[Revi]

We've known this for years. I would be surprised if it didn't happpen. 2012 seems to be the year that peak oil really hits.

It's good to have a timeline.

[dinopello]

Everyone that makes predictions of this type should give a best case and a worst case. That way we can look back and if the actual is better than the best case or worse than the worst case then you suck at predicting and shouldn't do it anymore.

[shortonsense]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Geodesic', ' ')What qualifies you as an expert? Aside from a major in sneering what exactly is your analytical background?

[shortonsense]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'W')e've known this for years.

[AirlinePilot]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', 'M')aybe this time everyone will notice rather than just us? Or maybe we'll be doing this all over again another 7 years after THAT peak?

[vtsnowedin]

I see the graph as being false on its face due to the demand line increasing above supply. In reality the demand line will always be very nearly at or below supply kept there by fluctuating prices. This graph shows growth in demand on a BAU basis and demand will not be business as usual with oil going from one hundred to two hundred then past three hundred dollars per barrel. It also shows a lack of imagination about what will happen to the supply of unconventional fuels when the peak is well past. Not that any of those top three categories can or will replace the lost oil supply but a steady flat line on them is not realistic ether.
There are many possibilities as to how the world will match total fuel demand to supply, some of them terrible to consider.
To start out small lets consider the bankruptcy of the US. federal government and the end of Social Security and welfare checks along with medicare and Obama care. Throw in $20 gas and heating oil and things get tight in a hurry.

[americandream]

And by that same token, one may well say that YOU are equally at liberty to dismiss anything that the poster has ever said which does not correspond with your particular belief system, configured as it apparently is on never ending growth into the next solar system.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Geodesic', ' ')What qualifies you as an expert? Aside from a major in sneering what exactly is your analytical background?

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'W')e've known this for years. I would be surprised if it didn't happen. 2012 seems to be the year that peak oil really hits.

[dolanbaker]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'W')e've known this for years. I would be surprised if it didn't happen. 2012 seems to be the year that peak oil really hits.

[shortonsense]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', 'M')aybe this time everyone will notice rather than just us? Or maybe we'll be doing this all over again another 7 years after THAT peak?

[shortonsense]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', 'A')nd by that same token, one may well say that YOU are equally at liberty to dismiss anything that the poster has ever said which does not correspond with your particular belief system, configured as it apparently is on never ending growth into the next solar system.

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '
')Actually, I built quite a nice spreadsheet a year or so back quantifying the exponential decline of crude on an energy basis, the current exponential growth of various types and sizes of renewables, even threw in a variable for the expected growth in demand over the next 40 years, and discovered that when balanced off against each other to meet overall demand, the replacement of all crude oil based energy was not only doable at current levels of crude decline and renewable growth, but we could actually even slow down our buildout of things like nukes and wind and PV and still achieve the same result.

[mos6507]

Isn't there a thread somewhere that asked the question of when we'll know when TS has HTF?

Barring a fast-crash, I think that would be a very personal call to make.

I think the recession has made it harder to really judge doom, because the downstream impact of the recession and looming dollar collapse is a pretty potent source of doom all by itself, something that can lead to peak-oil-doom style violence all by itself despite ready supplies of oil. The tea party movement, for instance, has the potential to spiral into domestic terrorism and guerilla warfare. We're seeing isolated incidents along those lines right now, but it could build enough momentum to generate a constant stream of incidents along the lines of what you see in the middle-east.

I expect the mid-term election to also be a bellweather. If the democrats suffer heavy losses, then it will indicate a see-saw-like shift back to the right, paving the way for an idiot like Palin to walk into the whitehouse in 2012. If you don't like Obama, wait until you have a continuation of neocon policy.

[shortonsense]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '
')It would be nice if you could post that spreadsheet, but I don't imagine you still have it.

[Geodesic]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Geodesic', ' ')What qualifies you as an expert? Aside from a major in sneering what exactly is your analytical background?

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', 'i')t will indicate a see-saw-like shift back to the right

[Cyrus]

Shortonsense what signs do you see that the transportation system is going electric? Where is this new production going to come from, and if you don't think it's coming, what do you believe is going to make up for those declines of existing fields. Also, all your factors decided how do you see the world in say 2030?

Also how the hell is the EIA, the DOE, and US military numbers peak oil mythology?

[americandream]

Precisely my point! Infinite growth into the next solar system.

Let's be clear, underlying your point of view is the expectation that given enough time, humankind will cross the margin from limits to limitlessness, potentiality wise. Amongst some of the ideas being touted are immortality, free energy, geo-engineering, space adventures in the far reaches of the known universe and other such crackpot schemes when the evidence all around us suggests that notwithstanding that one of these expectations might well be conquered, the sheer weight of capitalism's excess will ultimately work to render the immortalised, space hopping capitalist of tomorrow, subject to the limits of his excess.

That comment aside, if there are crude reserves that you are aware of over and above those that the market are apparently counting on, then a link rather than some long winded dissertation on the follies of the thrift might be useful.

As it is, I have nothing to go on other than my common sense which tells me that the American way of life into 6 billion does not go and never will and that the current crop of one billion lifers does not for an endless future of many billions more lifers make.

Elementary, Watson.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', 'A')nd by that same token, one may well say that YOU are equally at liberty to dismiss anything that the poster has ever said which does not correspond with your particular belief system, configured as it apparently is on never ending growth into the next solar system.

[shortonsense]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cyrus', 'S')hortonsense what signs do you see that the transportation system is going electric?

[shortonsense]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', '
')That comment aside, if there are crude reserves that you are aware of over and above those that the market are apparently counting on, then a link rather than some long winded dissertation on the follies of the thrift might be useful.