Discussions of conventional and alternative energy production technologies.
by mos6507 » Sat 10 Jan 2009, 11:50:42
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', 'I')n terms of "affordable" production EVs, the RAV-4 EV was only ~$30,000 w/ rebates,
The Rav4 was highly subsidized. Toyota took a big loss on it. As it was designed they never would have been able to be an affordable vehicle.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', 'E')V in the last five years, but it certainly wasn't the first.
Oh, sorry for not including conversions or toys like these that came and went without anyone noticing.
The Car that launched a thousand EV jokes
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', 'T')he design is just as suitable for rough weather as any other FWD car.
I'll believe it when I see it. It needs the ability to remove the skirts or jack up the wheels so there is more clearance. The Triac, as ugly as it is compared to the Aptera, probably would work better in the snow.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', '
')Since it's body is made from composites I don't see how rust would be a problem. Have you thoroughly looked at your claims?
It will also be a PITA to repair in a collision.
Look, a lot of what I'm saying is merely a 'gut' level prediction. Time will tell, but my intuition tells me they are toast and this is the turning point. But it will take a long time for this sorry drama to play itself out. I don't want them to fail, but if they do, they really only have themselves to blame. I will not make excuses for them as you keep doing.
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by yesplease » Sat 10 Jan 2009, 16:44:32
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', '
')In terms of "affordable" production EVs, the RAV-4 EV was only ~$30,000 w/ rebates,
The Rav4 was highly subsidized. Toyota took a big loss on it. As it was designed they never would have been able to be an affordable vehicle.
The RAV-4 EV was at cost AFAIK, do you have proof that it was at a loss for Toyota?
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', '
')EV in the last five years, but it certainly wasn't the first.
Oh, sorry for not including conversions or toys like these that came and went without anyone noticing.
I was talking about the RAV-4 EV.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', 'T')he design is just as suitable for rough weather as any other FWD car.I'll believe it when I see it. It needs the ability to remove the skirts or jack up the wheels so there is more clearance.It needs the ability to remove the skirts? How do you think they get the wheels/tires on there or service the vehicle in the first place? The trim over the front wheels is just, well, trim.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', 'T')he Triac, as ugly as it is compared to the Aptera, probably would work better in the snow.I don't think so given it would do a crude imitation of a snow plow like every other conventional vehicle out there.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', 'S')ince it's body is made from composites I don't see how rust would be a problem. Have you thoroughly looked at your claims?It will also be a PITA to repair in a collision.That could be. In this case it's a trade off w/ safety. Some newer sedans like the Accord are designed to get more screwed up than a pedestrian in a collision w/ the pedestrian since it's way easier to fix and/or replace a car than it is to fix and/or replace a person. That said, it's all up to you whether or not you value the safety of yourself or others over a higher repair bill for your insurance company.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', 'L')ook, a lot of what I'm saying is merely a 'gut' level prediction. Time will tell, but my intuition tells me they are toast and this is the turning point. But it will take a long time for this sorry drama to play itself out. I don't want them to fail, but if they do, they really only have themselves to blame. I will not make excuses for them as you keep doing.That's the problem w/ intuition applied to physics, economics, and whatnot. It seems great at guessing the motivations of other individuals, but in terms of predicting other stuff, well, it can come up short. It wasn't too long ago that people though heavier stuff fell faster.
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yesplease on Sat 10 Jan 2009, 16:50:10, edited 1 time in total.
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by yesplease » Sat 10 Jan 2009, 16:47:51
Oh, and the locked-in:canceled ratio is 7:5. I think Aptera cares a lot more about having a 90+% chance of selling 7 vehicles for ~$190k than gaining $2.5k worth of non-refundable reservations only to have ~$135k worth of production sit on their lot. Besides, it's not like the people who canceled can't order later if the company succeeds. It's just that too much tire kicking would result in the company falling flat on it's face.
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yesplease on Mon 12 Jan 2009, 21:03:51, edited 1 time in total.
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by mos6507 » Sun 11 Jan 2009, 00:00:13
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', 'I') was talking about the RAV-4 EV.
