[cipi604]

A good read on TOD, again. Plain and simple.

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6226#more

[Ferretlover]

IMO, the Debt payment section would remain the same approximate size for a short term only; then, the need for clothing, medicines, etc., would begin to influence, then, force a change to blowing off debts owed to others.

[Ludi]

We need to wean ourselves from the whole "jobs" idea.

[AgentR]

I've suggested many times that the notion of "Oil/Gasoline will be X-odd dollars in the future, thus causing Y result." to be quite off the mark. People try to simplify the supply & demand thing as a 2D graph, mostly, I think, because its the limit of what they can conveniently draw or explain.

As we've seen with the current depression, demand can fall as a result of other factors, supply is manipulated by producers to sustain a reasonably stable price, the current supply, combined with economic activity level, serve to drive price up or down.

We could be headed towards an environment where Gas costs $10 US2010 and no one cares, or $1 US2010, and no one can afford it.

The real measure is how much oil can the economy process, and how much end product can it get out of that processing. If the amount of product per barrel stays the same, but we can only process half as much, for whatever reason, there are going to be some very unhappy people.

nb(product as in end economic activity, food, typewriters, etc; not just refined result of oil)

[GoghGoner]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'L')et me tell you what I think the symptoms of the arrival of peak oil are

1. Higher default rates on loans
2. Recession

[GoghGoner]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'I') am satisfied with economic analysis by Hamilton, Rubin, and Therramus demonstrating that modern post war recessions are a consequence of increasing oil prices. Some would suggest this mistakes correlation with cause and effect, and that one could say the same about wheat prices causing recession. However, we know oil grows wheat not visa versa.

Now we have Steven Kopits noting that oil-expenditures/GDP ratio of 4% seems to be the recessionary spark

[mos6507]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'I') am satisfied with economic analysis by Hamilton, Rubin, and Therramus demonstrating that modern post war recessions are a consequence of increasing oil prices. Some would suggest this mistakes correlation with cause and effect, and that one could say the same about wheat prices causing recession. However, we know oil grows wheat not visa versa.

Now we have Steven Kopits noting that oil-expenditures/GDP ratio of 4% seems to be the recessionary spark

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'C')ome Mos. You have to respond to my points, not just rehash yours. You still haven't responded to the timing (Oily did ) of the Japanese and German recessions. And that the crash began in new exurban developments, with very long commutes, and higher gasoline prices. What is that conventional wisdom? god only made so much good real estate. Well, the good real estate suddenly looked bad when folks who made $400/week suddenly had to spend $100/week on gasoline.

[GoghGoner]

Hmmm... I think maybe I could list unsustainable data points against there corresponding sustainable data points. This will be based on my interpretation of what is sustainable.

Unsustainable vs. Sustainable
Large Farms vs. Small Farms
Airlines vs. Sailboats
Asphalt streets vs. Dirt roads
Plastic bags vs. Canvas/Jute bags
Aunt Jemima vs Maple Syrup
Non-farm Workers vs. Farm workers

[Carlhole]

Energy Bulletin

I like the comment by one of the editors at EB at the end of their posting of this article.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')i] ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Editorial Notes ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
A problem with Gail's analysis is that it doesn't have the sex appeal of Mad Max and crazed mobs cleaning out vegetable gardens.

On the other hand, I think she's probably right - we will experience peak oil as economic problems rather than dramatic shortages of fuel and goods.

If so, then it would be more realistic to plan for economic troubles than to spend energy on extreme survivalist strategies.

-BA

[shortonsense]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'M')os you decry "doomers" for their scare tactics, hysteria, and irrational scenarios that dilute this site's impact. Yet you seem to refuse a moderate peak scenario, the one playing out right now--disequilibrium and slow decline.

[shortonsense]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'S')o you are still ranting on about multiple peaks?