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Remains Insane

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Remains Insane

Unread postby Maddog78 » Mon 19 Apr 2010, 15:19:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dinopello', 'A') cheetah chases the gazelle because she is hungry and wants to catch it and eat it. The cheetah doesn't calculate the EROEI, it just feels its hunger. Over time though, if the cheetah hasn't figured out how to catch the gazelle using less energy than it gets from eating it, the cheetah will perish.



So this an example of an oilfield project proceeding because of a calculated positive EROEI conducted by the oil companies engineering team?

No wonder my posting here has dropped to nearly nil.
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Re: Remains Insane

Unread postby dinopello » Mon 19 Apr 2010, 15:27:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Maddog78', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dinopello', 'A') cheetah chases the gazelle because she is hungry and wants to catch it and eat it. The cheetah doesn't calculate the EROEI, it just feels its hunger. Over time though, if the cheetah hasn't figured out how to catch the gazelle using less energy than it gets from eating it, the cheetah will perish.



So this an example of an oilfield project proceeding because of a calculated positive EROEI conducted by the oil companies engineering team?


No.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Maddog78', 'N')o wonder my posting here has dropped to nearly nil.


Yes, the wonders never cease! Forum search says you have had 7 posts just today. Is that how oil engineers define nearly nil ?
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Re: Remains Insane

Unread postby TWilliam » Mon 19 Apr 2010, 22:37:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Maddog78', 'I')f the project theoretically can make a ROI, it goes ahead.

Which it won't, if it ends up costing more to get the oil out of the ground that what is earned when that oil is sold.

This argument is really getting dull. Ultimately when all is said and done, capital is nothing more than a PROXY for ENERGY. As such, Capital Return on Capital Invested (a.k.a. ROI) is synonymous with Energy Returned on Energy Invested. I don't give a fat flying f#ck what TERMS are used when the planners do their thing, it still amounts to the same thing.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he only thing that matters is, can it make money, period.

Exactly. Which is 100% synonymous with "will it net a greater amount of energy than is required to recover it?" Whether they THINK of it in those terms or not is absolutely irrelevant, so let's give it a rest already.
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Re: Remains Insane

Unread postby shortonsense » Mon 19 Apr 2010, 22:40:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TWilliam', ' ')As such, Capital Return on Capital Invested (a.k.a. ROI) is synonymous with Energy Returned on Energy Invested.


No. It isn't.
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Re: Remains Insane

Unread postby shortonsense » Tue 20 Apr 2010, 09:48:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '
')You asked for a reference, petroleum professional who studies eroei, net energy analysis.


No. You didn't.

No one gives a crap about what someone is "studying". Look at what nonsense you got away with in college.
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Re: Remains Insane

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Tue 20 Apr 2010, 10:11:21

Seems like an argument in semantics.
Strictly speaking each side is correct.
It is all about EROEI.
It is also all about ROI.
The difference is in exchange rates for energy.
Energy has long been unrealisticly cheap, especially in developed nations.
That is in the process of change.
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Re: Remains Insane

Unread postby Maddog78 » Tue 20 Apr 2010, 12:10:58

LOL.

What?

One chart ends where the other one begins.
If you're going to troll at least make it a bit believable.

Storage capacity was nearly 100% full and prices were dropping so therefore rigs should have kept drilling at the same rate?

LOL.
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Re: Remains Insane

Unread postby TWilliam » Tue 20 Apr 2010, 12:23:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TWilliam', ' ')As such, Capital Return on Capital Invested (a.k.a. ROI) is synonymous with Energy Returned on Energy Invested.


No. It isn't.

My, such brilliant analysis. Let me try!



Yes. It is.



Wow, cool...
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Re: Remains Insane

Unread postby Maddog78 » Tue 20 Apr 2010, 13:26:51

Keep making up numbers if it makes you happy.

I can do it, too.

99% of all people who live in treehouses in Northern Cal. are internet experts and are morons. The graphs prove it.

LOL.
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Re: Remains Insane

Unread postby AirlinePilot » Tue 20 Apr 2010, 16:00:07

Twilliam has it right, that's the bottom line. Over the long haul money gets created to do things based on growth. This money is expected to make a RETURN. When one of the largest reasons to create money becomes unable to grow anymore..guess what happens?

Twilliam,

I applaud you for distilling it succinctly and simply. Its all about the ability to grow or not to grow. At some point very soon, it will become common/mainstream knowledge. Thats when EROEI or ROI becomes the determining factor. We just haven't quite gotten there yet so the debate rages. Those who understand the meaning of plateauing/peaking resources(esp. Oil) understand what must happen. The creation of money depended upon the fact that they grow. We are seeing the paradigm change right in front of our eyes. Some choose to believe what they are seeing, others do not. The consequences are large and without rapid replacement in some sort of usable and grow-able resource our money system will ultimately fail.

How you choose the side with which you agree or disagree simply comes down to do you believe Oil can grow from where we are or not.
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Re: Remains Insane

Unread postby shortonsense » Tue 20 Apr 2010, 19:20:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Maddog78', 'L')OL.

What?

One chart ends where the other one begins.
If you're going to troll at least make it a bit believable.

Storage capacity was nearly 100% full and prices were dropping so therefore rigs should have kept drilling at the same rate?

LOL.