A car that was begrudgingly sold to a handful of leaseholders is a footnote in the history books. BTW, the Rav4EV is a conversion. Technically the iMiev will be as well as it was a gas powered citycar first. Not that I care that much whether an EV is designed as such from the ground up, but it is one genuine feather in Aptera's cap.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', 'I') don't think so given it would do a crude imitation of a snow plow like every other conventional vehicle out there.
If you attempt to drive through a snow bank, yes I'm just talking about driving through a typical plowed road that still has a lot of slushy/icy/impacted snow underneath.
If they actually went to the bother of attempting to drive it through the snow we'd be able to do more than just speculate. But they aren't really looking beyond the California market.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', 'T')hat could be. In this case it's a trade off w/ safety.
Wrong. The composites were chosen for weight, not safety. If they wanted safety they'd put 5mph bumpers on it. That's one of the problems in designing a car like a plane.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', 'T')hat's the problem w/ intuition applied to physics, economics, and whatnot. It seems great at guessing the motivations of other individuals, but in terms of predicting other stuff, well, it can come up short. It wasn't too long ago that people though heavier stuff fell faster.
Trying to determine what sells is a black art. Cars are not bought purely on their technical merits. Perhaps they should be, but they aren't.
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by yesplease » Sun 11 Jan 2009, 00:43:09
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', 'I') was talking about the RAV-4 EV.
A car that was begrudgingly sold to a handful of leaseholders is a footnote in the history books. BTW, the Rav4EV is a conversion.
Begrudginly? Toyota went so far as to assemble vehicles from spare parts. It doesn't seem like the were reluctant to sell them if they actually went to the trouble of building some of them from spare parts.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', 'B')TW, the Rav4EV is a conversion. Technically the iMiev will be as well as it was a gas powered citycar first. Not that I care that much whether an EV is designed as such from the ground up, but it is one genuine feather in Aptera's cap.
They're just gliders. What kinda motive power they have determines whether they're gasoline, electric, diesel, etc... All the electrics are electrics from the factory. They have the chassis and drop an electric drivetrain into it instead of gas, diesel, LPG, or whatever. A conversion requires that the existing drivetrain be yanked out, and a different one put in.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', 'I') don't think so given it would do a crude imitation of a snow plow like every other conventional vehicle out there.
If you attempt to drive through a snow bank, yes. I'm just talking about driving through a typical plowed road that still has a lot of slushy/icy/impacted snow underneath.And in that case it's just as good if not better since it has a larger proportion of it's weigh over the wheels than most other vehicles. Either way ya cut it, it'll be as good if not better in the snow. That isn't to say it wouldn't need snow tires or chains, just that worries about it's performance in poor weather are unfounded AFAIK.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', 'I')f they actually went to the bother of attempting to drive it through the snow we'd be able to do more than just speculate. But they aren't really looking beyond the California market.People can get proxies. I'm sure they could arrange to get one if they're really that interested.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', 'T')hat could be. In this case it's a trade off w/ safety.Wrong. The composites were chosen for weight, not safety. If they wanted safety they'd put 5mph bumpers on it. That's one of the problems in designing a car like a plane.I never said the composites weren't chosen for weight, I said that the vehicle as a whole was designed w/ passenger safety in mind, compared to a typical vehicle. Even then, I bet the composites go along way in terms of pedestrian safety if you really want to get into it. Compared that to a solid steel bumper and you'll probably find some significant differences in vehicle/pedestrian collisions.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', 'T')rying to determine what sells is a black art. Cars are not bought purely on their technical merits. Perhaps they should be, but they aren't.A black art? Hardly. If people build the right amount of a product that's in demand, and do everything else o.k. they'll be successful as a business. If they build too many and they don't, which you seem to think would be a good idea, then they'll have trouble.
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by mos6507 » Sun 11 Jan 2009, 12:49:12
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', '
')Toyota went so far as to assemble vehicles from spare parts. It doesn't seem like the were reluctant to sell them if they actually went to the trouble of building some of them from spare parts.
