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THE Aptera Thread (merged)

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Re: Aptera is on its Knees

Unread postby mos6507 » Wed 03 Feb 2010, 10:11:33

Aptera's founders ousted.
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Re: Aptera is on its Knees

Unread postby Revi » Wed 03 Feb 2010, 12:55:05

I love the Aptera, but a cool design is only the beginning. You have to be able to get the product to market. I thought it was smart of them to limit the cars to SoCal, but they have to turn out a few cars.

We'll see what happens. The Sparrow was a similar car, and it's still being produced.

There may be a niche for a 3 wheeler that is lightweight and can be driven anywhere.

It's the next step up from a low speed EV.

All of these companies have had start up problems. Zap was in big trouble a couple of years ago for not delivering its orders.

We're still going. I'm in this quick time movie:

http://www.sunnev.com/TV_spot.mov

http://www.sunnev.com
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Re: Aptera is on its Knees

Unread postby yesplease » Thu 04 Feb 2010, 00:57:37

Now they're really on their knees.
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Re: Aptera is on its Knees

Unread postby mos6507 » Thu 04 Feb 2010, 11:17:22

If Aptera doesn't get the DOE financing to bring it back to life, it's game over and my topic starter will have been vindicated. Just the fact that the government is being asked to bail out Aptera is evidence that they couldn't have made it on their own.
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Re: Aptera is on its Knees

Unread postby yesplease » Thu 04 Feb 2010, 17:27:03

To be fair, there's also discussion of moving the entire operation to Michigan (better incentives, cheaper labor, lower costs overall), so it could be that too. It looks like the current CEO is taking a make it or break it approach, as opposed to something similar to Meyers motors, where they make a smaller number of vehicles and charge a high enough premium to make money off of a small number of sales. I suppose this is the sort of stuff people get w/ a change in leadership. I'm guessing Aptera has a 50/50 chance of surviving over the next couple years.
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Re: Aptera is on its Knees

Unread postby mos6507 » Thu 04 Feb 2010, 20:31:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', 'I')'m guessing Aptera has a 50/50 chance of surviving over the next couple years.


Always the optimist.
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Re: Aptera is on its Knees

Unread postby yesplease » Thu 04 Feb 2010, 21:38:40

If we went by your post over a year ago they should be out of business already.
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Re: Aptera is on its Knees

Unread postby mos6507 » Thu 04 Feb 2010, 21:53:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', 'I')f we went by your post over a year ago they should be out of business already.


They pretty much ARE already out of business. They are mothballing the whole company and waiting for the DOE bailout.

If they actually started delivering a small number of cars to people on the reserve list like Tesla did, then I'd be more conciliatory. As it is, they've shown no ability to meet their own deadlines and get an assembly line up and running.
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Re: Aptera is on its Knees

Unread postby JRP3 » Thu 04 Feb 2010, 21:58:19

I'm not sure they were ever really in business.
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Re: Aptera is on its Knees

Unread postby mos6507 » Thu 04 Feb 2010, 22:05:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JRP3', 'I')'m not sure they were ever really in business.


They got started because of the void left from the EV-1 and its peers. They became irrelevant once gas prices came down and people realized they could just stop panicking, sit tight, and wait for the Volt or the Leaf.

Tesla has the same problem, but it at least has proven it can ship finished cars. But the market for a $100K 2-seater is even smaller than a $30K 2-seater, especially in a recession.

The moral of the story is--strike while the iron is hot.

Here is another fallen star for you.

How fricken hard is it to convert a Carver to electric? They've spent years doing almost nothing but retool and retool the outer shell. Stick an electric motor and a battery in it and ship the damn thing.
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Re: Aptera is on its Knees

Unread postby JRP3 » Thu 04 Feb 2010, 22:45:49

Three wheelers are like starting a race by shooting yourself in the foot. They immediately limit the potential market.
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Re: Aptera is on its Knees

Unread postby yesplease » Thu 04 Feb 2010, 23:06:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JRP3', 'I')'m not sure they were ever really in business.
They got started because of the void left from the EV-1 and its peers. They became irrelevant once gas prices came down and people realized they could just stop panicking, sit tight, and wait for the Volt or the Leaf.

Tesla has the same problem, but it at least has proven it can ship finished cars. But the market for a $100K 2-seater is even smaller than a $30K 2-seater, especially in a recession.

The moral of the story is--strike while the iron is hot.

Here is another fallen star for you.

