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THE Middle Class Thread (merged)

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General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.
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Re: How the Middle Class Slowly Evaporated in the Last 40 Years

Unread postby Ludi » Sat 27 Mar 2010, 19:46:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sixstrings', '
')
Nah, wouldn't work -- they'd either replace us with a Mexican or Indian, or figure out we weren't necessary anyway. ;) Jobless recovery! Rally on!



There's only a handful of people in the world who do what I do for a living. They might miss me.... or they might not! 8O
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Re: How the Middle Class Slowly Evaporated in the Last 40 Years

Unread postby mos6507 » Sat 27 Mar 2010, 22:08:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sixstrings', '
')there will come a day when because of automation, computer tech, and robotics we LITERALLY will not have enough jobs for humans to do. This coming productivity-caused job crisis can only be solved by some kind of redistribution of wealth.


Isn't that a rather singularitarian (I hate that word, it's a tongue-twister) view of the future?

You really think we're going to have MORE automation rather than at least some backsliding in technology post-peak?
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Re: How the Middle Class Slowly Evaporated in the Last 40 Years

Unread postby mos6507 » Sat 27 Mar 2010, 22:12:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Loki', '
').the pro-overpopulation types...


There is no such thing as "pro-overpopulation". Those who oppose population control don't think there even is a population problem. In fact, they have their own flawed logic why population = economic growth (see the Al Bartlett lecture for more on this topic). These people are not making a conscious decision to draw-down aquifers and increase pollution. They simply don't see the downside of population growth, just as the vast majority of the general public doesn't.
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Re: How the Middle Class Slowly Evaporated in the Last 40 Years

Unread postby Sixstrings » Sat 27 Mar 2010, 23:12:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', 'Y')ou really think we're going to have MORE automation rather than at least some backsliding in technology post-peak?


Well Mos, it's really one or the other. Either we'll see Peak Oil Doom or we'll see continuation of business as usual. Robotic labor really is the next big thing, it's as sure as the doubling and redoubling of computer processing speed has proven to be. The only thing that could stop this inevitability would be a peak oil collapse.

I'm on the fence as to which outcome we're headed for, as it would take utter Megadoom to stop the computer tech juggernaut. Any milder version of peak oil consequences would just encourage technological growth (i.e. it takes less energy to do things over the Internet than to have 350 million people driving around running errands).

In short, the future may look a lot more like a techno-dystopian sci-fi novel than a "World Made By Hand."
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Re: How the Middle Class Slowly Evaporated in the Last 40 Years

Unread postby Keith_McClary » Sun 28 Mar 2010, 00:35:04

Canada gets a lot of Chinese and south Asian immigrants. 80% of their kids go to university and 18% to community colleges, etc. (I don't know what the remaining 2% of slackers do - perhaps take over the family business)

For white males it's 30%.
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Re: How the Middle Class Slowly Evaporated in the Last 40 Years

Unread postby Pretorian » Sun 28 Mar 2010, 02:47:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mcgowanjm', 'I') can tell you exactly how. The Bottom 90% were given no
raises with concurrent inflation.

The Bottom 90% were not able to take advantage of Interest rate rise to 14% in 1981.

The Bottom 90% were given pensions, 401K's, and loans in lieu of raises from then on.

All to be /are being defaulted on now. As the only thing of worth
they now own, their home and it's mortgage is being financially forced underwater. And no bailout for them.

bush43 wipes his hands on the shirt of a POTUS.

Imagine what bush43 and his Top 50 000 think of you.

Slaves.



Slaves? Being a slave suggests that you are doing something that is worth feeding you, clothing you, sheltering you, protecting you. Most Americans do not do anything of value. I cant think of any nation in any historic period that had as many non-productive members of sociaty as USA today. You are obviously not slaves. You are just regular plebeans--- free bread and circuses type of a crowd.
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Re: How the Middle Class Slowly Evaporated in the Last 40 Years

Unread postby Sixstrings » Mon 29 Mar 2010, 02:00:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Loki', '[')b]Frankly, what you're arguing above is a bit cornucopian. What have you done with the real Sixstrings!?!? :lol:

I think it's optimistic to assume that we'll be on the same efficiency trajectory as we've been on for the last 50+ years. On the contrary, we may very well see MORE human labor required to do the same work (think field laborers vs. tractors). At least if peak oil and climate change turn out to be as nasty as I think they will.


