[lonewolf]

So, just how is the Mexican 'government' going to withhold product from their citizenry? Create intentional shortages? Drive up the price? Raise taxes significantly? All of the above? Just how long could that tactic possibly last? Mexicans for the most part are fully aware of the extent of their domestic oil production. If they perceive that their access to their own oil is being even minimally constrained/manipulated in ANY way, well ... all bets are off wrt the national government effecting/retaining any degree of 'control' during the collapse. IMO.

[eastbay]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', '
')
By the way lonewulf, I do appreciate your efforts at warning. Ive been saying for quite some time now to folks who might listen that Mexico is an important case to watch.

[lonewolf]

Over the short term, the degree/extent of effects in the US of Mexico in petro-collapse will largely depend on the rate at which they reduce exports.
If they started now and cut 10% per month, that could ease the US transition of other sources. But I doubt that they do this since they are utterly dependent upon that income (invested in graft). So, more true to form, they'll likely procrastinate with lies until they have no choice (aka NO oil) and are forced to dramatically slash deliveries on a shortened time frame.

I'm wondering how/when the oil speculators/traders/market will react, regardless of actual delivery or public pronouncements from Mexico - or not.

Over the long term, this 'transition point' - and much more to come - was wholly anticipated and utterly inevitable. No matter what happens when with Cantarell/to Mexico, one thing is certain. FAR worse is yet to come.

[OutOfGas]

I would not advise anyone to relocate to a state next to the Mexican border. When TSHTF additional millions of Mexicans will be heading north. There will be no way to stop them. Look for massive FEMA camps in the border states.

[AirlinePilot]

lonewulf,

Your being naive if you dont think that TPTB can with hold certain amounts of production and use that for export. How is the common man even going to know? How does he find out?

Shortages can have Many reasons, Im sure the Mexican Govt can be pretty creative.

[TheDude]

Avg 2009 Cantarell production: 638.74 kb/d, a decline of 406.76 kb/d from 2008.

Avg 2009 production for Mexico: 2951.08 kb/d, a decline of 234.56 kb/d from 2008. This is due in large part to boosted production from KMZ, which will in all likelihood crash the same way eventually.

[lonewolf]

Not that I (or anyone should) necessarily believe that particular number set but the values reported in your link provide an interesting contrast. First, if true, Mexico currently produces far more than enough crude to meet domestic demand (assuming reimport of refined product). Actually, according to those values, Cantarell could (and will soon be) at zero output and their export capacity would barely (minimally) be effected. Is that actually believable? The third largest field on the planet can and will go completely dry and this has no significant effect on the export capacity! Yeah Right!

Also of interest is the stated "Proven Reserves" of 11.650 billion barrels. [Not 11 comma 650 B]
Which, by simple division, at the current pro-suction rate of 2,791,500 bpd gives 11.4 years to achieve precisely F-all.
Or 5.7 years to burn through 1/2 of all their remaining oil (at steady output rates, which isn't possible IMO)
Good luck with that 'plan'.
===========
And at 'sky ape' (truncated version): You must 'think' that "the common man" is even more stupid than yourself. When they go to purchase fuel and there isn't any to buy and/or the price has doubled, they just aren't going to notice. How convenient. ROF. And although I may be naive, that would make you a self-alleged proud high-priest apologist for a dying paradigm.

[mcgowanjm]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lonewolf', 'A')s to "which one" you are, that is for you to determine.
=========

Not "my numbers" - rather from multiple allegedly informed sources - including (not limited to) http://www.energybulletin.net/node/41707
http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_id=73581
http://www.post1.net/lowem/entry/mexico ... in_7_years
http://www.greencarcongress.com/2008/01 ... ntare.html

However, regardless of which 'number set' one happens to chose/believe, the trend line is clear, accelerating and the end is nigh.

But you can 'prove' me wrong by 'kindly' showing us in 'official' terms where Mexico can continue to export a Mbpd to anyone and still meet domestic demand - if you can.

[TheDude]

Sources for my info:

You need the Net Imports info from the EIA, then factor in that Mexico imports 550 kb/d, while at the same time exporting 192 kb/d - in 2008, this figure could very likely vanish in coming years owing to state stricture to maintain adequate supplies for domestic markets, i.e., politics at work. If you subtract the 330 kb/d the US exports to Mexico you are left with 220 kb/d they obtain from other nations, primarily Venezuela.