None are so blind as those who will not see Maddog. In his world, common sense, reality, historical fact, it just doesn't matter. Notice how his natural gas price chart was nominal prices, the guy doesn't even understand the present value of money, so trying to explain a PV10 to him would be like trying to teach a chimpanzee how to do differential equations, it always gets reduced to just how much poo he can throw at you.
Peak Oil Obfuscation Protocol 101: POOP101

Pretend the phrase, " None are so blind as those who will not see." only applies to everyone else.
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Re: Remains Insane

Unread postby shortonsense » Tue 20 Apr 2010, 19:21:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TWilliam', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TWilliam', ' ')As such, Capital Return on Capital Invested (a.k.a. ROI) is synonymous with Energy Returned on Energy Invested.


No. It isn't.

My, such brilliant analysis. Let me try!



Yes. It is.



Wow, cool...


My response was commiserate in length with what was necessary to point out the obvious.
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Re: Remains Insane

Unread postby TWilliam » Wed 21 Apr 2010, 02:55:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', 'c')ommon sense,

Which, interestingly, is frequently wrong...

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'r')eality,

Which our senses alone convey to our minds from... shall we say... a severely myopic perspective...

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'h')istorical fact

What's that disclaimer again? Oh yea... "Past performance does not guarantee future earnings."


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')y response was commiserate in length with what was necessary to point out the obvious.

Unh hunh...



[Oh, and thanks AP. Some things are just hard to miss I guess when one has adequate perspective. Difficult to see the forest tho' I suppose when one is engrossed in picking apart leaves... *shrug* ]
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Re: Remains Insane

Unread postby ian807 » Wed 21 Apr 2010, 17:33:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Maddog78', 'I') have made this post many times so I'm only going to repeat myself one more time.

I'm sure EROEI is a fine concept and makes sense in theory.
It probably is easy to calculate for nuclear or ethanol or even tar sands but it is nearly impossible to calculate with any accuracy for conventional onshore or offshore oil wells so therefore it is not taken into account when planning a project.

I have 30 years experience in the oil industry and have been involved in many domestic and international projects.
The term EROEI has never come up, not one single time in any relation whatsoever with any project.

If the project theoretically can make a ROI, it goes ahead.

Now it could well be that a bad EROEI is also a bad ROI project. I won't dispute that but EROEI is not used in the oil industry in planning or executing projects.
The only thing that matters is, can it make money, period.

What is your experience in planning oil field projects?
Can you show me a single project where an oil company has used EROEI?

I already know the answer to this since short has asked the question multiple times on this board and no one has ever produced a single example.

Last post from me on this issue.

I hate to point out something this obvious, but when EROEI approaches 1 to 1, we're done with oil as a major energy source.

I don't doubt that some little wells in Texas and California will be cranking out a few barrels a day 100 years from now to supply a niche chemical market or a fertilizer market or something, but we certainly won't be using it as transportation fuel.

At a certain point, however, there's no point, and certainly no money, in major oil exploration, refining or distribution as we do it today for transportation fuel.
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Re: Remains Insane

Unread postby davep » Wed 21 Apr 2010, 17:40:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ian807', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Maddog78', 'I') have made this post many times so I'm only going to repeat myself one more time.

I'm sure EROEI is a fine concept and makes sense in theory.
It probably is easy to calculate for nuclear or ethanol or even tar sands but it is nearly impossible to calculate with any accuracy for conventional onshore or offshore oil wells so therefore it is not taken into account when planning a project.

I have 30 years experience in the oil industry and have been involved in many domestic and international projects.
The term EROEI has never come up, not one single time in any relation whatsoever with any project.

If the project theoretically can make a ROI, it goes ahead.

Now it could well be that a bad EROEI is also a bad ROI project. I won't dispute that but EROEI is not used in the oil industry in planning or executing projects.
The only thing that matters is, can it make money, period.

What is your experience in planning oil field projects?
Can you show me a single project where an oil company has used EROEI?

I already know the answer to this since short has asked the question multiple times on this board and no one has ever produced a single example.

Last post from me on this issue.

I hate to point out something this obvious, but when EROEI approaches 1 to 1, we're done with oil as a major energy source.

I don't doubt that some little wells in Texas and California will be cranking out a few barrels a day 100 years from now to supply a niche chemical market or a fertilizer market or something, but we certainly won't be using it as transportation fuel.

At a certain point, however, there's no point, and certainly no money, in major oil exploration, refining or distribution as we do it today for transportation fuel.


If the energy used to extract the oil is cheaper, then it can theoretically continue due to the price differential, despite having an EROEI of less than one. But this will ensure that the input costs increase relative to oil over time (so making it cost prohibitive), and we'll be in big trouble anyway at that point.

However, on small-scale operations, such as on-farm ethanol plants, EROEI is irrelevant because the energy from ethanol can be so much more useful for certain applications than solar, beets and wood.
What we think, we become.
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Re: Remains Insane

Unread postby Ludi » Wed 21 Apr 2010, 18:16:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('davep', '
')However, on small-scale operations, such as on-farm ethanol plants, EROEI is irrelevant because the energy from ethanol can be so much more useful for certain applications than solar, beets and wood.



But I guess I wonder if the farmer would invest his time and energy on ethanol if he can still buy oil or gas for $$, even if expensive. EROI is important even on the farm, otherwise we would see farmers producing more of their own energy, which we currently don't. As far as I know, nobody here on po.com produces their own ethanol or wood gas, not even as an enthusiast, forget about actually needing it on the farm.

Happy to be proven wrong, but I've not seen a single "how I'm producing my own ethanol or wood gas" thread in the Planning forum.
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