Well.. the truth is that I'm about 70% sold on Peak Oil Doom, with 30% odds of mostly business as usual and "they'll figure something out." I can't get past that 30% doubt because I'm hesitant to underestimate the power of market forces (necessity is the mother of invention). If I were 100% sold on peak oil I wouldn't even be on this forum, I would have accepted it and found something new to be interested in. It's the uncertainty that keeps me hooked. :lol: Oh never mind, I guess I'd still be here bitching about globalism and the economy.

As to the likely efficiency trajectory.. I can see where you're coming from, since a lot of natural resources (including water) go into the production of a microchip. So you could make the case that a breakdown of the global supply chain would be the deathknell of Moore's law:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')img]http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/0/00/Transistor_Count_and_Moore%27s_Law_-_2008.svg/350px-Transistor_Count_and_Moore%27s_Law_-_2008.svg.png[/img]http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore's_law


But.. what I keep wondering about is the fact that every doubling that happens under Moore's law probably has an equally exponential impact on efficiency. So even though processors require a lot of natural resources, these may be more than offset by the gains in efficiency. The efficiencies achieved here are incredible, you're talking millions doing their own taxes now rather than providing employment for tax preparers, people renting movies through Internet-ready TV's and blu rays (putting video stores out of business), email reducing postal demand (I think USPS just announced they're cutting back to 5 days per week), the list just goes on and on.

And it may be a crap job, but localized customer service used to employee a lot of people. Then they went to call centers, and there was huge efficiency gained from that centralization. Thanks to the Internet, further efficiency was gained (lower labor cost) by moving a lot of this work to India. Then the call centers added software voice-recognition, so that they didn't have to pay people at all (Indian or American). Now you can say that somebody had to write the software, but the thing is it takes less people to write software than it does to handle hundreds of millions of customer service calls.

Are you getting my drift here? Greater efficiency may create economic growth, but IMHO at the upper reaches of the spectrum it destroys more jobs than it creates. But on the positive side, greater efficiency is probably a net energy gain since you have fewer and fewer people required to provide a service. So when you consider the reality of Moore's Law, and then you look at what the Japanese are doing with the robot receptionists and robot nursing assistants, the writing on the wall gets pretty clear. Think about it, if they've developed a robot nurse then how far away are we from completely automated farms?

I guess what would be interesting to know is whether the average American drove more or less than in, say, 1980. It would be interesting to compare how much energy we use today (per capita) versus a time when we had moved to suburbs but didn't yet have all the consumer convenience and factory automation.
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Re: How the Middle Class Slowly Evaporated in the Last 40 Years

Unread postby Ludi » Mon 29 Mar 2010, 07:35:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sixstrings', '
')In short, the future may look a lot more like a techno-dystopian sci-fi novel than a "World Made By Hand."



Not sure what these robots would be making stuff for, since with no jobs folks won't have any money to buy things. :?:

I doubt there's some benevolent robot-master planning to have robots do all our work for free so we can spend our time in enjoyable leisure pursuits and Art, while being supported by our loving robot friends.
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Re: How the Middle Class Slowly Evaporated in the Last 40 Years

Unread postby mcgowanjm » Mon 29 Mar 2010, 09:33:27

^
^
^
I--------The above is insane.

Why are we even talking about robots. So the
rest of us 9 Billion can take a lifelong vacation?

:twisted: 8O 8)

Dmitry Orlov:
Yes, and I can do that because I am a little bit of an outsider. I have had several careers. I have worked for various companies and I am still working for a few here, so I am part of the system but also I have been able to stand apart from it.

Now, projecting it back to the Soviet Union, say it’s 1987 or so and you are a Communist party member, so your opinion actually matters as opposed to the rest of the population. Would you say that the Soviet Union will collapse? Well, no, because you would probably be expelled from the Communist party for saying that. So you wouldn’t say that.

And so the same thing is happening here, where peoples’ paychecks depend on them not seeing certain things, because seeing them would be too painful, because if they saw them they still wouldn’t be able to say anything about it. And that goes for a lot of people.
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Re: How the Middle Class Slowly Evaporated in the Last 40 Years

Unread postby mcgowanjm » Mon 29 Mar 2010, 09:34:55

Unless these robots can do a better job of raising
food and pollinating crops.

