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Peak Oil: Looking for the Wrong Symptoms?

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.
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Re: Peak Oil: Looking for the Wrong Symptoms?

Unread postby Ludi » Fri 19 Feb 2010, 18:34:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '
')But what we're really afraid of is to be stuck somewhere in which there is no transition momentum, or outright hostility towards it. I kind of see myself as sitting in front of a pile of wet firewood with a lighter without much fluid in it, trying to get it started, and getting really discouraged.



That makes me sad and makes me wish you had someone to help you collect firewood before it gets wet. :(

But see, what bugs (ok, scares, when I let myself get paranoid) me about some of my fellow doomers is the potential self-fullfilling prophecy of the Zombie Horde. Because they see sharing and mutual support as "kumbaya" and unrealistic pollyannaism, they won't make any effort to work with their neighbors to develop mutual support systems. Therefore the neighbors will remain potential Zombies, living next door to the heavily armed first-person-shooter-playing doomer who fantasizes about getting to shoot people for real. [smilie=qleft5.gif] [smilie=5zombie.gif]
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Re: Peak Oil: Looking for the Wrong Symptoms?

Unread postby AirlinePilot » Fri 19 Feb 2010, 19:17:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', 'I')t might not be light and sweet, but if you want oil, we got LOTS of that.
With this one statement you destroy any credibility with which you might argue anything here. The ignorance of it is colossal.
YOU might not like heavy oils, but California has been turning the same stuff into motor fuels longer than you have been alive. Pretending it doesn't exist, or hasn't been, is being or will be converted into a fuel which runs your car or airplane isn't MY demonstration of ignorance.


Britain has a lot of coal still. I wonder what you'll find when you check into how their coal industry has faired after most of the "easy stuff" had been mined. It isnt about amounts as you so profusely proclaim.

I never pretended it isnt going to be a part of the picture, I only acknowledge how small that part will be instead of proclaiming all will be well by pointing to how much this or that agency claims exists.

How much there is is not the problem but you constantly ignore that and continue to announce "Gee look how much of this stuff there is" We are saved! Hence my definition.
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Re: Peak Oil: Looking for the Wrong Symptoms?

Unread postby AirlinePilot » Fri 19 Feb 2010, 19:20:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', 'A') great many doomers "see dead people" in the sense that we look at the world around us as it is today and imagine how the game of survival will play out post-peak. We assume that our neighbors will boil in the pot before they suffer the indignity of breaking out the gardening shovel. So their skin will turn gray and they will start clawing at your door moaning "braaaiiiiinnnz". So doomers write people off.

So I really think it's a trust issue. Doomers want some sign, however faint, that their community will begin to adapt. For instance, even the most successful Transition towns only have a small number of core participants. But it's enough of an inoculation, so to speak, to think that over time the rest of the residents will join in.

But what we're really afraid of is to be stuck somewhere in which there is no transition momentum, or outright hostility towards it. I kind of see myself as sitting in front of a pile of wet firewood with a lighter without much fluid in it, trying to get it started, and getting really discouraged. For people in that kind of situation, it's natural to feel a little hopeless or cynical about your neighbors, and to fear that the frog really WILL have to boil before they act. And that just won't end well.

Really, change it's a two way street. You can lead a horse to water but you can't make him drink.

I hope as time goes on there will be more success stories out there to show that people can begin to adapt, but right now they are few and far between.


Excellent post. As a slow crash sort of doomer this is the main problem I see. At some point we just kind of run out of time for the "better" solution, which should involve a lot more leadership now.
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Re: Peak Oil: Looking for the Wrong Symptoms?

Unread postby mos6507 » Fri 19 Feb 2010, 20:11:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '
')Because they see sharing and mutual support as "kumbaya" and unrealistic pollyannaism, they won't make any effort to work with their neighbors to develop mutual support systems. Therefore the neighbors will remain potential Zombies, living next door to the heavily armed first-person-shooter-playing doomer who fantasizes about getting to shoot people for real. [smilie=qleft5.gif] [smilie=5zombie.gif]


I hear ya, and normally I'd be delivering the above sentiment towards RangerOne, but out in the real world, the rubber has to meet the road. Wanting community is not the same as getting it. I'm a pretty shy guy so I looked to the Transition model as a way to hide behind a movement rather than it just being me as a lone crusader. But to do that, you need a handful of initiators in the town. You know, the sum being greater than its parts. But there are none to be had. My friend who is even more gung ho is in the same situation. It's not our fault that we are in "fallow" locations. At some point the default demographics of the neighborhood has to be factored in rather than just pointing the finger at us for not working hard enough. It's not our exclusive responsibility to transform things when people have made it known in everything they do that they firmly endorse BAU, or at best, pay some lip-service to "green".

