tell me whether those reserves will sustain Walmartopian 6 billion and growing into the next age of infinite garbagetopia?


Just because you wish to build ridiculous strawmen within some hideously obvious turn of phrase doesn't require me to bite. Whats the point? No one, particularly me, is claiming that Wal-topia is a possible future, that standards of living can be uniform across the planet at the American level, or that gadget-opia matters any more than your religious references.

I understand it when Peakers play "lets strawman the newbies into cowering piles of protoplasm in the corner" but certainly no one mistakes me for such an easy target nowadays.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', '
') Go home and take a break from playing with the grownups, kiddo.


Oh, NOW you are being funny! :o :o
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Re: Imminent abyss aproacheth

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Mon 26 Apr 2010, 06:19:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', 'I')sn't there a thread somewhere that asked the question of when we'll know when TS has HTF?

Barring a fast-crash, I think that would be a very personal call to make.
........

.


The ten percent unemployed know it now as well as those millions who are underwater on there adjustable rate mortgages that are about to reset.
Those that are both unemployed and about to be foreclosed on are positive that they know which way the fan is flinging it. I read somewhere that some forty percent of American mortgage holders are under water right now.
Just add some four dollar a gallon gas to this and the understanding level will go right up.
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Re: Imminent abyss aproacheth

Unread postby Buggy » Mon 26 Apr 2010, 12:26:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', 'I')sn't there a thread somewhere that asked the question of when we'll know when TS has HTF?

Barring a fast-crash, I think that would be a very personal call to make.
........

.


The ten percent unemployed know it now as well as those millions who are underwater on there adjustable rate mortgages that are about to reset.
Those that are both unemployed and about to be foreclosed on are positive that they know which way the fan is flinging it. I read somewhere that some forty percent of American mortgage holders are under water right now.
Just add some four dollar a gallon gas to this and the understanding level will go right up.


A strong point you make. The clarity of the rear view mirror becomes more crisp with each passing day. We need not wonder when the collapse will start or what it will look like. Detroit, Buffalo, Youngstown, New Orleans, Cleveland, Dayton, Lima, and (fill in your city of choice) are all a testament that the collapse is well under way, and gaining momentum. No matter how hard Bernanke tries, he will not be able to print us out of this mess. No matter how hard Geithner tries, he will not be able to borrow our way out of debt. No matter how hard Obama tries, he is going to be the guy that didn't do enough of the right thing, and did too much of the wrong thing.
"We have flown up our own collective numeric bung-hole."
James Howard Kunstler
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Re: Imminent abyss aproacheth

Unread postby Ludi » Mon 26 Apr 2010, 12:43:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Buggy', ' ')(fill in your city of choice)



You could choose to list out cities which are apparently thriving. That would give a completely different perspective. For instance the city I'm closest to (San Antonio TX) seems to be doing fine. Very few signs of any kind of slowdown. Construction still going like mad (though much retail space sits empty). If I lived next to Detroit, on the other hand, I might think the world was about to end.
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Re: Imminent abyss aproacheth

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Mon 26 Apr 2010, 21:51:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Buggy', ' ')(fill in your city of choice)



You could choose to list out cities which are apparently thriving. That would give a completely different perspective. For instance the city I'm closest to (San Antonio TX) seems to be doing fine. Very few signs of any kind of slowdown. Construction still going like mad (though much retail space sits empty). If I lived next to Detroit, on the other hand, I might think the world was about to end.

.
Living near a ghetto is one thing. Having a pink slip in your hand is quite another.
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Re: Imminent abyss aproacheth

Unread postby shortonsense » Mon 26 Apr 2010, 21:55:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', 'I')n all the years I have been a member on this site, a recurrent concern inferred in most PO concerns has and remains the adequacy or inadequacy of our reserves, whether they be of peak oil school vintage or conventional counts from BAU sources, for a world of 6 plus billion intent on emulating faucet America in wastage.


