[AirlinePilot]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', 'T')he EV market has suffered since the 90s due to two technological transitions, lead-acid to NIMH (which Cobasys in part spoiled) and then to Lithium. It also suffered from gas being cheap that whole time except for the runup through the last half of the 2000s, only to drop back to record lows again. EVs really appeal to only two segments of the population. Those with money who really care about emissions (a small niche) and those who are desperate to cling to personal transport in a post-peak era (which cycles up and down with gas prices). This is not a recipe for a sustainable market, especially considering that most people now consider new car purchases of any kind an unneeded expenditure.

The idea that we can $buy$ our way via green consumerism into a post-peak utopia can only exist in a thriving economy, otherwise it's an avenue reserved only for the rich who really have little to worry about from peak oil anyway, at least the early stages.

Most people will be forced to just use less energy whether they like it or not. Right now it's cheaper to just keep a beater car (even one with bad gas mileage) on the road, vs. buy some plugin for $40K+ in the hopes of long-term savings.

[mos6507]

This is all part of the law of receding horizons. It's something I've been worried about ever since I first got into EVs. When GM first announced the Volt, me already being peak-aware, well, I thought to myself "This thing is gonna take 3 years to hit showrooms??? You know what, peak oil is gonna hit and then GM won't even be in business anymore to deliver the damn thing!"

I didn't think that GM would get itself a bailout and turn the Volt into basically a government-mandated project ala the VW "people's car".

But the recurring notion (which shorty alludes to) that "the market" will find a solution is obviously false. The market does not react fast enough. Once the economy tanks, consumers stop spending. This stifles innovation. Take it far enough down, and everybody's driving antique cars like in Cuba.



The frog has to boil in the pot before the market even figures out what to do, in which case it's too late. Techologies that are still in the lab are very unlikely to go all the way to mass production and commoditification before TSHTF.

[Newfie]

Please clarify something for me. It strikes me that there are two types of Transition Town philosophies.

Cornucopia TT - We need to change the way we live so that we can continue with the population we have and thus avert a die off.

Prepper TT - There will be a die off. We need to develop defensible and sustainable communities to survive.

??????????????????

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', 'P')lease clarify something for me. It strikes me that there are two types of Transition Town philosophies.

Cornucopia TT - We need to change the way we live so that we can continue with the population we have and thus avert a die off.

Prepper TT - There will be a die off. We need to develop defensible and sustainable communities to survive.

[Revi]

Our Transition town is all about the defensive part of the movement. I think we need to beef up a kind of Farmwatch group and work on the reskilling, etc at the same time. I have gotten a cool reception for this, but there are some people around here that are beginning to understand what I'm talking about.

It will do no good to prepare a transition town and then lose it to crime and chaos. I think they have to go hand in hand. I have learned a lot about hardening a farming venture and I think that will be one of the things we'll talk about starting this Saturday at our maple syrup operation and woodlot.

We're doing a reskilling event there and we are going to talk about woodlot management, maple sugaring and how to defend the place. I have installed 2 camera systems, steel on the door, a bulletproof box and lexan on the windows.

It was hard at first to realize that we don't live in la-la land where there isn't any crime.

I talked to a bunch of other farmers who have been having trouble lately. One guy found that people had cut 10 of his apple trees and took the wood to a guy who uses it for smoking. He matched the wood to the stumps but couldn't catch the guy who did it. Time for some cameras.

There's a new kind of game camera that takes a pic and sends it to a sattelite which stores it in your
account. That would be the thing to have.

Anyway, some transition towns are working on defense.

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', '
')Anyway, some transition towns are working on defense.

[davep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', '
')Anyway, some transition towns are working on defense.

[mos6507]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '
')As far as I can tell, the Transition movement doesn't include "Prepper TT" at least not so far. Sustainable yes, defensible, no. Defense isn't mentioned, as far as I know. But mos has studied this a lot more than I have and will be able to give a more definitive answer.

[Serial_Worrier]

It's true we've nearly run out of the easy oil, the light sweet crude. What % we still pump is hardly enough to sustain our standard of living, so we're going after lower EROI oils like shale and tar sands.But it's the law of diminishing returns says that 85 million/barrels a day can't last much longer. We're in a for a BIG shock and most people will feel it at the gas pump and the collapse of JIT-delivery to groceries.

[shortonsense]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Serial_Worrier', 'I')t's true we've nearly run out of the easy oil, the light sweet crude. What % we still pump is hardly enough to sustain our standard of living, so we're going after lower EROI oils like shale and tar sands.But it's the law of diminishing returns says that 85 million/barrels a day can't last much longer. We're in a for a BIG shock and most people will feel it at the gas pump and the collapse of JIT-delivery to groceries.

[Cloud9]

We have short attention spans. Five years is a blink in the eye of father time. Patience youngsters, there is still time for your worst fears to be realized.