So what exactly is going to grease the wheels here? About a dozen blog posts ping-ponging around the internet between Greer, Orlov, Astyk, and Peak Shrink have been asking this question lately. The general consensus is that people look to community when they NEED it. This backs up the idea that the frog must boil in the pot. It also means that these neighborhoods will continue in their happy-go-lucky ways until the downward pressure of collapse either forces them together or causes them to lunge at each other's throats.

I'd like to believe people will just "come around" as the pressure mounts but I think there is just as much of a chance they will lash out negatively rather than band together, especially if they are starting from a framework that worships the individual and can't seem to accept a future of less rather than more.
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Re: Peak Oil: Looking for the Wrong Symptoms?

Unread postby shortonsense » Fri 19 Feb 2010, 20:47:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', 'Y')OU might not like heavy oils, but California has been turning the same stuff into motor fuels longer than you have been alive. Pretending it doesn't exist, or hasn't been, is being or will be converted into a fuel which runs your car or airplane isn't MY demonstration of ignorance.


Britain has a lot of coal still. I wonder what you'll find when you check into how their coal industry has faired after most of the "easy stuff" had been mined. It isnt about amounts as you so profusely proclaim.


Hubbert certainly thought it was about amounts. Used them all over the place, for all sorts of fossil fuels. Also for nuclear fuels. So do Laherrere and Deffeyes, every time one of those guys did a calculation for peak oil, guess what one of their core pieces of information is? Amounts of course.

Seems strange that you would suddenly think they don't matter?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', '
')I never pretended it isnt going to be a part of the picture, I only acknowledge how small that part will be instead of proclaiming all will be well by pointing to how much this or that agency claims exists.


You think it will be small. Okay...others have thought the same, so thats pretty reasonable. Lets see how that thinking worked out?

Check out slide #6 of this particular presentation.

http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2005/1355/pdf/OFR-2005-1355.pdf

Notice how the San Joaquin Basin, with a large bias towards heavy oil, just kept getting bigger, and bigger, and bigger. Apparently heavy oils do this better than regular oils.

This presentation breaks out information by API gravity to some extent, and even here the heavy bias towards getting out more, and more, and more, appears to be density related. Notice how in Slide #24 the heavy oil component just keeps climbing, after a late start, whereas the other weight oils seem to be trying to asymptote within even the limited timeframe of the study.

http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2005/1179/pdf/OFR-2005-1179.pdf

You might dismiss all this as "this agency or that" but certainly the experts are noticing how these heavy oils just keep getting larger and larger as technology and money and such is applied. If you have information to base your dismissal on, that would be different. Do you have such information?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', '
') How much there is is not the problem but you constantly ignore that and continue to announce "Gee look how much of this stuff there is" We are saved! Hence my definition.


Again, just about all the geoscience Prophets think that how much there is, is DIRECTLY related to peak oil proclamations, pronouncements and prognostications. Certainly if they are allowed to notice, or more particularly, to censor the quantity information to make their case look better, it seems only reasonable that others can try and decode their censorship using objective scientists and such.

And I don't recall ever seriously proclaiming we are saved just because we have lots of oil laying around, I'm a firm believer we should leave as much as possible in the ground, if possible. It just seems like the right thing to do.
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Re: Peak Oil: Looking for the Wrong Symptoms?

Unread postby TheDude » Fri 19 Feb 2010, 20:56:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('argyle', '
')However, it could just as well ruin our recovery as it won't be easy to grow if oil prices suddenly go back to +100$/barrel price once demand starts to pick up and there isn't enough reserve capacity.


