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Improving Peak Oil Credibility

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Improving Peak Oil Credibility

Postby shortonsense » Wed 24 Mar 2010, 21:10:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '
')Perhaps it is because this site has more of an even balance than the others?
Why don't you go over to Theoildrum.com and tell them just how unbalanced they are.


A) This thread isn't about a particular sites perspective on the overall topic
B) Read first, that way you won't make it so easy to insult your alma mater
C) I do post at the Oildrum
D) Their problem isn't the balance but the format, which has nothing to do with the topic at hand.
under what name?


Why, you thinking about changing profession from troll to stalker?
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Re: Improving Peak Oil Credibility

Postby Ludi » Wed 24 Mar 2010, 21:29:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '
')
Why, you thinking about changing profession from troll to stalker?



I think we should all stalk you as a sort of fanclub. [smilie=love7.gif]
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Re: Improving Peak Oil Credibility

Postby Ludi » Wed 24 Mar 2010, 21:37:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'W')ow! Forging new bonds for the coming millenia. How inclusive :razz:



It's springtime and love is in the air. [smilie=love4.gif]
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Re: Improving Peak Oil Credibility

Postby mos6507 » Wed 24 Mar 2010, 21:47:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Loki', '
') Do you honestly think the .gov or Joe Sixpack are going to do squat about PO until their backs are against the wall?


Because some of us realize that we can't completely decouple our fate from J6P. If the lemmings go over the cliff, they will likely drag us down with them one way or another. Ultimately, trying to save others is just an indirect way of saving ourselves.
Last edited by mos6507 on Wed 24 Mar 2010, 21:48:16, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Improving Peak Oil Credibility

Postby JJ » Wed 24 Mar 2010, 21:47:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Loki', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AAA', 's')nip

Lighten up Francis, this is the internet, grow some skin.

But so as not to further hijack this thread, maybe you can riddle me this. What does it matter if the concept of peak oil has "credibility" or not?

There's a degree of evangelicalism amongst peakers, some feel the need to "spread the word." Why? Do you honestly think the .gov or Joe Sixpack are going to do squat about PO until their backs are against the wall?



how true. A PO believing co-worker asked me exactly that. "Why would you want to tell other people about it?"
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Re: Improving Peak Oil Credibility

Postby Loki » Wed 24 Mar 2010, 23:05:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Loki', '
') Do you honestly think the .gov or Joe Sixpack are going to do squat about PO until their backs are against the wall?


Because some of us realize that we can't completely decouple our fate from J6P. If the lemmings go over the cliff, they will likely drag us down with them one way or another. Ultimately, trying to save others is just an indirect way of saving ourselves.


I'm hardly suffering under the delusion that my fate is decoupled from the average American's. I am an average American. I just don't think it's a pragmatic use of my time to preach about peak oil. In meat space I prefer to talk about gardening, or tree work, or beer, or guns, or trucks, or movies.

We will make major changes in our society when forced to by circumstances, and not a second before that. As I said in my first post, peak oil is a simple scientific fact, it will happen whether we believe in it or not. The only question is the timing.

But if evangelism floats your boat, go for it. Awkward conversations can be fun, too.
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Re: Improving Peak Oil Credibility

Postby mos6507 » Wed 24 Mar 2010, 23:43:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Loki', '
')We will make major changes in our society when forced to by circumstances


And how effective will a deathbed conversion be?
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Re: Improving Peak Oil Credibility

Postby Loki » Thu 25 Mar 2010, 00:28:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Loki', '
')We will make major changes in our society when forced to by circumstances


And how effective will a deathbed conversion be?


Probably not very. But I'm a pessimist :)
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Re: Improving Peak Oil Credibility

Postby sulayman » Thu 25 Mar 2010, 10:08:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Loki', '
')We will make major changes in our society when forced to by circumstances, and not a second before that. As I said in my first post, peak oil is a simple scientific fact, it will happen whether we believe in it or not. The only question is the timing.