If they were so Pro-EV they wouldn't have stopped making them. They've taken a "wait and see" attitude towards lithium batteries and have made many statements against the idea of plugins and EVs in order to bash the Volt and rationalize their strategy of parallel hybrids. Honda has taken a similar stance. Companies like Nissan and Mitsubishi are being much more proactive about EVs today.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', '
')And in that case it's just as good if not better since it has a larger proportion of it's weigh over the wheels than most other vehicles.
But it also weighs a lot less than most other vehicles.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', '
')worries about it's performance in poor weather are unfounded AFAIK.
That remains to be seen.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', '
')A black art? Hardly. If people build the right amount of a product that's in demand, and do everything else o.k. they'll be successful as a business. If they build too many and they don't, which you seem to think would be a good idea, then they'll have trouble.
Determining what is "in demand" is not easy to predict. There is no surefire formula to make a car a hit.
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by yesplease » Sun 11 Jan 2009, 23:05:55
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', 'T')oyota went so far as to assemble vehicles from spare parts. It doesn't seem like the were reluctant to sell them if they actually went to the trouble of building some of them from spare parts.
If they were so Pro-EV they wouldn't have stopped making them.
They weren't necessarily Pro-EV, but they also weren't reluctant to make what they said they would. If anything I would say they were fairly neutral, and fairly customer oriented, like they've always been. If CARB says they have to make a few percent of sales be EVs, and they'll help by providing rebates, then Toyota made EVs. When the Bush administration stepped in on behalf of the lawsuit against CARB resulting in their drop of the program, then they stopped. They went w/ the flow, y0!
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', 'T')hey've taken a "wait and see" attitude towards lithium batteries and have made many statements against the idea of plugins and EVs in order to bash the Volt and rationalize their strategy of parallel hybrids.
When did they bash the Volt? The only argument I've seen against PHEVs was w/ a PHEV NiMH powered Prius, since the poor charging efficiency resulted in something w/ Carbon emissions that we roughly as high as the hybrid version, for more money. The larger manufacturers, if they're smart, will spread their R&D out since they don't know what's going to happen. For instance
this Toyota PR discussing PHEVs, NG powered vehicles, hybrids, and EVs. Like any other smart manufacturer, they are a bit more cautious about new products, unlike GM for instance, who made SUVs w/ $3-4/gallon gas.$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')eginning in late 2009, Toyota will start global delivery of 500 Prius PHVs powered by lithium-ion batteries. Of these initial vehicles, 150 will be placed with U.S. lease-fleet customers.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', 'H')onda has taken a similar stance. Companies like Nissan and Mitsubishi are being much more proactive about EVs today.Notice a pattern? The large companies tend to be opaque in terms of information, while the smaller companies are way more vocal, w/ the most vocal, Aptera, being the smallest. That's just how companies have been IMO. Granted, there are exceptions like GM, but they were on the ropes and needed to tell everyone about what they could do in the future or else they wouldn't get bailout money. Who would bailout a company making more of the same thing that got them in trouble in the first place?
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', 'A')nd in that case it's just as good if not better since it has a larger proportion of it's weigh over the wheels than most other vehicles.But it also weighs a lot less than most other vehicles.And it also has proportionally smaller tires, For instance a stock Civic may have 195/65-15s, while the Aptera will supposedly have 165/60-14s, so the Aptera will have a proportionally lower contact patch for it's weight. Furthermore, putting everything up front means it'll probably have as much weigh proportional to it's contact patch up front. In fact, I bet the switch to FWD was done for braking, since the Aptera has twice as much contact area in the front as it does in the back, unlike most vehicles, which have equal amounts and only need to alter brake bias for the amount of squat seen when braking.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', 'w')orries about it's performance in poor weather are unfounded AFAIK.That remains to be seen.Well, based on the basic physics, I don't see how it would be any worse. I suppose it could fall apart in the cold because they did a crappy job building it, but it's poor performance in extreme weather would be a result of it's crappy build quality as opposed to any inherent disadvantage three wheeled vehicles have in the snow. Like anything, toss some snow tires and maybe chains on it and it'll be fine. Probably better than most unloaded 2WD pickups since it will probably have more weight over the contact patch associated w/ the driven wheels.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', 'D')etermining what is "in demand" is not easy to predict. There is no surefire formula to make a car a hit.It depends based on scale based on what I've seen. For instance, even if custom steel bicycle frames aren't "in demand" they don't have to be if the demand from a few is high enough. Similarly, even if the Aptera isn't "in demand" among most, or as many as it was when gas was nearly $5/gallon, they only have to have a small fraction of the population really want one to start production.