Honeybee die off still ongoing. IT's the Environment
causing them AIDS.

OMG, they actually are:

As farmers battle weeds 'conventionally,' the chemical treadmill ...
Jul 20, 2009 ... In addition to the Bayer mashup, Monsanto is also combining insecticide .... I think robotics have great application in organic farming. ...
www.grist.org/.../2009-07-20-farmers-ba ... ill-speeds
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Re: How the Middle Class Slowly Evaporated in the Last 40 Years

Unread postby Ludi » Mon 29 Mar 2010, 12:26:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mcgowanjm', 'U')nless these robots can do a better job of raising
food and pollinating crops.


We don't need bees! Nanobots will fly around and do the pollinating!
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Re: How the Middle Class Slowly Evaporated in the Last 40 Years

Unread postby Loki » Mon 29 Mar 2010, 14:12:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'I') doubt there's some benevolent robot-master planning to have robots do all our work for free so we can spend our time in enjoyable leisure pursuits and Art, while being supported by our loving robot friends.

Oh, they won't be benevolent....

Image
A garden will make your rations go further.
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Re: How the Middle Class Slowly Evaporated in the Last 40 Years

Unread postby Pretorian » Mon 29 Mar 2010, 21:03:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sixstrings', '
')In short, the future may look a lot more like a techno-dystopian sci-fi novel than a "World Made By Hand."



Not sure what these robots would be making stuff for, since with no jobs folks won't have any money to buy things. :?:

I doubt there's some benevolent robot-master planning to have robots do all our work for free so we can spend our time in enjoyable leisure pursuits and Art, while being supported by our loving robot friends.



There are what, 1 million farmers in USA? There are probably 3 million full-time jobs in the field tops. I would guess another 5-6 million drives, mines, pumps, hammers, ets to keep the racket going. Yet they feed 400-500-600 million people. Question, what do these 497 000 000 people actually do to compensate these workers? What kind of so precious services and goods farmers get from you that is worth feeding you for a year? So here we already have an interesting situation--- everybody, every last toothless mouth eats, and generally eats aplenty , but not everybody is actually doing something to pay for it.
How is this any different from robots doing all that for free some time later in the future?
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Re: How the Middle Class Slowly Evaporated in the Last 40 Years

Unread postby Ibon » Mon 29 Mar 2010, 22:11:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mcgowanjm', 'U')nless these robots can do a better job of raising
food and pollinating crops.


We don't need bees! Nanobots will fly around and do the pollinating!


What we need is Nano Bot flies. You know those bot flies that lay their eggs in the epidermis of mammals like caribou, zebras and yes the greatest current excess of mammalian biomass on the planet....the Kudzu Ape!

Bring em on. Made of titanium whose little maggots have tiny little razor sharp scissors to mine through flesh.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_botfly
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Re: How the Middle Class Slowly Evaporated in the Last 40 Years

Unread postby Sixstrings » Tue 30 Mar 2010, 08:13:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mcgowanjm', '^')
^
^
I--------The above is insane.

Why are we even talking about robots. So the
rest of us 9 Billion can take a lifelong vacation?

:twisted: 8O 8)


Companies aren't attracted to automation so that people can just take lifelong vacations, companies like automation because it's incredibly profitable. A machine and/or computer will always be vastly more productive and cheaper than human labor, this has been the primary economic force since the the beginning of the industrial revolution.

All that works swell up until some point in the future, when extreme levels of productivity ends up destroying the customer base. But business will push it right to that point and then over the edge, and that's when we'll have to have income redistribution to support our excess labor. This isn't fantasyland you know, we do this now with China (up until recently anyhow), wherein China loans us money so that we can afford to buy their products. That's income redistribution, call it it communist if you want but the China trade couldn't have worked otherwise. The only catch to the scheme is that, in theory at least, we have to pay the Chinese back some day.