Ignorance is bliss. It is too uncomfortable for most people to consider reality until it slaps them hard in the face.
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Re: Improving Peak Oil Credibility

Postby mcgowanjm » Thu 25 Mar 2010, 10:23:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '8')
The idea of collapse is not new, indeed its mythic spectre has probably always been a feature of civilisations8. In 1972, the famous Limits to Growth argued that economic growth could not continue indefinitely in a world of finite resources and limited sink capacity for our waste. It deployed simple scenarios and early examples of systems modeling to argue that a continuation of business-as-usual would lead to a limit to global economic growth, and thereafter a long slow decline9. Later, authors were more explicit about collapse. They cited ecological constraints as a cause, but also the interaction between the structural, functional, institutional, and behavioral conditions of society. Among the most important studies are Overshoot by William Catton, and The Collapse of Complex Societies by Joseph Tainter10,11. In recent years the genre has caught the attention of the reading public with the works of Jared Diamond, Richard Heinberg and others12,13,14,15,16. The web-based 'think-tank', The Oil Drum ( :twisted: 8) MY Edit-And even the OilDrum couldn't take 'We're acting just like Yeast Idea. But they are starting to come around I hear. Like Gail the Actuary alerted me via Carolyn Baker to
Feasta/TippingPoint :-D 8) has often had lively and informed debates on these issues.17


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TippingPointFeasta', '
')To the public and to the media, anyone who proclaims “the end of the world is nigh” is likely to be seen as deluded or quite mad (that is not what is being claimed here). The dominant social narrative soon re-asserts itself with re-assuring nods towards our collective genius, technology, the shibboleths of our time, or the minor history of our collective wisdom. The intuitive retort that there must be „a solution‟, or facile expressions of the need for „hope‟ represent a failure to understand the imminent material reality of our own predicament.
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Re: Improving Peak Oil Credibility

Postby AAA » Thu 25 Mar 2010, 11:32:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JJ', '
')how true. A PO believing co-worker asked me exactly that. "Why would you want to tell other people about it?"


That is the equivalent to saying you saw your neighbor standing in the railroad tracks wearing an ipod and then you saw a train coming...you would not tap him on the shoulder and show him the train.
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Re: Improving Peak Oil Credibility

Postby AAA » Thu 25 Mar 2010, 11:43:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Loki', '
')But if evangelism floats your boat, go for it. Awkward conversations can be fun, too.


I have talked about peak oil to well over a 100 different people and published a peak oil article for an oil industry magazine that has around 17,000 subscribers.

I have never had an awkward conversation.

The reason I have had no awkward conversations is because I am a regular person, hardworker, and people know a lot about me. I'm not some flaky, freelance organic gardener that goes around telling people how bad mining and oil production is for our earth. Maybe the people you are around are just awkward.
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Re: Improving Peak Oil Credibility

Postby seahorse2 » Thu 25 Mar 2010, 12:20:24

Haven't read any of the posts but those on the first page. I agree that the topic of PO on PO sites gets mired and muddied in all kinds of tangents loosely connected with resource depletion or some not at all connected (moon landings).

(1) I agree that many of these topics do nothing to help educate people about energy issues. Moon landings, for example, have no place in the debate.

(2) I understand how oil and energy issues get off on political tangents at least concerning foreign policy. Michael Klare has written several good books on the politics of resource depletion. I personally agree that resource depletion takes a political solution (since it involves foreign policy) and since changing energy policy or direction of the market requires regulation (opening places for drilling) and tax incentives. Thus, I don't think it is possible to eliminate the political issues from the debate, although there are many issues which are so tangential that they begin to side track from the argument. Global warming for example. If PO pessimists are correct, the resource depletion will take care of any man created problem. I guess people are worried about moving to coal etc.