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by Mesuge » Mon 12 Jan 2009, 07:26:24
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', ' ')Aptera was put in the limelight not for the aerodynamics. People don't give a crap about that.
(Many Aptera fans merely 'tolerate' the thing's spermatozoa looks.) It was because it was going to be the first production EV that was actually affordable.
Sorry, this one of most ridiculous claims on this forum ever..
Quite to the contrary, most of the Aptera customers are lured by the looks=uber-efficiency parameters..
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by mos6507 » Mon 12 Jan 2009, 09:44:58
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', '
')When did they bash the Volt?
Honda Bashes PluginsToyota bashes VoltToyota jumped on the plugin bandwagon only when they realized the ship was going to sail off without them.
Similarly, Ford has only now joined the fray, which seems to be induced solely by the strings attached to the government bailout money.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', '
')putting everything up front means it'll probably have as much weigh proportional to it's contact patch up front. In fact, I bet the switch to FWD was done for braking, since the Aptera has twice as much contact area in the front as it does in the back
Nice that it took them so long to figure out something so basic.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', '
')Similarly, even if the Aptera isn't "in demand" among most, or as many as it was when gas was nearly $5/gallon, they only have to have a small fraction of the population really want one to start production.
That contradicts your point earlier about how Aptera needing to stall while gas was cheap to avoid having huge warehouses of unsold cars. I don't think Aptera will find it difficult to sell in niche quantities. Whether they will build themselves into a sustainable "brand" that can scale production out several fold is another matter.
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by mos6507 » Mon 12 Jan 2009, 09:47:41
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Mesuge', '
')most of the Aptera customers are lured by the looks=uber-efficiency parameters..
Hard to say without taking a poll. The fact remains that there is no production EV for sale at the ~30K pricepoint and there won't be until the Volt comes out. So for those who have been chomping at the bit for an EV, the Aptera was going to be the only game in town for a while. So if they really wanted something that seated 4 or was more conventional looking, they were willing to just grin and bear it.
This is just the nature of competition that some people will buy your stuff because there isn't anything else out there that meets their needs more closely in that market segment. Once there
are more varied offerings for EVs, Aptera's market will shrink.
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by yesplease » Mon 12 Jan 2009, 15:42:36
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', '
')When did they bash the Volt?
Honda Bashes PluginsToyota bashes VoltToyota jumped on the plugin bandwagon only when they realized the ship was going to sail off without them.
Similarly, Ford has only now joined the fray, which seems to be induced solely by the strings attached to the government bailout money.
Do you have the text from the economist article? I wonder what Toyota actually said. For instance were they actually talking shiz about the Volt, or were they just talking about what they saw as it's shortcomings. No offense to ABG, but I like my gossip first hand thank ya very much.
As for Toyota jumping on the plug-in bandwagon, they were
testing working PHEVs right around when
GM was showcasing their laundry detergent powered concept, the Volt! If anyone is jumping on the PHEV bandwagon, it ain't Toyota...
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', 'p')utting everything up front means it'll probably have as much weigh proportional to it's contact patch up front. In fact, I bet the switch to FWD was done for braking, since the Aptera has twice as much contact area in the front as it does in the back
Nice that it took them so long to figure out something so basic.
Yeah, it took a while, but they finally went out and hired experienced individuals.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', 'S')imilarly, even if the Aptera isn't "in demand" among most, or as many as it was when gas was nearly $5/gallon, they only have to have a small fraction of the population really want one to start production.That contradicts your point earlier about how Aptera needing to stall while gas was cheap to avoid having huge warehouses of unsold cars. I don't think Aptera will find it difficult to sell in niche quantities. Whether they will build themselves into a sustainable "brand" that can scale production out several fold is another matter.How so? W/ gas at $5/gallon they had people lining up the door and could bang out a product that would sell even w/ some kinks. Now that gas is $2/gallon, there isn't that $2-3k/year difference in gas costs resulting in high demand, so what they have to build needs to have as many bugs worked out as possible to please the smaller consumer base they have now. Like I said, this also allows them to stall, essentially slow down production, so if gas prices go up again they can take advantage of it by pumping more vehicles out. Either way ya slice it, adjusting production according to demand is the only way they're going to succeed as a business. If they make too many too soon, they'll get hosed. If they make expensive (supply chain) versions poorly, they'll get hosed. They need to change w/the market in order to survive.