Or it could be the second wave of foreclosures people posted about today. The credit crisis is not over yet. This idea that it has to be ONE driver at a time instead of more of a soup of complex factors. It comforts people to build a narrative in which oil geology is the Godlike driver of all other facets of life. It makes the future seem more predictable. It's not that simple.


You could liken this to atmospheric forcings as well. I agree that debt is carbon dioxide, and that energy is methane; but we see a lot of melting permafrost and bubbling clathrates out there.

"personal spending" - Google Image Search

Image

BTS | Personal Spending on Transportation. Data up to 2009 Q3. What happened to the rest of personal spending, how much of a hit it took from debt, is something I'm still looking into. Or looking for someone who's done all the work, rather.
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Re: Peak Oil: Looking for the Wrong Symptoms?

Unread postby sparky » Fri 19 Feb 2010, 21:07:39

Moss
"But what we're really afraid of is to be stuck somewhere in which there is no transition momentum, or outright hostility towards it. "


there should be the full gamut of outcomes depending on the local situation
remote rural sould be more robust , the folks know each others ,
they are ethnically homogeneous often related with common values
there is a trust/ mistrust " credit system , everybody know what one is " worth"
as an individual or member of a family group which can cover for him / her
interaction are governed by a well understood code

Small townships have basically the same set up to a lesser degree
little organization or compulsion is needed to get thing to work and folks to stay cool
there is potential food production near by

at the other end is the megalopolis , ten millions of strangers distrustful of each others
food has to come from days away , water is centrally distributed
there is no way of stopping a local riot except by violence ,
it take half the available police force of a whole city to smother one district going ape-shit

when the whole place erupt or collapse the police desert to look after their families

It take a special set of circumstances for such a parlous outcome
usually martial law is pretty effective to keep a lid on things
at least down the main streets ,

the back lanes will have to sort things on their own

.
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Re: Peak Oil: Looking for the Wrong Symptoms?

Unread postby TheDude » Fri 19 Feb 2010, 21:13:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', 'C')heck out slide #6 of this particular presentation.

http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2005/1355/pdf/OFR-2005-1355.pdf

Notice how the San Joaquin Basin, with a large bias towards heavy oil, just kept getting bigger, and bigger, and bigger. Apparently heavy oils do this better than regular oils.


Where do I begin. You realize that CA peaked in Nov 1985 and in Feb '09 was at 52% of its peak production, right? Or that CA oil is heavy in the first place? Do some basic homework before pontificating. Anything, even the Wiki on petroleum.

Image

Contrast slide 22 of your link, which purports to contrast a pessimistic Hubbert peak with an ostensibly more realistic plateau and slow decline from reserve growth, with the North Sea mentioned as an example, with this graph of actuals:

Image
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Re: Peak Oil: Looking for the Wrong Symptoms?

Unread postby mos6507 » Fri 19 Feb 2010, 21:23:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', 'D')ata up to 2009 Q3. What happened to the rest of personal spending, how much of a hit it took from debt, is something I'm still looking into. Or looking for someone who's done all the work, rather.


I don't think the data is granular enough. The theory is that housing tanked because the gasoline portion of people's monthly finances pushed them over the edge, not the ARM resets. So the idea was that they would have been able to (and willing to) either continue to pay their mortgage or flip it to the next sucker (with no end in sight to the bubble) if not for gas prices.

To establish causation you almost have to sit everybody in the US down and open their bank records to see how they were managing their money, and whether they even had a hope and a prayer on paying the ARM after the reset.

What I'm going by are things like the Dateline NBC piece that actually showed real-life examples of people who never should have qualified for these loans having got them. In some cases they thought they were gaming the system, and in others they were just kind of clueless for not reading the paperwork. They then scrolled through the spreadsheets of loan applications to show that these types of losers were actually the norm, not the exception. The income data was often falsified somewhere along the line in order to get the approval and the AAA rating. This was a comedy of errors at all levels before you even factored oil into the mix.

So I think the number of people who were planning to be good little homeowners and to scrape by being house-poor after the ARM reset and the mortgage jumped by $1,000+ if not for an extra $20 a week on gas were the exception, not the rule. It's was pretty easy to cut discretionary spending enough to compensate for $4 gas, as scary as that figure may sound, but not so easy to scrape up enough money for the mortgage. It was the foreclosure shockwave that was the main driver in the recession, not the household economizing due to high energy costs.