The Pemex homepage has historic data for the country as a whole, for monthly updates to field production go to SIE :: Sistema de Información Energética. This is a Spanish-only site but it is easy enough to find the field data.

[pup55]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')ostly it was a controlled decline with a predictable outcome for the trend

[Cid_Yama]

From August 2009:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he giant Cantarell oil field, the world's eighth largest will be dead by the end of next year. Output peaked in 2004/2005 at around 2.2 million barrels a day (mbd) but will be well below the 0.5 mpd predicted by the end of 2009 - and extrapolating its apparently linear decline, it will be around zero by the end of 2010. Cantarell was a late field, since it was discovered in 1976, by which time there was a host of new technology available to make sure it kept pumping out oil, and by pressurizing the field, oil was pumped out at around 2 mbd for several years, when without this help a field would normally be expected to fall into decline.

However, a well only has so much oil to begin with and the faster this is recovered the quicker it becomes exhausted. It is likely therefore that the depletion side of Hubbert's peak will be a far steeper decline than the incline that rose to it, for many fields around the world, and it is debatable just how much recoverable oil there is all told. It has been suggested that the use of enhanced recovery techniques - i.e. pumping millions of barrels of seawater per day into e.g. the Ghawar field in Saudi Arabia has damaged the geological structure, meaning that less of its oil will ultimately be recovered.

[cipi604]

we already knew

[Cid_Yama]

Glad YOU knew. WE knew it was in rapid decline and predicted to be dead in 2014. Not 2010.

I hadn't seen anybody post the obituary for Cantarell yet. But apparently it's dead.

They are offering bonuses to any oil company that can bring in a big deepwater find quickly, offering bonuses for volume and speed.

We are talking desperation on the part of Mexico.

Bet they wish they could have the oil back they lost to Ixtoc.

[Quinny]

Anyone got detailed (monthly) figures for last couple of years on Cantarell?

[anador]

Just wondering, but will a major exporter suddenly curtailing trade effect different parts of the country disproportionately? Presumably a majority of cantarell oil flows to refineries in a certain region.

Does anyone know any statistics about this?

Could there be local effects experienced somewhere in the US that are not felt elsewhere?

[Pops]

Cid the blog you linked to cites no sources, there are some links for Viagra in the comments tho...

Mexico is our #2 supplier @ 1.2Mb/d way behind Canada at 2.5Mb/d followed by our other friends KSA and Venezuela at around 1.0. Mexico will be a net importer by '15 if you can believe the EIA

I don't know a lot about field tech but I think you can either get a lot of production fast or a greater percent recovered but not both at this point.

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('anador', 'C')ould there be local effects experienced somewhere in the US that are not felt elsewhere?

[Cid_Yama]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')hris Nelder, energy analyst and author of Profit from the Peak, also watches Mexico quite keenly and we both had an enormously long telephone call about Cantarell back in early January, of this year 2009. While we both have been tracking the decline of Mexico’s oil production for years, and knew that Cantarell was crashing, I was shocked when Chris said, “Oh yeah. That field could head below 500 thousand barrels a day (kb/day) by the end of this year.”

Now, one has to realize that this conversation was occurring just after New Year’s, and the most recently available data was for November, which had closed out just 5 weeks earlier. In that month, Cantarell produced 862 kb/day. In addition, Cantarell had started 2008 with January production of 1243 kb/day. Now let’s look at Cantarell’s production numbers for the most recent month of 2009, in July: 588 kb/day. As someone remarked on The Oil Drum, this looks to be a linear, rather than an exponential decline. Interesting observation. If Cantarell is indeed losing a steady 35 kb/day a month in production, then by Christmas of next year we’ll be close to zero.

[Pops]

Country......Aug-10.......YTD 2010.......Aug-09....... YTD 2009
MEXICO.......1,158.......... 1,119 ............1,057............1,119
EIA, 10/28/2010

[Cid_Yama]

From May 2010:

Cantarell Finally Slips Below 500 kbpd
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')s you can see from the chart, Cantarell Crude Oil Production 2008 – 2010, Mexico’s single giant finally slipped below 500 thousand barrels per day of production in May, to 499,286 kbpd. It’s still pretty astonishing to reflect that just two years ago, Cantarell was still producing a million barrels per day. The Mexican government, like the average layperson, continues to trade publicly in the idea that some new discovery could occur in Mexico that would alter the country’s production decline. But unlike the layperson, PEMEX knows better. (Indeed, insider reports on PEMEX indicate they’ve known for years).