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Peak Oil: Looking for the Wrong Symptoms?

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.
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Re: Peak Oil: Looking for the Wrong Symptoms?

Unread postby AirlinePilot » Sat 20 Feb 2010, 09:59:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', 'W')here do I begin. You realize that CA peaked in Nov 1985 and in Feb '09 was at 52% of its peak production, right? Or that CA oil is heavy in the first place? Do some basic homework before pontificating. Anything, even the Wiki on petroleum.

Image



I dont know how someone can honestly and objectively look at that chart and see the possibility of another peak.
If you view the graphs for discovery for CA up to present (at the EIA site) you cant come to those conclusions either, Heavy oil or not .
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Re: Peak Oil: Looking for the Wrong Symptoms?

Unread postby shortonsense » Sat 20 Feb 2010, 11:32:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', '
') I dont know how someone can honestly and objectively look at that chart and see the possibility of another peak.


Thats not the graph I referenced.
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Re: Peak Oil: Looking for the Wrong Symptoms?

Unread postby shortonsense » Sat 20 Feb 2010, 15:24:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', '
') I dont know how someone can honestly and objectively look at that chart and see the possibility of another peak.


Thats not the graph I referenced.
It's not the chart, rather your conclusions that are in question.


I didn't draw a conclusion either, I simply noted that is yet another example of a peak and enough of a decline that some bright peaker could proclaim a zombie or dieoff onslaught had started based on the historical information provided ( a peak, followed by a corresponding decline ).

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '
')You apparently believe that new heavy-oil reserves in California are special and magically grow over time.


I said no such thing. I referenced scientists discussing the change in estimated size with respect to time, much like those who confuse the small amount of Orinoco oil already produced with the ultimate size of what will be produced. Something completely different. And no, I won't lend you a neuron or two, or write up a wiki using monosyllabic words.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '
')TheDude pointed out that all oil reserves in California are heavy (always have been) and are not magical. And certainly have not grown


He did no such thing. And no, I won't explain what he did point out, he did it just fine and anyone capable of reading can determine both that, and the point of my response. And no, I'm not about to try and teach you how to read either.
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Re: Peak Oil: Looking for the Wrong Symptoms?

Unread postby TheDude » Sat 20 Feb 2010, 15:57:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', 'I') didn't draw a conclusion either, I simply noted that is yet another example of a peak and enough of a decline that some bright peaker could proclaim a zombie or dieoff onslaught had started based on the historical information provided ( a peak, followed by a corresponding decline ).


I no longer don't think that you don't know if you're sure if you know what you're talking about, either.

Someone give me a heads up if his arguments begin to take on any semblance of robustness, instead of filling up the site with straw men.
Cogito, ergo non satis bibivi
And let me tell you something: I dig your work.
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Re: Peak Oil: Looking for the Wrong Symptoms?

Unread postby shortonsense » Sat 20 Feb 2010, 16:04:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '
')Someone give me a heads up if his arguments begin to take on any semblance of robustness, instead of filling up the site with straw men.


I referenced changes in estimates of recoverable volumes. You countered with production rates peaking some time in the past. I seriously doubt you changed the subject by accident.
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Re: Peak Oil: Looking for the Wrong Symptoms?

Unread postby shortonsense » Sat 20 Feb 2010, 16:48:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', ' ')He can't even admit a mature oil region, California is in decline. But zombie dieoff onslaught? :shock:


I am perfectly willing to admit that a mature basin like the San Joaquin in California ( the example I used, not all of California ) is currently in decline. Just like the entire world, in, say, 1980 and 1981.

Of course, declines have been and will continue to be reversed, so the relevance to the point I was making is moot. I certainly said nothing about production rates, and I'm sure Dave understood why he changed the topic, even if you don't.
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Re: Peak Oil: Looking for the Wrong Symptoms?

Unread postby shortonsense » Sat 20 Feb 2010, 18:34:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '
')I am perfectly willing to admit that a mature basin like the San Joaquin in California ( the example I used, not all of California ) is currently in decline. Just like the entire world, in, say, 1980 and 1981.
Have fun. "Admit" all you want.

But 1979, 1980, 1981 et. al.? WTF


Your normal level of confusion over the basics of this debate are no longer a surprise.
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