I think the slowdown on the buying end was not driven by the unavailability of credit but by the natural endpoint of the housing bubble. Prices had reached their ceiling and another round of flipping the house to the next sucker was not going to occur regardless of gas prices. Places like Phoenix were already crashing and burning long before oil went over $100/bbl.
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Re: Peak Oil: Looking for the Wrong Symptoms?

Unread postby Ludi » Fri 19 Feb 2010, 21:59:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', ' ')At some point we just kind of run out of time for the "better" solution, which should involve a lot more leadership now.



So maybe we should be acting as those "leaders." Or are you expecting our elected employees to act as leaders? Why on earth would you expect them to "lead" in the right direction?

Where do you expect leadership to come from if not from yourself?

:?: :?: :?:

Again this is the "they should be fixing things" argument I see so many times here. Who the hell are "they" and why do you expect "them" to fix it?


:?: :?: :?: :?:
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Re: Peak Oil: Looking for the Wrong Symptoms?

Unread postby Narz » Fri 19 Feb 2010, 22:34:02

Thanks Ludi & nice dialogue between you & mos re : what you're talking about.
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Re: Peak Oil: Looking for the Wrong Symptoms?

Unread postby AirlinePilot » Fri 19 Feb 2010, 23:38:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', ' ')At some point we just kind of run out of time for the "better" solution, which should involve a lot more leadership now.



So maybe we should be acting as those "leaders." Or are you expecting our elected employees to act as leaders? Why on earth would you expect them to "lead" in the right direction?

Where do you expect leadership to come from if not from yourself?

:?: :?: :?:

Again this is the "they should be fixing things" argument I see so many times here. Who the hell are "they" and why do you expect "them" to fix it?


:?: :?: :?: :?:


Actually leadership does need to come from both political AND corporate sources to gear those who can to act on policies and projects which at least help us to:

A. Educate the general populace to the fact that there is a problem looming.
B. Establish policy and projects which lead to conservation and better use of alternatives on a much more aggressive time scale.
C. Aggressively pursue transparency in estimates of recoverable reserves around the globe, but specifically OPEC nations
D. Allow those with the means, both politically and monetarily to promote all the above.

The United States and the other OECD nations need to be the leaders while we still have viable economies with which to pursue such avenues.
Although it is recently looking like it just may be too late for that.

Its pretty difficult for folks like me to do those things I admit..but I have not been idle...

You ask what I am doing and do so with some sort of implied attitude that Im just arm chairing this thing. Far from it. I have personally acted on several fronts to
decrease my use of hydrocarbons although not to the extent that I'd like yet. I have succeeded in lowering my personal gasoline consumption by almost 50%. I have reduced my usage of electricity also but not to that extent...yet.

I have also made my three College aged children keenly aware of the challenges facing us moving forward.

I have worked within my local government in pursuing education on of the problems associated with Peak Oil and how it will and IS affecting our local community.
I plan to work harder in this regard now that my children are engaged in school away from the home.

I take offense at your post above and hope that you would apologize for any negative implication and I'd further ask WHAT are YOU doing about all of this?

The very fact that I am participating here should also be an indication that Im not here just for my entertainment, but to help educate others. I expect that is the reason a number of folks remain at this site to date.
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Re: Peak Oil: Looking for the Wrong Symptoms?

Unread postby mos6507 » Sat 20 Feb 2010, 00:00:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', '
')decrease my use of hydrocarbons...


If you want to decrease your use of hydrocarbons, I'd suggest a career change. ;)
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Re: Peak Oil: Looking for the Wrong Symptoms?

Unread postby AirlinePilot » Sat 20 Feb 2010, 00:04:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', '
')decrease my use of hydrocarbons...


If you want to decrease your use of hydrocarbons, I'd suggest a career change. ;)


Well, all within the realm of reason! At this point a career change is likely NOT in the cards for me.

I do not plan on moving to a bunker in the Montana mountains. I'd rather help educate and motivate locally. That is probably
where real progress can be made. Even though I still harbor hope it seems at the moment to be a monumental and probably insurmountable task
to undertake. The mainstream is not ready for this sort of awakening.
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Re: Peak Oil: Looking for the Wrong Symptoms?

