I was reading the massachusetts election thread. A Roubini article was quoted there. He thinks a total blockage will mean a repub. block on new taxes and a Dem. block on spending cuts leading to huge deficits and USD collapse.
I think trying to draw an exact parallel to Weimar is wrong. The idea is to ask where is the next World War coming from? Only USA, China, maybe Russia can be so aggressive but USA has best military. The more desperate USA becomes the less questions the people will place on the govt. against whatever crazy solutions. They will just rationalize it all away. Killing millions with nukes to get oil or whatever. Getting rid of evil enemies in China, etc. Why not? We are the good guys right? The nazis look bad or Napoleon, etc. because they lost their wars in the end. They did not write the history books. So maybe this ends good for the USA if they can blow up more people first with whichever allies they have. from the European/Japanese lap dog mind set to US Military policy seams to make a clear line of defense against Russia and China and some Arabs/Iranians. Now a warm/Cold war led with economic means or by proxy wars over decades will maybe be ended and unlimited global war like in WWII.
A complete collapse of the system depends on state bankruptcy like in Weimar Germany leading to an extremist govt. which comes to power with an open agenda. Bush was not so open and evil, it just all semed to turn out like that as a revenge attack to get things under control against terrorism combined with neocons plans to conquer the world. The next generation of Repub extremists will be much more blunt, stupid, brutal and merciless. A million here, a million there and soon it's real body counts. With so many people in the world what's a few more dead bodies. Recent speculation goes that th banksters and others are doing what they are doing as they know the game is up and they have to take what they can as long as the game is still going. If the military/population thinks the same way (due to PO,etc. then only 10% of population can remain on earth,etc.) then hundreds of millions or billions of deaths is agood thing if it means our side has a better chance of survival. This logic is what follows in a forced situation where democracy and capitalism by rules fails catastrophically. This is the great danger. USA plays global policeman with NATO for post WWII world. The worst danger is that USA "goes over to the dark side" believing as Bush did or as Goldman Sachs believes, that they "are doing God's work".
PeakOil is You
THE Weimar Thread (merged)
Re: 2010 midterm elections parallels to Weimar republic
by galacticsurfer » Wed 20 Jan 2010, 17:39:33
"The horror, the horror"
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Re: United States of America 2009 and Weimar Germany 1923
by copious.abundance » Sat 27 Feb 2010, 01:09:49
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kmann', ' ') This is a manufactured similitude - it doesn't hold water.
No? Don't think we will see massive hyperinflation, eh?Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: United States of America 2009 and Weimar Germany 1923
by TheDude » Sat 27 Feb 2010, 02:16:03
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'W')ell, I'm still waiting. When do we get that hyperinflation?
Maybe the deflationists are correct?New from John Mauldin: Why We Don't Have Hyperinflation Even Though The Fed Has Printed $1 Trillion
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')nd that is what has happened. And all those mortgage bonds and other assets the Federal Reserve has purchased? They have been put right back into the Fed by the banks. There has been no money multiplier. In fact, the money multiplier, as measured by the ratio of MO to M1 growth is at its lowest level ever. Look at the graph below:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hat this graph shows, astonishingly, is that a dollar added to the monetary base now has a NEGATIVE multiplier effect. Without showing yet another chart, bank lending has fallen percentagewise the most in 67 years. The actual amount of bank loans is falling each and every quarter, with no signs of a bottom. Consumers are reducing their debt and leverage. Bank loans are being written off at staggering rates. Over 700 banks (I think that is the figure I saw) are officially on watch by the FDIC, with more banks being closed each week.
There is at least $300-400 billion in losses on commercial real estate waiting to be written down. Housing foreclosures are rising and hundreds of billions have yet to be written off. As more families fall into unemployment or underemployment, there will be more writedowns. Is it any wonder that banks are having to shore up their balance sheets and make fewer loans?
With capacity utilization just off all-time lows, why should we expect businesses to borrow to increase capacity? Inventory levels are much lower than two years ago. Businesses no longer need to finance as much inventory. They simply need less.
Cogito, ergo non satis bibivi
And let me tell you something: I dig your work.
And let me tell you something: I dig your work.
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