(3) I think there is always a place for people to learn to be self-reliant on these sites and in fact not sure a site can be operated without offering people some insight as to changes they can make in their individual lives. Becoming energy aware and planning for a future includes not only investments for those with money to invest, but also requires people to try to change their behavior and become more energy efficient. Thus, if people want to garden, have solar ovens, etc., these things are helpful for people that want to make changes that impact their lives now.

(4) Personally, I don't think societies are capable of acting collectively to resolve resource limits issues, thus "the market" forces change through economic destruction. I wish that weren't the case, but unfortunately, it is. Most PO pessimists have predicted economic hardship (not collapse) based on resource limits, including Campbell, Hirsch, etc.
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Re: Improving Peak Oil Credibility

Postby AAA » Thu 25 Mar 2010, 13:10:11

One thing that worries me is the loss of key active members and not being able to attract and retain new active members. Many members are getting tired of the endless nonsense that is 90% of po.com New members come seeking information and solutions but quickly realize peak oil related topics are a very small percentage amongst a lot of junk topics or junk posts that get good topics off course.

I took a break for several months because things were getting stupid. When I returned many of the key active members were gone and the posts had deteriorated even more rapidly. A few new faces showed up but things are worse than before. Some even left and started their own forums because things were just out of hand here.

Many people here are all talk. A few are actually furthering their knowledge of peak oil, “spreading the message”, and preparing themselves for a post-peak world. Others are just here to rant and rave on whatever is on their mind, peak oil related or not. It doesn’t matter to many.
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Re: Improving Peak Oil Credibility

Postby Loki » Thu 25 Mar 2010, 13:21:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AAA', 'L')ies and more lies


Look who still has sand in his mangina. You're having an awkward conversation about PO right now, dimwit. Please stop lying about your "credentials," you're not impressing anyone.

IMHO, global warming denialists are by far the biggest crackpots discrediting the concept of peak oil. Whenever I hear denialist nonsense I immediately dismiss the person as an intellectually dishonest, anti-environmental ideologue. It's really a shame that this site is infested with so many of them. There's nothing admirable about willful stupidity.
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Re: Improving Peak Oil Credibility

Postby AAA » Thu 25 Mar 2010, 13:30:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Loki', ' ')Please stop lying about your "credentials," you're not impressing anyone.


What have you done to help build credibility for peak oil?
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Re: Improving Peak Oil Credibility

Postby mos6507 » Thu 25 Mar 2010, 13:41:15

Let's not attribute undue significance to this site due to its domain. When this site was founded, perhaps it could claim to have a bigger slice of the pie, but these days there are so many directions in which people are bombarded with peak oil information, from books to documentaries to (yes, even MSM) news articles, to Transition booths at energy or farming fairs. This site could go offline tomorrow along with LATOC and TOD and there would still be plenty of avenues for people to learn about peak oil and limits to growth.

So the whole notion of the utility of a site like this (or even The Oil Drum) is questionable. The growing consensus is that "the converted" should log off of the damn internet and work with their neighbors. That's what Heinberg, Greer, Astyk, and just about everyone else are harping on about lately. And maybe if the neighbors just can't be reached, then move to a place where the people are more in tune with the message, and then get on with it.

Guess what, a lot of people, including those organic farmers you deride, are doing just that. They aren't wasting their time in flamewars with shorty and company. They are getting busy.

This site is kind of the purgatory for doomers who for whatever reason can't or won't find local support networks. It is not and will never be the driving force of peak-dom or social change. Few of the transition towners I've met in my travels even lurk here.

I lowered my expectations for this site some time ago. It's a glorified chatroom with a handful of weirdos who are loosely bound together with the common theme of peak oil, and yet who diverge so strongly on their underlying ideologies that they can't stop lunging at each other's throats. That's all it is.