Unread postby mos6507 » Sat 20 Feb 2010, 00:08:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', '
')At this point a career change is likely NOT in the cards for me.


Seems like peak oil will make it happen sooner or later, unless Richard Branson pulls a rabbit out of his hat. Whatever you do, leave the avatar. ;)
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Re: Peak Oil: Looking for the Wrong Symptoms?

Unread postby shortonsense » Sat 20 Feb 2010, 00:13:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', '
')decrease my use of hydrocarbons...


If you want to decrease your use of hydrocarbons, I'd suggest a career change. ;)


Oh....a ZINGER!!!
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Re: Peak Oil: Looking for the Wrong Symptoms?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 20 Feb 2010, 00:27:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rangerone314', '
')Kum bay ya, my Lord, kum bay ya!



Being self-employed and scavenging with your friends and neighbors is "kumbaya"? Or do you have a problem with sharing with your friends and neighbors?

Ludi, I like your basic tone/premise about working together and doing with less. It's so simple, and could work so well without a lot of complex interacting parts required to all fit.

A simple idea I have, if Americans could be persuaded to live simpler lives - is job sharing. If you could work, say, 20 or 25 hours a week, have a smaller salary, but live in a smaller house, drive a smaller car, live with one car, eat from your garden instead of that expensive restuarant, etc. etc. maybe it could work.

In developed European countries, they're trending that way, with shorter work weeks, sometimes mandated by government.

However with BAU growth, pursuit of the "most" at any cost, and now the realization by employers in America that they can threaten workers' jobs with outsourcing and get them to work (literally, it happened to me for a decade until I just had enough and quit) **70-90** hours per week for a 40 hour check, no raises, and rampant benefit cuts -- I don't see how this can work in America.

I know that on this site that many folks scorn simple attempts to just make a smaller footprint on the planet, without resorting to living in an extreme doomstead way. To me, that seems as unreasonable as the folks who insist on consuming every resource every earned AND borrowed dollar can possibly chase.
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Re: Peak Oil: Looking for the Wrong Symptoms?

Unread postby yeahbut » Sat 20 Feb 2010, 01:43:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', 'O')h....a ZINGER!!!


Nah, thats not a zinger, but this is

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', 'C')heck out slide #6 of this particular presentation.

http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2005/1355/pdf/OFR-2005-1355.pdf

Notice how the San Joaquin Basin, with a large bias towards heavy oil, just kept getting bigger, and bigger, and bigger. Apparently heavy oils do this better than regular oils.


Where do I begin. You realize that CA peaked in Nov 1985 and in Feb '09 was at 52% of its peak production, right? Or that CA oil is heavy in the first place? Do some basic homework before pontificating. Anything, even the Wiki on petroleum.


And a spanking too :lol:
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Re: Peak Oil: Looking for the Wrong Symptoms?

Unread postby shortonsense » Sat 20 Feb 2010, 02:24:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', 'C')heck out slide #6 of this particular presentation.

http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2005/1355/pdf/OFR-2005-1355.pdf

Notice how the San Joaquin Basin, with a large bias towards heavy oil, just kept getting bigger, and bigger, and bigger. Apparently heavy oils do this better than regular oils.


Where do I begin. You realize that CA peaked in Nov 1985 and in Feb '09 was at 52% of its peak production, right? Or that CA oil is heavy in the first place? Do some basic homework before pontificating. Anything, even the Wiki on petroleum.


I was referencing the absolute size changes, not the absolute production rates. So of course I may pontificate on my topic, and you may change the subject if such demonstrable changes disturb you. Certainly some might want to avoid this "small" point, particularly if the Orinoco gets involved and follows a profile like other heavy oils.

One day the heavy oils are a billion barrels of reserves here and there, and the next, Ghawar is no longer the worlds largest oilfield. And in neither circumstance does the actual rate per year, Hubberts profile or changes in rate with respect to time have anything to do with what I noted.
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Re: Peak Oil: Looking for the Wrong Symptoms?

Unread postby shortonsense » Sat 20 Feb 2010, 02:25:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', '
')Image


Do we really have to start up the multiple peak thing again? You guys keep coming up with these examples, how am I supposed to RESTRAIN myself? :lol:
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