How fricken hard is it to convert a Carver to electric? They've spent years doing almost nothing but retool and retool the outer shell. Stick an electric motor and a battery in it and ship the damn thing.
Low energy three wheelers weren't meant to compete directly w/ a Volt or EV1 AFAIK. Even if they brought something to the market in 2008, people would still wait an extra 2-3 years if they wanted a Volt or a Leaf. They're more like a motorcycle versus a car in terms of a niche market except with a different metric (lower costs instead of more performance). They offer way less interior room and only one or two passengers, but they can also go much farther on a charge than any standard car given the ~same pack size.
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Re: Aptera is on its Knees

Unread postby mos6507 » Fri 05 Feb 2010, 11:38:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', '
')Low energy three wheelers weren't meant to compete directly w/ a Volt or EV1


The fact is that people who are/were on the Aptera reservation list were early-adopter EV fanatics worked up into a lather by Who Killed the Electric Car.

They wanted the thing because there wasn't anything else available outside of the six-figure Tesla.

Just read the Aptera forums and you'll see what I mean. People worrying about driving it in the snow or crashing the wheels trying to get the wide vehicle into a garage. They were rationalizing being evangelists for the Aptera because they thought it would be the only game in town. Few of them are gung ho about it BECAUSE it's a 3-wheeler 2-seater.

Aptera NEEDED these people to stay on board. Without them, the remaining niche of those who really _want_ a 3-wheeler 2-seaters when they could otherwise buy a 4 or 5 seater plugin or EV is miniscule at best.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', '
')They offer way less interior room and only one or two passengers, but they can also go much farther on a charge than any standard car given the ~same pack size.


Which the Volt solves with a plugin architecture (and economy of scale which Aptera can't beat). Aptera hasn't even demonstrated their mythical plugin hybrid variant.

They've committed the cardinal sins of vehicle startups of overpromising and underdelivering, squandering all of the early buzz.
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Re: Aptera is on its Knees

Unread postby yesplease » Sat 06 Feb 2010, 08:24:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', 'L')ow energy three wheelers weren't meant to compete directly w/ a Volt or EV1
The fact is that people who are/were on the Aptera reservation list were early-adopter EV fanatics worked up into a lather by Who Killed the Electric Car.
How is that a fact? At best that's just speculation that happens to be correct, and at worst it's totally wrong. You have a right to your own opinion, but not to you own facts. ;)
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', 'T')hey wanted the thing because there wasn't anything else available outside of the six-figure Tesla.
Well, except the NMG. If what you stated was true then everyone on that forum should have one, but there's only one forum member who does. Everyone else has conventional vehicles (I'd wager a Prius is the most commonly owned vehicle) and/or the occasional electric scooter.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', 'J')ust read the Aptera forums and you'll see what I mean. People worrying about driving it in the snow or crashing the wheels trying to get the wide vehicle into a garage. They were rationalizing being evangelists for the Aptera because they thought it would be the only game in town. Few of them are gung ho about it BECAUSE it's a 3-wheeler 2-seater.
Now you're evangelizing! ;)

There's no way you can determine whether or not those people were attracted to the lower operating costs and wanted to make sure they could fit it in their garage or drive it in the snow, if they thought it was the only game in town like you mentioned, or even something else.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', 'A')ptera NEEDED these people to stay on board. Without them, the remaining niche of those who really _want_ a 3-wheeler 2-seaters when they could otherwise buy a 4 or 5 seater plugin or EV is miniscule at best.For one, if that's true, then we'll see a huge drop in reservations to more or less nothing w/ the release of the Volt/Leaf/etc. Two, if that is the case then it's the worst business plan ever. Trying to take market share from mass produced vehicles made by large automakers is a nearly surefire method for failure. Like anyone else to be successful they need to carve out a niche. Even if all the speculation you made was true, then they still would go belly-up once the other manufacturers got into the game, which gave 'em at most a few years of production. The only logical business plan is to carve out their own niche like Meyers and Tesla have.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', 'T')hey offer way less interior room and only one or two passengers, but they can also go much farther on a charge than any standard car given the ~same pack size.Which the Volt solves with a plugin architecture (and economy of scale which Aptera can't beat). Aptera hasn't even demonstrated their mythical plugin hybrid variant.

They've committed the cardinal sins of vehicle startups of overpromising and underdelivering, squandering all of the early buzz.That's a very unique definition of "solves"... :-D

The Volt hasn't reached a large enough economy of scale to impact it's costs yet. Once we hit the million Volts (or similar) mark, then costs will probably be streamlined, but until then all the Volt does is offer normal driving range for a ~$10k premium compared to something like an Aptera at the cost of much lower all electric range.