Getting back to robots.. everyone laughs at me when I bring this up, and I just don't understand why. I'm thinking long-term here, guys. It's hard to believe now, but there was a time back when I was selling cell phones that I had to actually be a salesman and convince people WHY they might want one. My best pitch was roadside emergencies. The most common objection I'd get was "I don't need a phone for business so I'd never use it." And then the teenager craze over beepers happened and then that sort of spilled over to the cellphones (helped along by better phones, networks and prices).

So all those same people who thought a cellphone was silly now don't even have a landline. You can call robots "insane" if you like, but I guess you're just assuming advancement in this field stops right here today and will never ever go any further, so all robots will ever do is what they do now -- Mars exploration, manufacturing, predator drones, and roombas.

If you're a peaker you're likely assuming that we'll be devolving into a "world made by hand." I'm a peaker too, but I'm just just not convinced about the return to Amish country living. In my own lifetime, tech has gotten nothing but cheaper and more productive -- I cannot deny that. It would take nothing short of utter catastrophic magadoom to halt the progress of technology.

EDIT: Reading back over this, I can see how it sounds cornucopian. I guess I'm thinking more about advances in software, processing and then robotics than traditional industry. What this comes down to is two views of peak oil doom, one where the whole world collapses to the dark ages and another where there are a few beacons of light where progress continues. But anyhow for the sake of argument this whole discussion is ASSUMING we're wrong about peak oil doom and that BAU continues.

Oh, and we're talking about robots because we're talking about the impoverishment of the middle class, what's causing it, and what will continue to cause it -- automation and increasing productivity (whether through technology or cheap foreign labor).
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Re: How the Middle Class Slowly Evaporated in the Last 40 Years

Unread postby Ludi » Tue 30 Mar 2010, 16:27:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sixstrings', '
')Companies aren't attracted to automation so that people can just take lifelong vacations, companies like automation because it's incredibly profitable.



It's only profitable if you have a market. If you replace all the workers with robots you won't have any one to buy anything. Not sure why I had to explain that. :|
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Re: How the Middle Class Slowly Evaporated in the Last 40 Years

Unread postby vaseline2008 » Tue 30 Mar 2010, 16:31:48

Speaking of robots....

Sex Robots anyone? Only U$7,000

Warning, the site is deemed suitable for those 18 years old and older:
http://www.truecompanion.com/
I'd rather be the killer than the victim.
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Re: How the Middle Class Slowly Evaporated in the Last 40 Years

Unread postby WildRose » Wed 31 Mar 2010, 14:21:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sixstrings', '
')Companies aren't attracted to automation so that people can just take lifelong vacations, companies like automation because it's incredibly profitable.



It's only profitable if you have a market. If you replace all the workers with robots you won't have any one to buy anything. Not sure why I had to explain that. :|



It's funny, but corporations don't seem to understand that, they're so interested in their bottom line. I'm thinking of all the stores moving to automated checkouts, banks trying to encourage us to do only on-line banking, voice software that could, in a few years, wipe out thousands of court reporter and transcription jobs, etc. Like you, I wonder who's going to buy stuff when so many are unemployed, and thus how these corporations will stay afloat. But I say, bring it on, the greedy companies can engineer their own demise. :twisted:
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Re: How the Middle Class Slowly Evaporated in the Last 40 Years

Unread postby Tyler_JC » Wed 31 Mar 2010, 14:55:18

People have been making the argument that productivity is bad for centuries and they've been wrong every single time.

Image

Think of how many millions of jobs exist today that weren't even dreamed of by our parents generation.

Making the American economy less productivity would NOT increase employment. If we banned ATMs, would the gains to bank employees offset the costs to everyone else? If we banned the sale of slice bread would the gains to bakers offset the losses to everyone else?
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Re: How the Middle Class Slowly Evaporated in the Last 40 Years

Unread postby Sixstrings » Wed 31 Mar 2010, 19:34:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('WildRose', 'I')t's funny, but corporations don't seem to understand that, they're so interested in their bottom line. I'm thinking of all the stores moving to automated checkouts, banks trying to encourage us to do only on-line banking, voice software that could, in a few years, wipe out thousands of court reporter and transcription jobs, etc. Like you, I wonder who's going to buy stuff when so many are unemployed, and thus how these corporations will stay afloat. But I say, bring it on, the greedy companies can engineer their own demise. :twisted:


Thanks for posting WildRose, good to know somebody out there shares some of my concerns.
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