Your entire comment is a strawman....and at the very least confuses the very concept of reserves with what is actually available for human use over a timescale of at least a century.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', '
') To date, not one of these numbskull cornucopianists who post on here has ever addressed this issue, instead skirting the whole question with vague and idiotic inanities.


Why should they? You want to construct a strawman on so many levels and pretend its some phantom cornies fault? Do you even understand why using the word "reserves" instead of "resources" is a dead giveaway for how the question has been rigged?

I believe it unlikely that your construction of the question happened by accident, while there are many ignorant people around here who might have done just that, I do not count you in that category of poster.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', '
')Seems I recollect YOU boyo coming on here and ridiculing these concerns as well. If that does not sound like BAU propaganda, I don't know what is. Like I said, you haven't even the foggiest notion. Leave resourcing issues to those who know what they're on about.


I ridicule all sorts of frivolous concerns....the current amount of reserves within the context of current global usage patterns is not one of them. And you know this as well as I do.
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Re: Imminent abyss aproacheth

Unread postby shortonsense » Mon 26 Apr 2010, 21:57:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Buggy', ' ')(fill in your city of choice)



You could choose to list out cities which are apparently thriving. That would give a completely different perspective. For instance the city I'm closest to (San Antonio TX) seems to be doing fine. Very few signs of any kind of slowdown. Construction still going like mad (though much retail space sits empty). If I lived next to Detroit, on the other hand, I might think the world was about to end.


I spent the week in New Orleans....for a city destroyed by a hurricane, it didn't look half bad. Plenty of the usual shootings, tourists everywhere, the place was an absolute zoo. Houston didn't look so bad last I was there either.

I still recommend people vote with their feet.
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Re: Imminent abyss aproacheth

Unread postby Ludi » Mon 26 Apr 2010, 21:59:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', '
')Living near a ghetto is one thing. Having a pink slip in your hand is quite another.



It's hard for me to identify with that sentiment. I've never had a job that lasted more than a year, most only a few weeks. So it's hard for me to identify with the idea of a job as a thing you could count on. I've gone to work to be told "you can work until lunch" because the project had been cancelled, with no warning.

If a "pink slip" is the sign of doom, I've experienced doom throughout my entire career.

Now being self-employed, I'm "unemployed" most of the time. Have not had paying work for weeks.
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Re: Imminent abyss aproacheth

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Tue 27 Apr 2010, 06:20:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', '
')Living near a ghetto is one thing. Having a pink slip in your hand is quite another.



It's hard for me to identify with that sentiment. I've never had a job that lasted more than a year, most only a few weeks. So it's hard for me to identify with the idea of a job as a thing you could count on. I've gone to work to be told "you can work until lunch" because the project had been cancelled, with no warning.

If a "pink slip" is the sign of doom, I've experienced doom throughout my entire career.

Now being self-employed, I'm "unemployed" most of the time. Have not had paying work for weeks.

Well that makes you one of he better prepared Peak oilers here. I on the other hand I worked thirty two years at the same government job and now that I am retired do the same work for other agencies in season ,at least while the Obama bucks last.

A lot of the population has been used to working five to ten years or more at the same job and our home buying and other life decisions have been adjusted to that fact. Take the primary bread winner with a mortgage, car payment and credit cards and give him a pink slip in a recession and he is immediately in a world of hurt and relying on family if he has any to save his house even before the unemployment checks run out. I have always been bemused by yupi types making six figures that have spent and leveraged it all on the Mcmansion and Beamer and are really only a paycheck or two from bankruptcy. Even two income families are so leveraged that the loss of either income can put them under.
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Re: Imminent abyss aproacheth

Unread postby Ludi » Tue 27 Apr 2010, 09:41:43

And yet most people would see my way of life as very precarious and insecure. 8O But I have a mortal terror of debt and avoid it like the plague (we do have a small mortgage, however).

But I also know that debt has become a way of life for most Americans. :(
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