The problem is I think some people are still in a 2004 sort of mindset of thinking about doom in a strictly theoretical/abstract context, for the purpose of future-prediction, and therefore they are merely analyzing the data rather than actually acting. That is the context in which this site was founded, or The Oil Drum, and we're in the age of consequences now. Make a plan and work it, as Pops says.
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Re: Improving Peak Oil Credibility

Postby mos6507 » Thu 25 Mar 2010, 13:47:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AAA', '
')preparing themselves for a post-peak world.


In what way is continuing to work in the oil industry preparing to live in a post-peak world? Your idea of peak-oil mitigation is what, all-hands-on-deck extracting unconventional and arctic oil? That's your idea of contributing to a better world?

Someone from the oil industry who plays a peak oil cassandra is both credible (in the sense that he has a good grasp of the industry data) and a raging hypocrite if he's pushing a "do as I say, not as I do" message about kicking the petroleum habit. It's one of the reasons I think twice about Matt Simmons, for instance, because he's found a way to both fearmonger about oil AND line his pockets via Simmons and Company. There is an element of conflict of interest there.

Those eccentrics who leave well-paying jobs in BAU in favor of something more akin to a world made by hand garner much more of my respect because they walk the walk.
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Re: Improving Peak Oil Credibility

Postby davep » Thu 25 Mar 2010, 13:54:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', 'L')et's not attribute undue significance to this site due to its domain. When this site was founded, perhaps it could claim to have a bigger slice of the pie, but these days there are so many directions in which people are bombarded with peak oil information, from books to documentaries to (yes, even MSM) news articles, to Transition booths at energy or farming fairs. This site could go offline tomorrow along with LATOC and TOD and there would still be plenty of avenues for people to learn about peak oil and limits to growth.

So the whole notion of the utility of a site like this (or even The Oil Drum) is questionable. The growing consensus is that "the converted" should log off of the damn internet and work with their neighbors. That's what Heinberg, Greer, Astyk, and just about everyone else are harping on about lately. And maybe if the neighbors just can't be reached, then move to a place where the people are more in tune with the message, and then get on with it.

Guess what, a lot of people, including those organic farmers you deride, are doing just that. They aren't wasting their time in flamewars with shorty and company. They are getting busy.

This site is kind of the purgatory for doomers who for whatever reason can't or won't find local support networks. It is not and will never be the driving force of peak-dom or social change. Few of the transition towners I've met in my travels even lurk here.

I lowered my expectations for this site some time ago. It's a glorified chatroom with a handful of weirdos who are loosely bound together with the common theme of peak oil, and yet who diverge so strongly on their underlying ideologies that they can't stop lunging at each other's throats. That's all it is.

The problem is I think some people are still in a 2004 sort of mindset of thinking about doom in a strictly theoretical/abstract context, for the purpose of future-prediction, and therefore they are merely analyzing the data rather than actually acting. That is the context in which this site was founded, or The Oil Drum, and we're in the age of consequences now. Make a plan and work it, as Pops says.


Good post.
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Re: Improving Peak Oil Credibility

Postby AAA » Thu 25 Mar 2010, 14:10:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AAA', '
')preparing themselves for a post-peak world.

In what way is continuing to work in the oil industry preparing to live in a post-peak world?


First I enjoy working and investing in oil. My family has been doing it over 60 years.

Second a lot of post-peak preps costs money. The oil industry pays very well. My salary jumped up over 30% from 2006 to 2008 when oil supplies became tight because companies were worried about losing employees to competition. As oil prices remain high and will go higher then companies will continue to compensate their employees to keep them from leaving and going to other companies. I plan to profit off this especially because so many baby boomers are beginning to retire out of the oil business.

I plan on retiring before I turn 40 years old and being able to live off interest/dividend income without touching the principal and enjoying my current income level. That takes money. My goal is to build a passive solar house at least 3,000 sqft and live totally off-grid using solar/wind. That costs a lot of money. I plan on hiring at least 2 people full-time for a year to help establish our homestead since I can’t do everything myself. That costs money. The list goes on and on and on and it all costs money
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