All startups overpromise and underdeliver until they don't. Aptera will make it or break it like anyone else, but it won't be based off of speculation on behalf of either one of us.
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Re: Aptera is on its Knees

Unread postby mos6507 » Sat 06 Feb 2010, 11:40:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', '
')Well, except the NMG. If what you stated was true then everyone on that forum should have one


A lead-acid single-passenger NMG P.O.S. is in no way equivalent to an Aptera. Even EV nuts have a line they won't cross.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', '
')There's no way you can determine whether or not those people were attracted to the lower operating costs and wanted to make sure they could fit it in their garage or drive it in the snow, if they thought it was the only game in town like you mentioned, or even something else.


I'm saying what I'm saying based on reading the things people say in the forums. If you want I can start quoting from it to back up my case. Do we have to get that far into the minutiae?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', '
')Trying to take market share from mass produced vehicles made by large automakers is a nearly surefire method for failure.


That's my point! THERE WERE NO MASS PRODUCED EVs in development when Aptera started its business. Aptera thought they had the whole game of affordable freeway-capable EVs to themselves.

That's the way business works. You find a void in the market and you exploit it. But what tends to happen is it awakens the big guys to jump in anyway. You saw this, for instance, with MP3 players. The iPod wasn't the first, but it was the one that took over.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', '
')Even if all the speculation you made was true, then they still would go belly-up once the other manufacturers got into the game, which gave 'em at most a few years of production.


That's correct. They would have gone belly up anyway, or at least become a marginal player (like Avanti). In order to be a lasting company they would have needed to offer something exclusive. Their pricepoint is already about where the Volt is. And with half the passenger capacity and no range extender. The only thing they have going for them is the look, which is very much a love-it-or-hate-it issue.



$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', '
')The Volt hasn't reached a large enough economy of scale to impact it's costs yet. Once we hit the million Volts (or similar) mark, then costs will probably be streamlined, but until then all the Volt does is offer normal driving range for a ~$10k premium compared to something like an Aptera at the cost of much lower all electric range.


People don't need more than 40 miles electric range to eliminate gas usage for their daily commutes. You only need really big electric range to address range anxiety, something the plugin architecture does more economically than a really expensive pack.

Economy of scale is not just for the EV-exclusive components. The Volt leverages the entire GM infrastructure and supply lines, something that Aptera can't hope to compete with. For instance, the Volt is being built using the same chassis as the gas-only Cruze. Any standardized components like the interior, the lights, etc... would all benefit. Aptera is almost all custom.
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Re: Aptera is on its Knees

Unread postby Revi » Fri 12 Feb 2010, 11:54:28

We have driven our electric car for 2 years and it is a different thing from the gas powered cars we have. We never worry about range, because at 30 miles per charge the most we've ever used the car down to is 1/4 of a charge. We normally use it to about half charge and plug it in. When the sun isn't shining it's plugged in anyway. We go grocery shopping or whatever. No range anxiety here.
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Re: Aptera is on its Knees

Unread postby The_Toecutter » Wed 03 Mar 2010, 20:59:53

The following article was informative:

Part 1: http://gas2.org/2009/11/20/aptera-troubles-get-the-full-inside-story-here/

Part 2: http://gas2.org/2009/12/21/inside-aptera-troubles-part-ii/

So were some of the comments.
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Re: Aptera is on its Knees

Unread postby JRP3 » Wed 03 Mar 2010, 21:22:24

Hey Toe, good to see you're still around, it's been a while. Still working on the EV?
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Re: Aptera is on its Knees

Unread postby The_Toecutter » Thu 04 Mar 2010, 17:24:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JRP3', 'H')ey Toe, good to see you're still around, it's been a while. Still working on the EV?


I was working on it in 2009. It has been postponed again due to new components on the market and a reduced income on my part(been cut back to less than full time last year). I've lost my job this week and will be returning to St. Louis, where I will finally finish the thing with my savings. Universal Power now has some very attractive packs of LiFePO4 batteries in the range of ~$300/kWh, although they won't give me the horsepower I desire, they could still allow 0-60 mph in the 7-8 second region, while giving range comparable to a gasoline car with my choice of chassis. Zillas are also back in production.

I will eventually update the topic pertaining to that project, most likely after it is done.
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