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by mos6507 » Mon 12 Jan 2009, 16:45:22
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', '
')Like I said, this also allows them to stall, essentially slow down production, so if gas prices go up again they can take advantage of it by pumping more vehicles out. Either way ya slice it, adjusting production according to demand is the only way they're going to succeed as a business. If they make too many too soon, they'll get hosed. If they make expensive (supply chain) versions poorly, they'll get hosed. They need to change w/the market in order to survive.
OK, you've softened my stance, but I'm still sticking by my prediction that they are screwed, although I'm not saying they have no chance.
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by yesplease » Mon 12 Jan 2009, 21:02:38
I think they'll behave like Corbin/Myers, puttering along making a few vehicles w/ very high margins (I'm guessing ~$5k for the initial version) until higher gas prices and/or a proved product give 'em a chance to pump out more, maybe even for overseas buyers. That said, you were right about lithium phosphate prices dropping IIRC, so maybe you'll get to bump this thread in a year or more w/ a "told ya so!"
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by yesplease » Thu 22 Jan 2009, 18:46:05
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by mos6507 » Thu 22 Jan 2009, 20:48:01
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', '[')url=http://www.autobloggreen.com/2009/01/21/apteras-pre-production-2e-rolls-out-of-the-factory/]Aptera rolls out pre-production 2E[/url], on it's knees.
You convinced me a while back to no longer feel as vehement as I did when I made the initial post. I'm waiting for them to ship to real customers before I let go of my pessimism. Even Tesla released a statement saying they were taking a loss on every vehicle. It's a long road to a sustainable company.
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by yesplease » Thu 22 Jan 2009, 21:18:28
I did? I'll probably poke fun at ya along the way if they succeed and myself if they fail. If ya don't like me joking around wrt this subject lmk.
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by mos6507 » Fri 23 Jan 2009, 00:04:27
I actually want Aptera to succeed so I'm more than willing to be proven wrong. This thread was really more of a way for me to vent about it than anything else. I still want to see how these do in the rain or snow. The burden is on them on that one.
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by Mesuge » Fri 23 Jan 2009, 04:45:28
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', '[')url=http://www.autobloggreen.com/2009/01/21/apteras-pre-production-2e-rolls-out-of-the-factory/]Aptera rolls out pre-production 2E[/url], on it's knees.
I'm kind of perplexed that nobody noticed that these new Aptera pictures feature photoshoped side view mirrors!
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by mos6507 » Fri 23 Jan 2009, 11:38:29
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Mesuge', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', '[')url=http://www.autobloggreen.com/2009/01/21/apteras-pre-production-2e-rolls-out-of-the-factory/]Aptera rolls out pre-production 2E[/url], on it's knees.
I'm kind of perplexed that nobody noticed that these new Aptera pictures feature photoshoped side view mirrors!
Whatever. The 'delivery' of these pre-production vehicles is pretty much a non-event at this time. It's just a way for them to show that they are still inching forward towards production at a time when people are angry over the delay. The important thing is for them to
stop dicking with the design so those on the reserve list can really know what they are going to wind up with, and so they can shift towards a mass production footing.
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by yesplease » Sat 24 Jan 2009, 02:31:30
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Mesuge', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', '[')url=http://www.autobloggreen.com/2009/01/21/apteras-pre-production-2e-rolls-out-of-the-factory/]Aptera rolls out pre-production 2E[/url], on it's knees.
I'm kind of perplexed that nobody noticed that these new Aptera pictures feature photoshoped side view mirrors!
I guess they could only afford to touch up the first one, so maybe they are on the ropes financially?
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