$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '
')What is that conventional wisdom? god only made so much good real estate. Well, the good real estate suddenly looked bad when folks who made $400/week suddenly had to spend $100/week on gasoline.
PeakOil is You
Peak Oil: Looking for the Wrong Symptoms?
Re: Peak Oil: Looking for the Wrong Symptoms?
by mos6507 » Thu 18 Feb 2010, 23:17:19
The people making $400 a week had a liar loan that, after reset, they were never going to afford even if gas were free. The mortage resets broke their finances. Gas was a minor irritant in comparison.
Also, housing appreciation had already scared off buyers, as every market has a threshold of pain beyond which buyers won't cross. House prices had reached absurd highs (even when factoring in teaser loans) and no bubble market can inflate forever. The housing collapse had already begun in late 2006 or 2007 long before the SUV owners were whining and moaning at the pump. In fact, the housing bubble was able to survive the brief gas spike right after Katrina, because the ARM resets hadn't taken hold yet!
If the housing crash started in the exurbs it probably had to do with the distribution of the initial liar loans being greater in the exurbs where there was the most new construction.
- mos6507
Re: Peak Oil: Looking for the Wrong Symptoms?
by mos6507 » Thu 18 Feb 2010, 23:32:51
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Outcast_Searcher', '
')next time and/or the time after that, Chindia/3rd world induced high oil prices will do the job).
')next time and/or the time after that, Chindia/3rd world induced high oil prices will do the job).
Unfortunately, now that the debt crisis has been nationalized and set off a ticking timebomb for a future mega-meltdown, it will continue to cloud the causality issue of peak oil and recessions.
We're just going to have to concede that the world is not just black and white and you can have multiple crises operating in parallel and influencing eachother. There is too much effort being spent by those heavily emotionally invested in one aspect of our dysfunctional system or another to try to have their favored issue take center stage. It's about exploiting a crisis for attention rather than truly being objective.
Would I have liked to see peak oil get noticed? Sure, but for the right reasons, not because of connections that are about as tenuous as Saddam to Al Qaeda.
I look at things more holistically.
BTW, I'm going to have to start carving hashmarks into my computer desk to keep track of how many times the "peak oil caused the credit crisis" meme keeps polluting this site. It's getting ridiculous.
- mos6507
Re: Peak Oil: Looking for the Wrong Symptoms?
by AirlinePilot » Fri 19 Feb 2010, 01:04:31
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', 'A')nd it all happened in the US after the 1979 global peak, so there is even historical precedent. 
You really need to get out more and talk to some Geologists. Except for a quirky few who believe in abiotic oil I can safely say a large majority of the Geologists who understand the process for finding oil would agree that in 1979 they were pretty sure there was still a LOT of easy oil to be found. Presently I can also safely say that a large majority of these same folks would not agree that we will find a similar amount of easy oil which was turned up in the years following 1979. The global decline in discoveries supports this despite your and OF's often optimistic analysis of the situation.
Not to say there is not a lot of oil out there, but the prospects of finding another Burgan, or North Sea, or Prudhoe bay, Cantarell etc are dwindling with each passing year.
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Re: Peak Oil: Looking for the Wrong Symptoms?
by shortonsense » Fri 19 Feb 2010, 02:19:56
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', 'A')nd it all happened in the US after the 1979 global peak, so there is even historical precedent.
You really need to get out more and talk to some Geologists.Interesting comment. Which ones? The ones proclaiming peak back in 1989? Or who say peak oil happened in 2005 and we just all haven't noticed it?
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'E')xcept for a quirky few who believe in abiotic oil I can safely say a large majority of the Geologists who understand the process for finding oil would agree that in 1979 they were pretty sure there was still a LOT of easy oil to be found.
Then why were Jimmy Carters geologists telling him we would run out by the end of the 1980's? Seems like if they knew there was plenty around they wouldn't have him looking like a geoscience moron by proclaiming we were going to run out.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'P')resently I can also safely say that a large majority of these same folks would not agree that we will find a similar amount of easy oil which was turned up in the years following 1979. The global decline in discoveries supports this despite your and OF's often optimistic analysis of the situation.
Global discoveries were also declining when Jimmy said we were going to run out. And I don't have an optimistic analysis, I just note that 2005 has been claimed by the Prophets as peak oil...and here we are...5 years later...and people are STILL citing MSM quotes as fast as they can which say "The crunch is coming! I can smell it! Peak might happen soon!"
Which is pretty much the same thing they were saying in 2005 when peak oil actually happened.
Now, if you want to interpret the world as live in it now, at PO +5, as quite a bit better than expected, and call that optimistic, well, its hard to disagree.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'N')ot to say there is not a lot of oil out there, but the prospects of finding another Burgan, or North Sea, or Prudhoe bay, Cantarell etc are dwindling with each passing year.
